Patience moderates the class cleavage in demand for redistribution

Previous studies on class voting have yielded mixed results linking income and demand for redistribution. Why do some poor people oppose redistribution, while some rich people support it? This article argues that an individual's level of patience, an important personal characteristic that influences how people calculate immediate and distinct outcomes, may moderate the effect of class on redistributive preference. In a one-shot game, redistribution between the rich and the poor is zero sum. When people extend their time horizons, however, the poor see the possibility of upward mobility, while the rich emphasize future losses, such as unemployment and economic instability. Consistent with the hypotheses, analyses of the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Study and a representative Taiwanese dataset from 2016 reveal a clear class cleavage in demand for redistribution among impatient poor and rich respondents, but the cleavage between their patient counterparts diminished. This pattern of convergence extends previous studies on upward mobility and risk perception theory.     

动态视角下中国城市群土地利用TFP测度及影响因素研究

提高城市群土地利用TFP对合理高效利用土地资源,协调好城市群经济发展、资源配置和环境保护具有重大理论和实践意义.文章运用DEA-Malmquist指数对2003—2016年动态视角下中国城市群土地利用TFP进行测度和时空演变分析,并利用Tobit回归模型对影响城市群土地利用TFP变化的因素进行深入研究.结果表明:从时间维度看,城市群土地利用TFP年均上升0.7％,城市群土地利用TFP增长由技术效率和技术进步"双核驱动",技术效率的提升主要与纯技术效率提升有关,规模效率是技术效率和土地利用TFP提升的瓶颈约束;从空间维度看,晋中、哈长、海峡西岸、中原、长江中游、北部湾、成渝、黔中、关中平原和兰西城市群土地利用TFP呈下降趋势,其余城市群土地利用TFP均呈上升趋势,且京津冀、呼包鄂榆、辽中南、长江三角洲、山东半岛和天山北坡城市群土地利用TFP增长为技术进步和技术效率"双核驱动";从影响因素看,人均GDP和年末金融机构人民币各项贷款余额对中国城市群土地利用TFP具有正向促进作用,城市财政支出占本市GDP的比重和人口密度具有负向阻碍作用.     

On the mathematics of the Jeffreys–Lindley paradox

This paper is concerned with the well known Jeffreys–Lindley paradox. In a Bayesian set up, the so-called paradox arises when a point null hypothesis is tested and an objective prior is sought for the alternative hypothesis. In particular, the posterior for the null hypothesis tends to one when the uncertainty, i.e., the variance, for the parameter value goes to infinity. We argue that the appropriate way to deal with the paradox is to use simple mathematics, and that any philosophical argument is to be regarded as irrelevant.     

基于动态因子Copula模型的行业间系统性风险分析

国际金融市场间的相关关系以及系统性风险受到很多学者的重视，本文则以我国股市的行业指数作为研究对象进行实证研究。通过构建动态因子Copula模型，文章对行业的日收益率数据进行了动态相关性分析，并基于风险预期占比度量了我国行业之间系统性风险的溢出效应。本文分析了2006年1月4日至2016年7月1日的28个行业指数数据，基于GAS动态负荷因子的变化路径来刻画其相关关系，通过风险预期占比来研究行业间的风险溢出效应。研究表明，各个行业指数收益率之间存在较强的关联性。就单个行业来说，化工行业与其他行业关系最为不稳定。就金融与非金融行业而言，金融行业对非金融行业的影响较大且较为平稳。本文所得研究结果可以为投资者和风险管理者在进行决策时提供一定的指导。     

Fixed T dynamic panel data estimators with multifactor errors

This article analyzes a growing group of fixed T dynamic panel data estimators with a multifactor error structure. We use a unified notational approach to describe these estimators and discuss their properties in terms of deviations from an underlying set of basic assumptions. Furthermore, we consider the extendability of these estimators to practical situations that may frequently arise, such as their ability to accommodate unbalanced panels and common observed factors. Using a large-scale simulation exercise, we consider scenarios that remain largely unexplored in the literature, albeit being of great empirical relevance. In particular, we examine (i) the effect of the presence of weakly exogenous covariates, (ii) the effect of changing the magnitude of the correlation between the factor loadings of the dependent variable and those of the covariates, (iii) the impact of the number of moment conditions on bias and size for GMM estimators, and finally (iv) the effect of sample size. We apply each of these estimators to a crime application using a panel data set of local government authorities in New South Wales, Australia; we find that the results bear substantially different policy implications relative to those potentially derived from standard dynamic panel GMM estimators. Thus, our study may serve as a useful guide to practitioners who wish to allow for multiplicative sources of unobserved heterogeneity in their model.     

Mixtures of Gaussian copula factor analyzers for clustering high dimensional data

Mixtures of factor analyzers is a useful model-based clustering method which can avoid the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional clustering. However, this approach is sensitive to both diverse non-normalities of marginal variables and outliers, which are commonly observed in multivariate experiments. We propose mixtures of Gaussian copula factor analyzers (MGCFA) for clustering high-dimensional clustering. This model has two advantages; (1) it allows different marginal distributions to facilitate fitting flexibility of the mixture model, (2) it can avoid the curse of dimensionality by embedding the factor-analytic structure in the component-correlation matrices of the mixture distribution.An EM algorithm is developed for the fitting of MGCFA. The proposed method is free of the curse of dimensionality and allows any parametric marginal distribution which fits best to the data. It is applied to both synthetic data and a microarray gene expression data for clustering and shows its better performance over several existing methods.     

正常商品的替代效应与收入效应研究

目前,国内外的微观经济学教科书中,关于正常商品的替代效应和收入效应的图形说明很不一致。主要是关于正常商品降价后新的预算线上的均衡点和原始预算线上的均衡点的位置不同。为此,在给定消费者效用函数和预算线方程的基础上,通过对正常商品降价(涨价)后带来的总效应、替代效应以及收入效应进行数理分析,使人们达到完整准确地理解和掌握正常商品的替代效应和收入效应的目的。     

马克思主义视阈下的生产力解读

迄今,国内外对生产力的含义众说纷纭,有"劳动生产率与因素综合说";有"人类的能力说";有"人对自然的作用说";有"关系系统说". 正确地把握马克思主义生产力含义,对于我们坚持"解放生产力,发展生产力"的思想和科学发展观有重大的理论意义和实践意义.重新审视马克思的原著,应该把生产力定义为:劳动者通过具体劳动生产出满足人们需要的使用价值时所表征出来的力量.按照这一观点,决定生产力的因素应该包括实体性因素、附着性因素或渗透性因素和运行性因素.     

影响蓖麻种子萌发因子的研究

对蓖麻种子萌发进行温度、水分、播种深度、种皮等处理试验，结果表明，温度和播种深度显著影响蓖麻种子萌发，其中土壤温度低和覆土厚是导致蓖麻种子萌发缓慢的主要因子;种皮的存在有利于菌麻种子萌发;土壤水分含量在10％以上能满足蓖麻种子萌发。     

试论城市化进程中的民族关系--以对临夏市的调查为视点

临夏市作为西北民族地区的一个小城市,在城市化进程中,其民族关系也会受到影响.针对临夏市的实际情况及学术界的研究现状,我们选取临夏市城市化进程中变化较大的几个变量,即民族居住格局的变迁、人口流动的影响、民族通婚的增减以及宗教因素,作为研究重点来衡量城市化进程中的民族关系.在此基础上得出临夏市各民族之间的关系总体上是平等、团结、互助、合作的社会主义新型民族关系,和谐平等的民族关系占据了主导地位的结论,并归纳出城市化进程中临夏市的民族关系具有主从性、敏感性、易发性、历史性、隐蔽性、复杂性等特点,最后提出临夏市各族群众必须解决自身的定位问题,建立临夏市和谐民族关系的良性运转机制.