GM Foods and the Misperception of Risk Perception

Public opposition to genetically modified (GM) food and crops is widely interpreted as the result of the public's misperception of the risks. With scientific assessment pointing to no unique risks from GM crops and foods, a strategy of accurate risk communication from trusted sources has been advocated. This is based on the assumption that the benefits of GM crops and foods are self-evident. Informed by the interpretation of some qualitative interviews with lay people, we use data from the Eurobarometer survey on biotechnology to explore the hypothesis that it is not so much the perception of risks as the absence of benefits that is the basis of the widespread rejection of GM foods and crops by the European public. Some respondents perceive both risks and benefits, and may be trading off these attributes along the lines of a rational choice model. However, for others, one attribute-benefit-appears to dominate their judgments: the lexicographic heuristic. For these respondents, their perception of risk is of limited importance in the formation of attitudes toward GM food and crops. The implication is that the absence of perceived benefits from GM foods and crops calls into question the relevance of risk communication strategies for bringing about change in public opinion.     

Toward Improved Communication about Wildland Fire: Mental Models Research to Identify Information Needs for Natural Resource Management

The management of natural- and human-induced wildland fires is an intricate process that must balance two considerations: that of fire as a necessary natural disturbance and that of the risks that fire poses. Reconciling tradeoffs between these risks and benefits is contingent upon informed, directed, and two-way communication between wildland fire managers and stakeholders. In an effort to aid with the design of such a communication effort, this study used mental models research to determine the unique wildland fire information and decision-making needs of stakeholders living at the wildland-urban interface of a fire-prone area. While the analysis revealed many similarities in how stakeholders conceptualized the risks and benefits of wildland fire, many misconceptions and important gaps in understanding on the part of both expert and nonexpert respondents were identified.     

因子模型在风险预算分析中的应用

风险预算在国外正赢得学术界、养老基金和资产管理领域等许多方面的广泛关注,并认为是组合管理的一种创新。国内投资者日益认识到投资组合管理与风险控制的重要意义,并近乎成为他们的第一要务。本文利用因子模型,通过风险预算这一投资管理和风险控制技术与方法,讨论投资组合因子风险分解并进行实证分析。     

正确把握新时代坚持和加强党的全面领导的逻辑理路——中国化马克思主义发展思想研究

党的十九大明确作出“坚持和加强党的全面领导”的重大政治论断,并把它作为新时代“党的建设”总要求的首要观点、坚持和发展中国特色社会主义“基本方略”的第一条提出来,这是中国共产党人进行党建工作的基本指导和根本遵循。新时代,正确把握坚持和加强党的全面领导的逻辑理路至关重要,因为这是我们党与生俱来和新时代历史使命的必然要求,是我们党带领人民战胜敌人的强大法宝和克服一切困难风险的定海神针;是执政党持之以恒正风肃纪和紧锣密鼓反腐惩恶的内在需要和客观要求。     

湖湘大地才是炎帝文化的母体——兼与中华炎黄文化研究会商讨“炎帝故里”问题

湖南是原始拜火教的发源地和稻作农业的诞生地,也是炎帝族中心聚落的所在地,湖南才是炎帝文化的母体。中华炎黄研究会认为山西高平是炎帝故里的说法缺乏关键证据支持,因而难以成立。     

社会网络对民间金融风险的作用——基于社会网络结构的理论与实证分析

社会网络对民间金融风险的影响已被广泛认可,但是,究竟什么样的网络结构有抑制风险的作用,什么样的网络结构有扩增风险的作用？以资金互助会为例,将互助会涉及的社会网络按结构特征分为单个会的会内网络和多个会的会间网络,研究可知：（1）越紧密的会内网络结构以及越大的网络规模越有利于民间金融风险的控制。（2）跨会网络具有抑制和扩增风险两种作用,它是协同监督和惩罚机制生效的基础,因而对风险具有控制作用,但这种作用只在中介成员为会首时才显著;同时,它也构成了风险传播的通道,导致资金被分散到多个会中,因而提升了系统性风险。     

网络时代农产品质量安全事件风险放大机制研究——基于价值累加理论的扎根分析

随着互联网的飞速发展,农产品质量安全事件借助网络媒体持续关联与聚合、发酵与扩散,极大地影响着公众的情感和态度,易引发集体非理性恐慌,网络时代信息扩散和迭代呈现全新特征和趋势,故加强农产品质量安全事件风险放大机制研究具有重要意义。基于斯梅尔塞的价值累加理论,结合“土坑酸菜”事件,利用Python技术获取媒体原始资料,对资料进行扎根编码分析,构建农产品质量安全事件风险放大机制模型。根据编码结果识别出农产品质量安全事件风险放大六大主范畴,包括结构性诱因、结构性紧张、一般化信念、(有效的)组织动员、社会控制、风险放大,将主范畴内容纳入价值累加理论六大因素中,分析表明农产品质量安全事件风险放大是以突发事件为分界点,分为前期蓄势、中期造势、紧急处理三个阶段,前期蓄势和中期造势阶段通过多轮循环相互反馈影响,最终放大农产品质量安全事件风险。在整个风险扩散过程中,网络是农产品质量安全事件风险的“社会放大站”,其加速了信息传播,强化了公众风险感知。本研究运用价值累加理论、基于宏观和微观整合层面,细化探究了网络时代农产品质量安全事件风险放大的完整过程机制,进一步完善了风险放大SARF研究框架,为相关研究做了有益补充。     

基于AHP的石油地质风险模糊综合评价体系研究

石油地质勘探风险的综合评价是石油地质勘探中确定目标系统的重要环节.文章利用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法,构建了石油地质勘探风险综合评价体系,详细讨论了评价指标含义、评价标准及评价要点,并提出了适宜的评价方法.     

金融知识获取圈层对农户农地抵押贷款参与的影响研究——基于失地风险感知的中介效应分析

积极稳妥推广农地抵押贷款融资业务,持续深化农村土地资产与金融资源的有机衔接是完善金融服务乡村振兴战略的关键内容,深入探究农户金融知识获取的人际圈层来源以及失地风险感知因素对完善农地抵押贷款相关制度建设具有重要意义。文章首先理论阐释了金融知识获取圈层、失地风险感知对农户农地抵押贷款参与的影响,详细剖析了农户失地风险感知的中介机理;然后采用因子分析法测度金融知识获取圈层变量,提取4个公共因子分别界定为亲属关系圈、朋友关系圈、乡邻关系圈和机构参与圈;最后以陕西、宁夏、山东三省农地抵押贷款试点地区1 312户农户调查数据为样本,利用Logit模型和Bootstrap中介效应检验方法,实证分析了金融知识获取圈层、失地风险感知对农户农地抵押贷款参与的影响,并揭示了失地风险感知的中介效应类型和数值大小。研究结果显示：金融知识获取圈层正向促进农户农地抵押贷款参与,其中金融知识获取亲属关系圈的促进作用大于机构参与圈;金融知识获取圈层负向影响农户失地风险感知,机构参与圈的影响最大,亲属关系圈次之,朋友关系圈最小;在四个金融知识获取圈层下,失地风险感知均对农户农地抵押贷款参与具有负向影响;失地风险感知在金融...