Adaptive Test for Periodicity in Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models

This article is devoted to the study of the periodicity testing problem in a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model. The local asymptotic normality (LAN) property is shown via the adapted sufficient conditions due to Swensen (1985 Swensen , A. R. ( 1985 ). The asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio for autoregressive time series with a regression trend . Journal of Multivariate Analysis 16 : 54 – 70 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Moreover, the LAN of the central sequence is established. First, we consider the case where the innovation density is specified and we obtain a parametric local asymptotic test. Second, we construct an adaptive test in the case where this density is unspecified but symmetric. The performances of these established tests are shown via simulation studies.     

Testing Equality of Mean Vectors in Two Sample Problem with Missing Data

Finding the influence of traffic accident on the road is helpful to analyze the characteristics of traffic flow, and take reasonable and effective control measures. Here, the detrended fluctuation analysis method is applied to investigate the complexity of time series in mixed traffic flow with a blockage induced by an accident. As a parameter to depict the long-term evolutionary behavior of the time series in traffic flow, the scaling exponent is analyzed. According to the scaling exponent, it is shown that the traffic flow time series can display long-range correlation characteristics, short-range correlation characteristics, and non-power-law relation in the long-range correlation characteristics, which is strongly dependent on the entering probability of vehicle, the ratio of slow vehicle and the blockage duration time.     

Dirichlet Processes in Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models

In this article, we use two efficient approaches to deal with the difficulty in computing the intractable integrals when implementing Gibbs sampling in the nonlinear mixed effects model (NLMM) based on Dirichlet processes (DP). In the first approach, we compute the Laplace's approximation to the integral for its high accuracy, low cost, and ease of implementation. The second approach uses the no-gaps algorithm of MacEachern and Müller (1998 MacEachern , S. , Müller , P. ( 1998 ). Estimating mixtures of Dirichlet process models . Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 7 : 223 – 238 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to perform Gibbs sampling without evaluating the difficult integral. We apply both approaches to real problems and simulations. Results show that both approaches perform well in density estimation and prediction and are superior to the parametric analysis in that they can detect important model features, such as skewness, long tails, and multimodality, whereas the parametric analysis cannot.     

Interval Estimation for the Difference of Two Independent Variances

Analytical methods for interval estimation of differences between variances have not been described. A simple analytical method is given for interval estimation of the difference between variances of two independent samples. It is shown, using simulations, that confidence intervals generated with this method have close to nominal coverage even when sample sizes are small and unequal and observations are highly skewed and leptokurtic, provided the difference in variances is not very large. The method is also adapted for testing the hypothesis of no difference between variances. The test is robust but slightly less powerful than Bonett's test with small samples.     

On a statistic useful in dimensionality reduction in multivariable linear stochastic system

In this paper we study the sampling properties of a test statistic which has important applications in the area of linear stochastic control systems with multi-inputs and multi-outputs. The statistic is the ratio of a partial sum of the eigenvalues of a sample covariance matrix and its trace. It turns out that using a method due to Sugiura we may derive a useful approximation for its distribution up to and including terms of order l/n, where n denotes the appropriate size. Numerical illustrations using real data are given.     

Multiperiod Forecasts of Interest Rates

The accuracy of forecasts of interest rates over different forecast horizons and time periods is examined. The results indicate a deterioration in “absolute” forecast accuracy measured by the mean absolute error and the root mean squared error but no decrease in “relative” accuracy measured by the Theil coefficient with an increase in the forecast span. The results also indicate a decline in accuracy in periods of volatile interest rates. Support is found for the hypothesis that the ratio of the variability of predicted changes to that of actual changes falls with an increase in the forecast horizon.     

Estimation of Current-Quarter Gross National Product by Pooling Preliminary Labor-Market Data

Two methods of using labor-market data as indicators of contemporaneous gross national product (GNP) are developed. The establishment survey data are used by inverting a partial-adjustment equation for hours. A second GNP forecast can be extracted from the household survey by using Okun's law. Using preliminary rather than final data adds about .2 to .4 percentage point to the expected value of the root mean squared errors and changes the weights that the pooling procedure assigns to the two forecasts. The use of preliminary rather than final data results in a procedure that assigns more importance to the Okun's-law forecast.     

Amemiya‘s generalized least squares and tests of overidentification in simultaneous equation models with qualitative or limited dependent variables

Amemiya's generalized least squares method for the estimation of simultaneous equation modeis with qualitative or limited dependent variables is known to be efficient relative to many popular two stage estimators. This note points out that test statistics for overidentification restrictions can be obtained as by-products of Amerniya's generalized least squares procedure. Amemiya's procedure is shown to be a minimum chisquare method. The Amemiya procedure is valuable both for efficient estimation and for model evaluation of such models.     

Approximate Bayes estimation of the parameters and reliability function of a mixture of two inverse Weibull distributions under Type-2 censoring

The main goal of this paper is to develop the approximate Bayes estimation of the five-dimensional vector of the parameters and reliability function of a mixture of two inverse Weibull distributions (MTIWD) under Type-2 censoring. Usually, the posterior distribution is complicated under the scheme of Type-2 censoring and the integrals that are involved cannot be obtained in a simple explicit form. In this study, we use Lindley's [Approximate Bayesian method, Trabajos Estadist. 31 (1980), pp. 223–237] approximate form of Bayes estimation in the case of an MTIWD under Type-2 censoring. Later, we calculate the estimated risks (ERs) of the Bayes estimates and compare them with the corresponding ERs of the maximum-likelihood estimates through Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, we analyse a real data set using the findings.     

Diagnostic tools in generalized Weibull linear regression models

We propose some statistical tools for diagnosing the class of generalized Weibull linear regression models [A.A. Prudente and G.M. Cordeiro, Generalized Weibull linear models, Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 39 (2010), pp. 3739–3755]. This class of models is an alternative means of analysing positive, continuous and skewed data and, due to its statistical properties, is very competitive with gamma regression models. First, we show that the Weibull model induces ma-ximum likelihood estimators asymptotically more efficient than the gamma model. Standardized residuals are defined, and their statistical properties are examined empirically. Some measures are derived based on the case-deletion model, including the generalized Cook's distance and measures for identifying influential observations on partial F-tests. The results of a simulation study conducted to assess behaviour of the global influence approach are also presented. Further, we perform a local influence analysis under the case-weights, response and explanatory variables perturbation schemes. The Weibull, gamma and other Weibull-type regression models are fitted into three data sets to illustrate the proposed diagnostic tools. Statistical analyses indicate that the Weibull model fitted into these data yields better fits than other common alternative models.