对理论联系实际学风发展的历史回顾及现实思考

理论联系实际是我们党的优良学风,是马列主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想一贯坚持的原则。我们党的理论联系实际的优良学风是在党的光辉历程中,在正反两方面经验教训的基础上逐渐形成并发扬光大。大力弘扬理论联系实际的马克思主义优良学风,既是现阶段社会发展的需要,也是党的建设工作客观实际的要求,具有非常重要的实践意义。     

Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI‐L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk‐reducing effectiveness of WHTI‐L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI‐L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness‐to‐pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI‐L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14–26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5–6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit‐cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.     

基于旅西日本游客旅游选择行为的西安旅游市场分析

根据在全国六大旅游热点城市所做的旅游市场调查的数据结果，对旅西日本游客的旅游选择行为进行了研究，同时进一步有针对性地对西安日本客源市场进行了SWOT分析，在此基础上，对西安旅游业的发展提出了相关对策建议。     

潜在客户资产测量研究

客户资产由当前客户资产和潜在客户资产两部分组成，对潜在客户资产测量问题尚未有系统的研究。在客户购买行为建模研究的基础上，提出由客户获取预测分析、客户购买行为分析和客户费用分析组成的潜在客户资产测量方法框架，总结了可用的模型，并用实证案例说明；提出利用当前潜在客户资产分析矩阵分析指导投资和管理决策的方法。     

中国节节麦的细胞遗传学研究及有关问题探讨

应用染色体组分析法,对新疆节节麦、黄河流域节节麦、伊朗节节麦和中东节节麦的D染色体组进行了较系统的比较分析,结果表明:新疆节节麦与伊朗、中东两地节节麦在染色体组水平上无明显差异,其差异仅体现在染色体的细微结构组成上;臂内倒位是引起染色体结构组成上细微分化的主要原因。黄河流域节节麦与新疆节节麦的染色体组极为相近;其D组染色体无论在染色体组水平上,还是在染色体细微结构组成上均无差异。本文还就中国节节麦与中国特有六倍体普通小麦的起源演化,中国节节麦种质资源在现代小麦育种中的应用等问题进行了讨论。     

稀土元素Ce对Al－Mg－Si合金断裂韧性的改善及其细观机理分析

用三点弯曲（ＴＰＢ）裂纹试件测定平面应变条件下的断裂韧性Ｊ１ｃ与ＪＲ，试验结果表明，稀土Ｃｅ较大地提高了Ａｌ－Ｍｇ－Ｓｉ合金的起裂韧度值Ｊ１ｃ，特别是，显著地改善了合金的裂纹扩展抗力ＪＲ。金相显微观察和电镜分析表明，稀土Ｃｅ改善了材料的初始细观结构（材料在加载前的组织结构），改变了材料的细观损伤特点，发展了材料的含损伤塑性。     

水资源跨流域配置的经济学分析

由于我国水资源空间分布不均匀的突出特点 ,大型跨流域调水工程已经成为我国国民经济可持续发展的重要支撑。文章从水资源的经济特点出发 ,结合南水北调中线工程 ,对水资源跨流域配置的市场供求、成本收益等资源经济学问题进行了分析 ,并对社会主义市场经济条件下水资源跨流域配置的利益分配机制进行了探讨     

农民失地问题分析及对策建议

本文从六盘水失地农民的现状入手,分析失地农民的成因及存在问题,提出政府在推进工业化和城市化的过程中应坚持公平公正和群众利益至上的原则,积极推进土地产权和征地制度的创新、社会保障和就业制度的创新以及农村基层民主与法律制度的创新,给失地农民以公平的国民待遇、完整的土地财产权和自由的发展空间。     

汽轮发电机组轴系磁阻尼器抑振方案优选计算分析

采用有限元与轴承及磁阻尼器动特性线性简化模型建立大型汽轮机转子系统不平衡振动响应计算模型;选择典型不平衡状态,采用多种磁阻尼器布置方案对BBC公司汽轮发电机组轴系振动的抑振效果进行分析对比优选,结果表明在中压转子段采用大阻尼参数磁阻尼器抑振效果最佳。     

Summary of the Workshop on Issues in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Methods for Developmental Toxicology

This report summarizes the proceedings of a conference on quantitative methods for assessing the risks of developmental toxicants. The conference was planned by a subcommittee of the National Research Council's Committee on Risk Assessment Methodology ⁴ in conjunction with staff from several federal agencies, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, U.S. Consumer Products Safety Commission, and Health and Welfare Canada. Issues discussed at the workshop included computerized techniques for hazard identification, use of human and animal data for defining risks in a clinical setting, relationships between end points in developmental toxicity testing, reference dose calculations for developmental toxicology, analysis of quantitative dose-response data, mechanisms of developmental toxicity, physiologically based pharmacokinetic models, and structure-activity relationships. Although a formal consensus was not sought, many participants favored the evolution of quantitative techniques for developmental toxicology risk assessment, including the replacement of lowest observed adverse effect levels (LOAELs) and no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) with the benchmark dose methodology.