股价波动的本质特征是什么?——基于非线性动力学分析视角的研究

基于金融复杂性研究视角,采用非线性动力学分析方法,分析股市波动的本质特征与形成机制。结果表明股市波动具有显著的分形动力学特征与长期记忆效应;股票市场存在低维混沌,具有内生的不稳定性;股价行为有其内在的非线性动力学形成机制,揭示出金融市场的正反馈机制、投资者的异质性与相互影响是引发市场复杂行为的重要途径;提出了非线性金融理论的研究方向并阐明了对于金融实践的意义。     

时滞双线性系统状态反馈镇定控制器的设计

许多工程系统中含有时滞,时滞是系统不稳定和破坏系统性能的一个主要原因。因此如何镇定时滞系统具有重要的工程意义。本文讨论一类多输入多输出无阻尼时滞双线性系统的镇定问题。借助李亚普诺夫泛函法得到无记忆静态状态镇定控制器的设计。     

The triggers of local and distant search: Relative magnitude and persistence in explaining acquisition relatedness

Research on problemistic search has assumed negative attainment discrepancy to be the trigger of both local and distant search. Extending this research, we present and compare two additional triggers: (1) relative attainment discrepancy, which reflects how much a firm's attainment discrepancy deviates from its past negative attainment discrepancies; and (2) persistent attainment discrepancy, which reflects how often the firm experiences below-aspirations performance. Our triggers for distant search model a behavioral explanation for the timing and relatedness of acquisitions. We find support for baseline arguments of problemistic search whereby firms increase both industry- and skill-related acquisitions when they perform below aspirations. When they persistently perform below aspirations, however, this likelihood is reduced and firms engage in acquisitions that are more unrelated, thereby providing support for the notion of expanding search boundaries from local to distant search. Of the two triggers of distant search proposed, relative attainment discrepancy does not induce firms to expand search boundaries. Our results indicate that persistent attainment discrepancy is a key construct to consider when studying the expansion of search boundaries.     

Collecting feedback as a tool to reduce care paralysis: something for family group conferencing coordinators?

Family group conferencing (FGC) coordinators in public mental healthcare are confronted with clients who have little faith in professionals and organizations, who hold off decisions in their family life, who avoid care and who sometimes behave in a hostile manner. A lack of initiative to deal with their situation is not only reserved for clients – all bystanders, including professionals, can suffer from it. The multiplicity and severity of the client's problems lead to a situation wherein everyone involved waits for the initiative of the other. The independence of the FGC coordinator – a fellow citizen, who is free of organizational loyalties and comes to assist other citizens in establishing a plan – seems to work well with the client group of the public mental healthcare. However, the coordinator cannot always prevent deferral or failure of conferences. Drawing on empirical and theoretical findings, this paper considers the possibility of collecting feedback as a way to contribute positively to the alliance between FGC coordinators and those for whom a conference is deployed. We highlight findings from three case studies that centred on multiproblem families. The findings indicate the importance of feedback theory for FGC coordinators in enhancing trust and engagement.     

Evaluating the Temporal Location of Feedback: Providing Feedback Following Performance vs. Prior to Performance

In order to make feedback as effective as possible, it is important to understand its function in the three-term contingency (TTC) and the impact of various factors involved in delivering feedback. Timing of feedback is one factor that can affect the impact of feedback on learner’s behavior. An analysis of timing of feeback may help us getting closer to better understanding how feedback functions in the TTC. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of feedback at different temporal locations. Specifically, feedback was provided either immediately (a) after a teaching session or (b) before the following teaching session, on teaching performance of undergraduate psychology students. The results indicated that feedback provided before the teaching session was more effective in improving teaching skills than feedback that was provided after the session. These findings suggest that feedback may function primarily as an antecedent to future performance and not necessarily as a consequence for past performance. However, the behavioral mechanism that explains these results is not yet clear. Future studies should investigate this further by manipulating the content of feedback prior to the teaching performance.     

消费者参与社交网络营销因素的实证分析

消费者参与度是影响社交网络营销的重要因素,立足于我国互联网变迁的时代背景,以部分拥有互联网购物经验的消费者作为研究对象,通过对消费者社交网络营销参与度的市场调查资料的分析,发现影响消费者参与社交网络营销活动的因素主要是:消费者的性格特征,风险因素,营销形式,营销内容以及营销环节。基于此,提高消费者对社交网络营销的参与度,应从几个方面着手:注重互动沟通,提升品牌形象;线上线下有效互动,进行整合营销传播;创新营销方式,凸显营销价值;聆听网络口碑,关注意见领袖。     

Every Minute Counts: Using Process Improvement and Performance Feedback to Improve Patient Flow in an Emergency Department

Prolonged emergency department (ED) visits are associated with a number of adverse outcomes for patients as well as lower patient satisfaction scores and increased costs. Several factors that influence the length of ED visits are out of the control of hospital employees, but some opportunities exist to improve performance. For this study, the ED department of a 150-bed hospital in the southeastern United States wanted to improve door-to-discharge time. To do so, a subprocess of door-to-discharge time was targeted, door-to-order. After analyzing the process, the team created standard orders for the 10 most common presenting conditions in the ER with preapproval, allowing nurses to submit the orders without the provider first visiting the patient. Following the process change, daily feedback was added to increase utilization of the preapproved orders. Reductions in door-to-order times and door-to-discharge were observed and patient satisfaction remained stable. Implications for future research in this area are discussed.     

An Evaluation of Staff Preference for Graphic Characteristics

The purpose of the current study was to assess staff preference for how data were displayed on graphs. Specifically, preference for line versus bar graphs was assessed, as well as preference for data displayed as one date in time versus multiple dates showing performance trends. A secondary purpose of the study was to assess staff comprehension of the data presented across different graphic displays. Participants included 60 entry-level direct care staff and 25 seasoned therapists. Therapists had more advanced training in applied behavior analysis than the direct care staff. The vast majority of direct care staff preferred data depicted as a bar graph versus data depicted as a line graph, even preferring a single bar graph over a time-series line graph. The therapists preferred time-series line graphs to bar graphs. Most staff demonstrated understanding of the data, regardless of how it was depicted.     

一般进化的微观机制

一般进化在系统内微观子系统层次上的微观机制 ,是涨落单元内外部子系统之间互为因果循环的正反馈类型的相互作用。其本质特征 ,是双方之间作用的非对称性 ,表现为一方的属性支配着另一方属性的变化 ,另一方丧失自己原先的属性而以一方的属性为自己的新属性。这种相互作用同时具有协同和放大效应 ,从而使涨落单元由局部迅速放大到整体 ,而形成一个新的有序结构     

Digitally connected services: Improvements through customer-initiated feedback

A growing number of manufacturers advances their offerings by providing digitally connected services (DCS) that require companies to revisit quality improvements based on customer feedback. This paper explores how firms use customer-initiated feedback for quality improvement of DCS. DCS entail a human-to-digital interface that enables ongoing provider-customer interaction. Based on a case study of a manufacturer that offers DCS, we conclude that the scope of improvements extends into the use phase of services, and customer-initiated feedback is both codified and personalized. In particular, systematic use of customer-initiated feedback for improving DCS requires three distinct efforts. First, channeling aims to capture feedback provided by a large number of customers through various entries into the organization. Second, processing refers to utilizing this feedback within the organization for service improvements. Third, knowledge conversion seeks to turn learning from feedback into knowledge that is dealt effectively across various functions such as quality management and customer services. In addition, research should investigate further quality improvement and customer feedback of services that are digitally configured by customers themselves.