Partnership and Parenthood in Post‐transitional Societies: Will Specters Be Exorcised?

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to reconsider partnership and parenthood in post-transitional societies from the viewpoint of sociology. As is well known, after the end of the Baby Boom, albeit with variations in the tempo and the level, a considerable decline in fertility has occurred in industrialized countries. Furthermore, this decline has occurred in tandem with the transformation of partnership such as an increase in the number of cohabited couples. The causes and effects of this decline in fertility have hitherto been studied by social scientists such as economists and demographers. Although the family has been one of the main research interests for sociologists for a long while, the changes in partnership and fertility behavior in developed countries have not been sufficiently argued from the perspective of sociological theory on family. In this article, we will initially compare and contrast two changes in fertility patterns: the first of these is the fertility decline that occurred around the latter half of the nineteenth century; the second is the change that has been observed in industrialized countries since the second half of the 1960s. We will then discuss the difference between economic and ideational approaches in the explanation of partnership and fertility changes. Finally, we will examine the convergence and the divergence theories on family change. This article will conclude with an emphasis on the importance of the middle-range theories.     

中国基金非理性问题研究：现状、动因及路径选择

2006年无疑是中国基金最引人注目的一年。在这一年中,基金收益不断上涨,基金销售异常火爆,基金市场空前繁荣。基金业的迅速发展有其内在原因,但也有非理性的一面,这种非理性的上涨背后隐藏着深刻的危机,充分认识并及时防范其风险尤为重要。本文试图对当前基金市场的非理性加以分析,并提出预防风险相关制度安排,引导基金业又好又快健康发展。     

Women's Scientific Employment and Family Formation: A Longitudinal Perspective

We focus here on the retention of highly qualified women scientists in science‐based employment in England and Wales. Using linked Census records from the Longitudinal Study 1971–1991 we show that women's education and employment rates in science, engineering and technology increased somewhat, although some fields show persistently low representation. We then compare retention in employing women with health‐related degrees with that of women with degrees in science, engineering and technology, showing that the latter group has markedly lower retention rates. Those who stay on in science‐based employment have children later than other types of graduate and their rates of non‐motherhood are higher. Four‐fifths of women in health‐related occupations were mothers, compared to only two‐fifths in science, engineering and technology. Our findings have implications for policymakers who wish to make best use of the knowledge base: attention should be paid to retention, as well as the more usual focus on qualifications and recruitment. The findings also suggest the potential for institutionally based theories to explain why highly qualified women have such low retention rates in science‐based employment.     

The analysis of age-specific fertility patterns via logistic models

In this paper, we introduce logistic models to analyse fertility curves. The models are formulated as linear models of the log odds of fertility and are defined in terms of parameters that are interpreted as measures of level, location and shape of the fertility schedule. This parameterization is useful for the evaluation, and interpretation of fertility trends and projections of future period fertility. For a series of years, the proposed models admit a state-space formulation that allows a coherent joint estimation of parameters and forecasting. The main features of the models compared with other alternatives are the functional simplicity, the flexibility, and the interpretability of the parameters. These and other features are analysed in this paper using examples and theoretical results. Data from different countries are analysed, and to validate the logistic approach, we compare the goodness of fit of the new model against well-known alternatives; the analysis gives superior results in most developed countries.     

Family Changes in the Context of Lowest-Low Fertility: The Case of Japan

Abstract: Japan has currently one of the lowest-low fertility rates in the world. Low fertility in Japan is due to the extreme postponement of marriage and childbearing, and their weak recuperation in women in their 30s, as well as very low levels of cohabitation and extra-marital fertility. Both changing and unchanged aspects of families are related to lowest-low fertility in Japan. Although premarital sexual activities have increased, women's contraceptive initiative is very weak: they may be connected with weak partnership formation. "Parasite singles", "freeters", or "NEETs", probably related to weak family formation, have increased, but they may be connected with strong filial bondage derived from the traditional family system, i.e. Women have been normatively, educationally, and occupationally emancipated, but gender norms are currently divided in half among Japanese people, which may deter the revising of working conditions for women with children, leading to delaying family formation among working women. Lowest-low fertility conversely brings about family changes. Its direct effect is the increase of lifetime celibacy and childless couples, which may jeopardize the universality of families. Its indirect effect is through policy response to low fertility as well as labor shortages and population aging: recently, both family and labor policies have been strengthened to make it easier for working women to continue their jobs after marriage and childbirth, which might in turn promote family formation in Japan.     

Increasing Childlessness in Germany and Japan: Toward a Childless Society?

Abstract: This paper focuses on childlessness in Germany and Japan and its sociological meanings in family formation in postmodern societies. First, it shows the trends of fertility decline and increasing childlessness, and clarifies the similarities and differences in both countries, by comparing parity composition, educational attainment, and other socioeconomic correlates of childlessness. Second, using the data of attitudinal surveys, such as the 2003 Population Policy Acceptance Study (PPAS) in Germany and the 13th National Fertility Survey (JNFS; 2005) in Japan, the reasons for having no children are observed. Third, referring to the discussions of German scholars, it tries to explain the sociological meanings of childlessness and to describe the development toward a childless society (even if it's demographically not sustainable) as one of the possible consequences of the Second Demographic Transition. Important findings are as follows: (1) In Germany the fertility decline began early in the mid-1960s but in Japan later from mid-1970s so that the increase of childlessness has been a little delayed. The proportion of childless women in Western Germany increased to 28% for the 1967 cohort. In Japan, it has increased to 12.7% for the 1960 cohort, but is expected to reach 30% for the 1970 cohort. (2) The educational gap in childlessness is clearly observed in Germany; however, this is not so simple in Japan. Corresponding with the increase of childlessness, the desired number of children in average is declining. The emergence of a child-free culture is observed in Germany by PPAS, but not yet in Japan by JNFS. (3) Polarization may proceed further in both countries, between childless people and people with many children.     

生育文明与我国未来生育率控制

我国的生育率变化一直以来都与生育文明的发展有着密切的关系。深厚的传统生育文化支持着我国农业社会的高生育水平,这在历史上起到过一定的积极作用,但是庞大的人口数量越来越成为我国经济社会发展的包袱。我国现阶段生育率已经在计划生育政策的控制下,达到了一个较低的标准。但是,这种低生育水平还很不稳定,也不可避免的带来了一些社会问题。随着我国经济发展和社会转型,推进生育文明的发展将成为稳定低生育水平,实现适度人口规模的最好方法。     

责任与法律责任

责任概念的变迁,显示了责任具有内外两个层面的内涵。随着社会高度组织化和功能分化,法律系统从社会系统中分立出来,法律责任也随之从责任分立出来,成为体现责任外在性层面最重要的表征。责任与法律责任的变迁可归因于责任内在性层面的发展动力。然而,当下法律责任对责任内在性诉求的回应尚且滞后,期待公法责任在责任内涵的变迁中发挥更重要的作用。     

心理期望：政治认同生成的内隐机制

政治认同是公民对国家政治诸要素所产生的一种心理上的归属感。心理期望作为政治认同的内隐机制,从需要因素看,可分为自发性政治认同需要和引致性政治认同需要。而对需要的满足,则取决于主体的自我政治期望和社会政治期望的契合程度及运行路向。现实问题往往因对期望的认知错位而产生各异的政治认同距离进而给个体和政府等带来心理压力。如何把这种压力保持在一定的安全阈值范围内而使政府和个人在期望心理供求方面处于大体均衡,成为优化政治认同效果的现实选择。     

Interpretation of Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Fundamental Family Planning Work at Grassroots Level by NHFPC

正On 2 July 2014,National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC)issued Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Fundamental Family Planning Work at Grassroots Level,(hereinafter referred to as Guiding Opinions).The document is interpreted as follows.Necessity for Formulating Guiding Opinions The central government has emphasized for many times that family planning can only be strengthened but not weakened in the work of institutional reconstruction and adjustment and improvement of fertility policy.In order to