中国人口分布的时空演化研究：直面社会与经济双重困扰

人口是建立社会与经济之间联系的中介变量,人口空间分布又是全球性问题。当代中国,移民作为城市化的结果,其受社会经济发展水平决定;在人口、经济和社会互动发展过程中,城市化则是人口城乡和区域空间分布演变的主要内容。在时间层面上,社会经济发展模式和演化内生于人口数量和结构转变;在空间视阈下,人口地域分布适宜性包括城乡和区域两方面内容。通过梳理相关文献,总结人口空间分布特征事实,发现时空演化规律具有重要的学术创新和实践指导价值。作为第一人口大国,谋求社会与经济稳定发展是解决人口问题的基础之基础,中国人口与发展再次行至十字路口,人口研究不能刻舟求剑;其不仅是重大学术性命题,更是社会、经济性实践难题。研究分析需要立足中国实情,贯穿全文的逻辑主线是人口转变和空间分布,主题是人口、社会和经济协调发展,目标是建构中国人口空间分布理论体系。     

基于农民意愿的青岛市新农村社区建设问题调查与分析

针对目前我国社会主义新农村建设实践出现脱离实际的现象,有必要从农民意愿的视角研究新农村社区的建设问题。通过问卷调查与实地访谈的方法,对新农村社区建设过程中农民的搬迁意愿、农民所担忧的问题、农民对新农村社区建设的诉求等进行调查与分析,发现从整体上看青岛市农村居民是支持新农村社区建设的,他们反映的一些问题和诉求也正是各级政府改进新农村社区建设工作的着力点。在调查分析的基础上对青岛市新农村社区建设问题提出对策建议。     

Updating the Debate on Intergenerational Fairness in Pension Reform

This article examines the arguments involved in claims about the fairness or unfairness of government policies that would require current working generations to bear the full impact of their lower fertility on the costs of retirement pensions. The analysis is set in the context of a wider review of debate on the role of the idea of generational fairness in assessing options for reform under conditions of population ageing. The article considers three questions: whether generational fairness poses a serious problem for pay‐as‐you‐go pension schemes; whether it is reasonable to assess the generational fairness of pension policy in isolation from other kinds of generational transfer; and whether there is a good case for redistribution from future generations in favour of the baby boom generation.     

Recent European fertility patterns: Fitting curves to ‘distorted’ distributions

Recent patterns of fertility in Europe show marked differences between countries. Recent United Kingdom and Irish fertility curves show ‘distortions’ in terms of a ‘bulge’ in early age fertility, distinct from the smoother curves of other European countries. These patterns may not be adequately described by mathematical functions used by previous studies to model fertility curves. A mixture model with two component distributions may be more appropriate. The suitability of the simple and mixture Hadwiger functions is examined in relation to the fertility curves of a number of European countries. While the simple Hadwiger model fits recent period age-specific fertility distributions for some countries, others which display a ‘bulge’ in early age fertility require a mixture Hadwiger model. Some of the parameters of the Hadwiger models appear to be related to familiar demographic indices. The simple and mixture Hadwiger models appear useful in describing and comparing fertility patterns across European countries.     

丰产的文化理性解释——云南诺邓历史上两套丰产仪式之研究

云南诺邓历史上同时存在两套丰产仪式:一套是接水魂仪式,以祈求卤水丰旺、井盐丰产;另一套是舞龙求雨仪式,以祈求雨水(淡水)丰沛、农耕丰产。从井盐生产的实践理性看,卤水与淡水之间构成此消彼长的对立关系,两套丰产仪式的并存看似是相互矛盾的。看似相悖的两套丰产仪式要诉诸文化理性的解释才能得以全面理解。在文化理性的观照下,这两套丰产仪式的共存并不矛盾,它们祈求的是包括自我与邻人在内的整体丰产。     

Age at first marriage in Malawi: a Bayesian multilevel analysis using a discrete time-to-event model

Summary.  The paper presents a hierarchical discrete time survival model for the analysis of the 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey data to assess the determinants of transition to marriage among women in Malawi. The model explicitly accounts for the unobserved heterogeneity by using family and community random effects with cross-level correlation structure. A nonparametric technique is used to model the base-line discrete hazard dynamically. Parameters of the model are computed by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The results show that rising age at marriage is a combination of birth cohort and education effects, depends considerably on the family and to some extent on the community in which a woman resides and the correlation between family and community random effects is negative. These results confirm a downward trend in teenage marriage and that raising women's education levels in sub-Saharan Africa has the beneficial effect of increasing age at marriage, and by implication reducing total fertility rates. The negative correlation between family and community random effects has policy implications in that targeting communities with an intervention to increase age at first marriage may not necessarily yield reduced fertility levels in individual families. A campaign that is geared towards individual families would achieve the desired goals. Overall, the findings point to the need for the Government in Malawi to enact public policies which are geared at vastly improving women's education at higher levels. The variation in marriage rates over families poses problems in delivering the policy, since particular policies must be devised for specific groups of families to accomplish the required social and health objectives.     

The gendered division of labor and family outcomes in germany

The literature on the predictors of the division of household labor continues to expand, but the effect of this division on family outcomes has not been explored. Using the German SocioEconomic Panel (N= 628), I analyze the effect of men's participation in housework and child care on the likelihood of second birth and divorce. Fathers' greater relative child‐care time increases couples' odds of second birth, attenuating the negative effect of mothers' employment. Husbands' relative housework time is insignificant in predicting second birth or divorce among couples with at least one child, but increases the likelihood of divorce among childless couples. This is evidence that the division of domestic labor affects family outcomes, but effects differ depending on the outcome and presence of children.     

Labor Force Transitions after Childbirth Among Five Birth Cohorts in Sweden

This article describes part-time work in Sweden and performs a multivariate analysis of the choice between part-time work, full-time work, and other activities in connection with childbirth among five birth cohorts of women. Results show that the combination of market work and family is common, but heterogeneity exists among women in the sample analyzed. Previous labor force participation proves important when it comes to returning to the labor market. The extent of previous labor force participation is also important, regardless of sector of, when it comes to the return to part-time or full-time work. Career orientation and social background also prove significant, some indicators probably working indirectly through higher education and different preferences.     

对消费率的深层思考

2004年国民经济保持平稳较快发展,2004年学术界对消费率空前关注。文章提出政府应当依法办好基础教育,把有限的财政资金向基础教育倾斜;建立和完善以医疗、失业、养老为主的社会保障体系;切实支持“三农”。这些公共管理和服务职能对政府而言责无旁贷。如果造就了一个较好的制度框架和消费环境,有效改善了居民的收人预期和支出预期,消费需求与经济发展自然可以实现良性循环。这正是文章的主旨:提高消费率,功夫在诗外。     

光周期诱导对两系杂交稻育性的影响

以5个两系杂交稻及相应的两用系为材料，在自然温度条件下进行长日（15：00小时）和短日（10：00小时）处理，结果再次表明，两用核不育系的不育性属隐性核遗传，在杂种F1代不表达。两用系的可恢性及父本的恢复力、亲和力是影响两系杂交稻结实率的主要因素。