最低收购价政策对我国稻谷市场价格预期的影响研究

稻谷最低收购价是我国粮食价格支持政策的重要措施。2004年以来，政策实施的基本目标围绕稳定国内粮食生产、保障国内粮食安全展开，其关键在于把握最低收购价格形成的市场预期效应。基于早、中、晚籼稻和粳稻的省级数据，采用面板估计方法分析稻谷最低收购价格在不同区域和时期对其市场价格预期的影响。研究发现：（1）无论在非政策执行区，还是政策执行区的非执行期内，稻谷最低收购价均有助于形成积极的市场预期，但其影响在非执行区弱于前1期市场价格的影响，而在执行区强于前1期市场价格的影响。（2）在政策执行区的执行期内，基于最低收购价格的托市效应，前1期市场价格对预期的价格差额（市场价格与最低收购价的预期差额）具有正向影响，最低收购价格则呈负向影响。因此，最低收购价格政策的改革应围绕政策执行目标充分考虑未来政策改革对市场预期的冲击。     

生育意愿对家庭住房负债的影响

近年来,我国居民住房贷款规模快速扩张。家庭负债的不断上升不仅会降低居民(消费)福利水平,还可能引发系统性金融风险。基于CFPS2018年调查问卷,实证检验了家庭生育意愿对家庭住房负债的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,生育意愿显著影响了家庭住房负债水平。意愿生育男孩数量越多,家庭住房负债水平越高,而意愿生育女孩数量与家庭住房负债不相关。这种差异主要是由“传宗接代”等传统文化观念所导致,意愿生育男孩数量越多的家庭,会配置价值越高的住房资产,进而导致家庭住房负债水平上升。生育意愿主要提升了家庭消费性住房资产配置,此时民间借贷成为主要借款渠道。意愿生育男孩数量对家庭住房负债的正向影响在不同收入和资产水平的家庭中并无显著差异,但在小孩抚养比较高和户主健康状况较好的家庭中更加显著。上述结论表明,政府部门应进一步加强男女平等宣传,提高女性家庭地位和社会地位,同时从法律层面对女性进行保护,在就业、收入等方面消除性别歧视,提高女性社会经济地位,抑制家庭住房负债非理性上升。     

领导高绩效期望的双面性:趋近-回避理论视角

传统观点认为,领导高绩效期望通常是激励下属、提升任务绩效的重要手段。本研究拓展了这一观点,认为领导高绩效期望的激励作用主要适用于绩效趋近目标导向这类员工;然而,对于绩效回避目标导向的员工,领导高绩效期望则会引发员工的回避行为,从而对任务绩效产生消极影响。鉴于此,本研究基于趋近-回避理论,建构了一个被调节的双中介模型来诠释领导高绩效期望的双刃剑效应。对221份三时间点的领导-员工配对数据进行路径分析,数据结果支持了本研究的设想。具体而言,对于绩效趋近目标导向的员工,领导高绩效期望会激发员工工作努力,进而提升员工任务绩效(趋近路径);对于绩效回避目标导向的员工,领导高绩效期望会导致员工回避领导,进而降低员工任务绩效(回避路径)。上述结果细化了学界对高绩效期望作用效果的认识,并对管理者实践中如何正确地传达高绩效期望有一定启示。     

生育保险对女性再生育意愿的影响——基于2018年CLDS数据的分析

生育保险作为生育支持政策的重要内容，是影响女性再生育意愿的重要因素。基于当前我国人口生育率持续走低的现实背景，采用2018年中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据，实证检验全面二孩政策实施以来，生育保险对已生育一孩女性的再生育意愿的影响。研究发现，相比无任何生育保险待遇的女性，享有生育保险待遇的女性再生育意愿高出7.7%。拥有生育保险能更显著地提升具有传统生育观念、独生子女家庭、城镇户口以及本科及以上学历的女性的再生育意愿。为此建议，应扩大生育保险覆盖范围，强化生育保险的生育支持功能，加强农村地区生育保障体系建设。     

‘If you're a male primary teacher,there's a big “why are you doing that? What is wrong with you?”’ Gendered expectations of male primary teachers: The ‘double bind’

The underrepresentation of men in non-traditional fields of work is often attributed to essentialist gendered beliefs that associate such roles exclusively with women. This phenomenon is not limited to any specific country but is observed worldwide. Moreover, male teacher drop-out rates remain a consistent issue. This article examines the detrimental impact of gendered expectations of masculinity on male primary teachers through interviews conducted with both male and female teachers in the UK. It argues that men in this occupation face a ‘double bind,’ being judged for conforming to hegemonic masculine norms while also facing judgement for deviating from them. All male teachers interviewed expressed feeling the pressure of gendered expectations, which primarily stem from one central misconception fuelled by traditional conceptions of gender; that the occupation is unsuitable for men. As a result, men who enter the profession encounter challenges not only related to their gender but also their sexuality and their sense of professional identity as teachers. Addressing the damaging role of gender beliefs is crucial in promoting the numerical representation of men in the teaching profession.     

Altruistic or expected leadership? Laboratory evidence on what motivates pro-social influence

We provide experimental evidence to assess whether pro-social leading is motivated by altruism or by a desire to conform with expectations. A sizable minority of individuals act more pro-socially when they can influence others. Whether or not an individual acts more pro-socially when she can influence others, she wants her actions made public only if it will increase others’ pro-sociality, which turns out to be a telltale sign of altruism. Despite some evidence that pro-social leading is partly driven by conformity, altruism wins the day.     

Examining Secondary School Choice Processes as a Predictor of Adjustment After the School Transition

The secondary school transition is an important moment in adolescents' lives. Taking a prospective approach, the present study examined whether educational identity regarding a secondary school choice and own and parental expectations during the last year of primary school predicted post-transition school and psychological adjustment in Dutch adolescents (N = 314, M_age = 11.58). Additionally, the study qualitatively examined the reasons adolescents gave for their school choice, and linked these reasons to exploration behavior and post-transition adjustment. Identity processes and expectations predicted adjustment. Adolescents mostly reported multiple reasons for their school choice, with educational, practical, and social aspects of secondary schools appearing most important. The number of reasons mentioned was associated with pre-transition exploration behavior.     

Advancing a qualitative turn in news media trust research

The contemporary media environment represents the greatest challenge ever to journalism's legitimacy. Surveys conducted in different parts of the world highlight a decline in trust in news media. Due to the numerous changes in the news media environment, different investigative tools are required to grasp the mechanisms underlying news media trust from those adopted so far. This article provides a review of existing media trust research and argues that it is necessary to investigate news media trust (also) from a qualitative perspective because today understanding media trust is as crucial as measuring it.     

何以从师：学前教育师范生从教意愿的类别特征与影响机理

学前教育师范生是高素质、善保教师资队伍的储备力量，引导师范生积极从事幼儿园教师工作，对实现“幼有所育”美好期盼、办好人民满意的学前教育有重要意义。立足计划行为理论“信念→知觉→意愿”的框架，采用问卷调查法对1018名本科在读师范生的从教意愿类别特征及其影响因素展开剖析。研究发现：学前教育师范生总体从教意愿不强，长期和复选意愿较弱；在师范类型、学校属性上存在显著组间差异，公费师范生当前从教意愿显著高于非公费师范生，地方院校师范生的总体、当前及复选意愿均显著高于省属师大的师范生；学前教育师范生的职业期望、职业认同、主观规范与从教意愿之间两两显著正相关，且职业认同和主观规范在职业期望与从教意愿之间存在显著的链式中介效应。建议：完善公费师范政策，增强学前教育师范生从教的内生动力；培育幼教家国情怀，坚定学前教育师范生从教的理想信念；涵养专业进取品格，锤炼学前教育师范生从教的职业认知。     

Large Robust Games

With many semi‐anonymous players, the equilibria of simultaneous‐move games are extensively robust. This means that the equilibria survive even if the simultaneous‐play assumption is relaxed to allow for a large variety of extensive modifications. Such modifications include sequential play with partial and differential revelation of information, commitments, multiple revisions of choices, cheap talk announcements, and more.