关于人口均衡发展与妇女民生的理性思考

坚持计划生育的基本国策有利于推动人口长期均衡发展,有利于改善妇女民生和促进妇女发展。控制人口总量的适度规模、优化人口自然结构、合理分布人口、提高人口素质与促进妇女发展和进步之间具有高度的同一性及互促性。从其长远和根本来看,我国的生育政策调整有利于人口长期均衡发展,有益于国计民生,但在一定时期内,它也可能对妇女民生及妇女发展造成某些不良影响,应当采取有力措施给予妥善解决。     

社会心理学视阈下的合法性构筑:公众社会心理预期及其获得

对政治合法性问题的研究,社会心理科学关注政治合法性的来源及其形成过程中的社会心理因素。公众对政权体系的合法性预期,建立在国家特有的社会历史文化传统、领袖人格、意识形态、政府绩效、制度规范等基础上,内在地反映了政府行动所体现出来的价值观、意识形态,以及政府绩效对社会公众心理预期的迎合程度。了解社会公众的合法性预期,对于获取政治合法性资源,民众的合法性支持,维护和巩固国家政权体系具有重要意义。     

Perceived Inflation Persistence

This article constructs and estimates a measure called perceived inflation persistence that can be used to determine if professional forecasters’ inflation forecasts indicate there has been a change in inflation persistence. This measure is built via the implied autocorrelation function that follows from the estimates obtained using a forecaster-specific state-space model. Findings indicate that U.S. perceived inflation persistence has changed since the mid-1990s with more consensus among forecasters at lower levels of persistence. When compared to the autocorrelation function for actual inflation, forecasters typically react less to shocks to inflation than the actual inflation data would suggest.     

Fertility and union formation during crisis and societal consolidation in the Western Balkans

Fertility decline in central and eastern Europe (CEE) since the fall of the communist regimes has been driven by both stopping and postponement of childbearing: two processes that have been related to crisis and economic development, respectively. In the Western Balkans these economic and political contexts followed each other in the form of a biphasic transition. I examine whether this sequence triggered fertility responses like those observed elsewhere. Relying on three independent data sources, I cross-validate the levels of, and describe the trends in, union formation and fertility (by birth order) between 1980 and 2010. Results do not reveal widespread declines in fertility to lowest-low levels during the most acute period of crisis. The subsequent postponement of marriage and first birth was also limited, and the two-child family remains the norm. This relative resilience of childbearing patterns compared with other CEE countries is discussed with reference to the institutional context.     

Urban versus Rural: Fertility Decline in the Cities and Rural Districts of Prussia, 1875 to 1910

Marital fertility in 54 Prussian cities and 407 Prussian Kreise (administrative areas) is analyzed using unusually rich and detailed socioeconomic and demographic data from eight quinquennial census between 1875 and 1910. Pooled cross-section time series methods are used to examine influences on marital fertility level and on marital fertility decline, focusing particularly on fertility differences according to level of urbanization. Increases in female labour force participation rate and income, the growth of financial services and communications, improvement in education, and reduction in infant mortality account for most of the marital fertility decline in 19th century Prussia. In 1875, rural and urban fertility were similar but by 1910, urban fertility was far lower than rural in part because the values of some of these variables changed more rapidly in the cities, and in part because some of these variables had stronger effects in urban settings.     

Social Differences in the Decline of Marital Reproduction in Rural Navarre (Spain)

The continued decline of marital fertility in Navarre (Spain) during the first few decades of the twentieth century was associated with an increase in life expectancy and greater survival to adulthood. This decline affected all social strata and all geographical regions, rural areas as well as cities. Nonetheless, the decline was not homogeneous. Some sectors of Navarrese society began the fertility transition earlier than others.Cross sectional analysis is presented for different years of diverse variables that could be related to the levels of marital fertility: level of urbanization, occupation of the father, level of religious devotion and political factors. Statistical evidence is presented that confirms the relationship of these variables to the levels of fertility.     

政府、雇主和家庭共担生育责任的探讨

人口再生产是社会生产的必要前提,为社会经济发展做出巨大贡献,为雇主/社会提供了充足劳动力,满足了家庭情感需求和家族延续的需要,政府、社会和家庭需要共担责任。我国经历了从国家和家庭共担到雇主和家庭分担主要生育责任的过程,目前政府分担生育责任依然不足,雇主服务支持不够,家庭中男性未充分发挥作用。要确立生育的社会价值,增强政府责任,建立全面覆盖的生育保障制度,不断提高保障水平;建立平衡工作—家庭的支持体系,男性分担更多责任。     

Teen Childbearing and Educational Attainment: A Comparison of Methods

This research examines the impact of teenage childbearing on secondary school completion, while focusing on the problem of causal ambiguity in the relationships among self-determined behaviours. Techniques for dealing with the teenage childbearing problem are discussed, and results from these methods are compared. Data from the High School and Beyond Study on young women (n = 5257) who were enrolled as sophomores in sample schools in February 1980 and who had not given birth before November 1980 are used. Results indicate that teen childbearing reduces the probability of completing high school by 8% to 10%. Some evidence suggests that programs that target reduction of teen childbearing in improving young women's education and subsequent economic and labor force outcomes.     

Is There a Curse of Dimensionality for Contraction Fixed Points in the Worst Case?

This paper analyzes the complexity of the contraction fixed point problem: compute an ε‐approximation to the fixed point V*Γ(V*) of a contraction mapping Γ that maps a Banach space B_d of continuous functions of d variables into itself. We focus on quasi linear contractions where Γ is a nonlinear functional of a finite number of conditional expectation operators. This class includes contractive Fredholm integral equations that arise in asset pricing applications and the contractive Bellman equation from dynamic programming. In the absence of further restrictions on the domain of Γ, the quasi linear fixed point problem is subject to the curse of dimensionality, i.e., in the worst case the minimal number of function evaluations and arithmetic operations required to compute an ε‐approximation to a fixed point V*∈B_d increases exponentially in d. We show that the curse of dimensionality disappears if the domain of Γ has additional special structure. We identify a particular type of special structure for which the problem is strongly tractable even in the worst case, i.e., the number of function evaluations and arithmetic operations needed to compute an ε‐approximation of V* is bounded by Cε^−p where C and p are constants independent of d. We present examples of economic problems that have this type of special structure including a class of rational expectations asset pricing problems for which the optimal exponent p1 is nearly achieved.