唐叔虞封地考辨

西周初年晋国始祖唐叔虞始封地本是很明确的,即在今山西太原地区。这一点,从汉代开始已有定论,一直到明代,均无异说。其间虽汉司马迁、唐李泰给后人留下了一些可供"想象"的探讨空间,但总的来说,尚无过大歧异,从清代顾炎武方开了后人疑古之风。但顾说纯为一种假设推想,证据未足,后人沿袭顾说也未能有新的证据证明。班固以来唐叔虞封地晋阳说未可动摇。     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

知识管理及其在图书馆应用中的研究

文章阐述了知识管理的概念、内涵,简要地分析了知识管理在图书馆的应用,以及知识管理对图书馆发展所产生的积极作用。     

建筑业项目经理的压力状况调查

建筑企业自身在市场中所面临的竞争压力是不可避免的,而企业中内在的缺陷与不足也会为企业带来一定的压力.过多压力不仅有害于员工的身心健康,而且会给企业带来巨额的经济损失,项目经理是建筑企业项目得以实现并获得长远发展的关键角色之一.此项研究在调查问卷的基础之上,调查了我国建筑业项目经理压力水平,并从项目经理的职业特点出发,分析了我国项目经理压力水平偏高的原因,为我国建筑业实行压力管理迈出了重要的一步.     

蚌埠市小学生体育现状调查研究

运用查阅文献资料、问卷调查和数理统计法,对蚌埠市6所小学的五(一)班学生体育现状作了调查研究,结果表明小学生对体育活动有着广泛的兴趣,学生体育活动的实践已大大超过了《体育教学大纲》的要求。平均每个家庭已拥有一件体育器材。指出应贯彻新颁发的《体育与健康教学大纲》,加强对课外体育的组织、竞赛和指导,开发体育设施资源,进一步激发学生的运动兴趣,养成坚持体育锻炼的习惯,促进身心发展。     

On Block Updating in Markov Random Field Models for Disease Mapping

Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models are commonly used to model spatial correlation in disease mapping applications. For Bayesian inference by MCMC, so far mainly single-site updating algorithms have been considered. However, convergence and mixing properties of such algorithms can be extremely poor due to strong dependencies of parameters in the posterior distribution. In this paper, we propose various block sampling algorithms in order to improve the MCMC performance. The methodology is rather general, allows for non-standard full conditionals, and can be applied in a modular fashion in a large number of different scenarios. For illustration we consider three different applications: two formulations for spatial modelling of a single disease (with and without additional unstructured parameters respectively), and one formulation for the joint analysis of two diseases. The results indicate that the largest benefits are obtained if parameters and the corresponding hyperparameter are updated jointly in one large block. Implementation of such block algorithms is relatively easy using methods for fast sampling of Gaussian Markov random fields ( Rue, 2001 ). By comparison, Monte Carlo estimates based on single-site updating can be rather misleading, even for very long runs. Our results may have wider relevance for efficient MCMC simulation in hierarchical models with Markov random field components.     

三维Minkowski空间中有相等主曲率函数的一类特殊曲面的位置向量场

讨论三维Minkowski空间R2 .1中一类特殊曲面在主曲率函数相等时的情形 ,给出了这类曲面在这一情形下的位置向量场     

我院大学体育教学效果的调查研究

我们对华北工学院 94、95、96、97级学生 ,分别从入学到毕业 ,进行连续 5年 (每年一次 )的体质追踪调查 ,发现各年级学生身体素质的发展变化在基础课教学和专项教学阶段有不同的特点 ,从不同角度评价了体育教学的效果     

工科特困生心理素质的调查分析

采用卡特尔 16PF(8种人格因素分析 )量表及问卷调查 ,对工科特困生的心理素质的具体表现进行调查分析 ,并对其形成原因作出探讨 ,同时提出教育和管理方面的对策     

中学生物教师科学素养现状调查与思考

为了解中学生物教师科学素养的现状,我们采用自编调查问卷的形式对淄博市中学生物教师进行了抽样调查。结果显示中学生物教师的科学素养水平整体较高,但在科学方法等方面存在明显的问题和不足。我们建议通过组织培养与自身努力相结合的方式,加大继续教育改革力度,加强岗位自我培训,深化高师院校生物教育改革,以提高中学生物教师的科学素养。