略论命名与语言、民俗、文化及其它学科的关系

命名与语言、民俗、文化及其它学科之间,均有非常密切的关系。通过对命名学的研究,可以使人们科学地利用命名和有关名称,在人类生活的诸多方面也会产生重要的指导意义。     

高校建设应法治德治并举

为深入贯彻依法治国和以德治国相结合的治国方略,高校建设也应依法治校与以德治校并举,这是由当前教育中存在的问题,教育的目标机制决定的。实现这一治校方略应分别制定举措,并将两者紧密结合起来,不能忽视其中任何一个方面,要做到两手抓、两手都要硬。     

东北老工业基地社会工作专业教育初探

发展东北老工业基地社会工作教育事业的关键是协调好各种关系。主要有:在坚持专业化办学的基础上实现社会工作专业教育的本土化;突出对学生实践能力的培养;科学地设置专业课程;根据地区的特殊需求培养人才类型;力争得到政府的积极支持;培养社会工作专业教师和学生的“利他主义”的价值观等专业理念。     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

证券公司与证券投资者的法律关系

证券公司与证券投资者的法律关系是比较复杂的,也是极为重要的。证券公司作为证券市场的主体之一,其所处的地位直接关系到投资风险的承担、投资者利益的保护和资本交易市场的维护,但是对于这两者的法律关系学术界还存在很大争议．。综合其他学术观点我认为,当投资者在证券公司办理了开户手续,这时二者之间是委托关系;若为证券交易,则是代理关系;若为中介,则为居间关系。     

福利多元主义视角下的社区福利

随着经济体制的改革,“单位人”向“社区人”转变,社区福利成为社会成员普遍性的需求。但目前我国的社区福利存在着行政化、非专业化等一系列问题,社区内缺少成熟的、有活力的社会团体,严重影响了社区居民对于福利的可及性和可得性。本文尝试从福利多元主义的视角,在福利服务领域引入非营利组织,并重点讨论政府的角色转变以及与这些志愿组织和社会团体的合作关系。     

语境教学与法学教育之关联分析

语境教学法与学习过程的内在规律性相契合 ,是启发式的核心环节 ,是激发学习主体学习兴趣的重要方式 ,因而是一种行之有效的教学方法。法学知识结构的系统性与严密的内在逻辑性决定了语境教学在法学教育中的地位与作用。信息社会法律教学应该加强语境教学 ,培养学生对语境的感受力     

历史唯物主义视野下的货币——马克思的货币哲学思想简析

货币的经济功能已为人们熟知,但对其背后隐藏的社会功能,众说纷纭。马克思用唯物主义特有的历史的、内在批判的方法透视了货币的本质——特定社会历史中人的社会关系。主要从货币的历史形成、货币的资本形态和货币导致的拜物教现象三方面分析马克思的货币哲学思想,并探讨这一理论对理解唯物主义哲学的精髓以及对中国社会主义经济变革的非常意义。     

On Block Updating in Markov Random Field Models for Disease Mapping

Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models are commonly used to model spatial correlation in disease mapping applications. For Bayesian inference by MCMC, so far mainly single-site updating algorithms have been considered. However, convergence and mixing properties of such algorithms can be extremely poor due to strong dependencies of parameters in the posterior distribution. In this paper, we propose various block sampling algorithms in order to improve the MCMC performance. The methodology is rather general, allows for non-standard full conditionals, and can be applied in a modular fashion in a large number of different scenarios. For illustration we consider three different applications: two formulations for spatial modelling of a single disease (with and without additional unstructured parameters respectively), and one formulation for the joint analysis of two diseases. The results indicate that the largest benefits are obtained if parameters and the corresponding hyperparameter are updated jointly in one large block. Implementation of such block algorithms is relatively easy using methods for fast sampling of Gaussian Markov random fields ( Rue, 2001 ). By comparison, Monte Carlo estimates based on single-site updating can be rather misleading, even for very long runs. Our results may have wider relevance for efficient MCMC simulation in hierarchical models with Markov random field components.