基于Pair-Copula贝叶斯网络模型的金融危机传播效应研究

为克服传统Copula函数建模的复杂性,采用Pair-Copula贝叶斯网络方法,将Copula函数与贝叶斯网络的优势相结合,有效降低了高维Copula函数参数估计的复杂程度,解决了连续型贝叶斯网络非正态下边际分布难以控制的问题,有利于捕捉网络结点间的非对称相依结构,从而构建了国际8个代表性股票市场在次贷危机爆发前、中、后各个时期的概率网络模型,对危机在主要国际市场上的传播效应问题及传播路径识别问题进行实证研究。研究结果表明:金融危机在国际金融市场上具有明显的区域性传播特征;香港市场在金融危机发生前后一直都是亚洲市场的连接枢纽,是风险防范的关键节点;危机发生后欧洲市场与亚洲市场间的紧密程度加强;金融危机减缓了全球一体化的进程,但经济全球化的趋势势不可挡。     

论财务总监的事前监督与事后监督

财务总监制度的设立,是现代企业制度发展的要求,一般说来,财务总监的监督分为事前监督和事后监督。本文分析和探讨了财务总监的事前监督和事后监督机制,认为,应该将事前监督和事后监督机制配合运用,并辅之以切实可行的制衡手段,抑制经理人的机会主义行为,以保障所有者权益。     

Identifying the Material and Non‐Material Ingredients of the Good Life

Criticism of the neo‐liberal approach to generating economic growth and rising prosperity rests on the view that it has failed to deliver many of the things that people most value. Developments in the measurement of quality of life, and in the poverty literature, have moved away from relying solely on economic variables such as income. The deprivation approach provides an insight into the items that people value because it asks a random sample of the population whether or not a list of items are regarded as essential – things that no‐one should have to go without. Drawing on results from a recent deprivation survey, this paper examines the strength of Australian opinion about whether material and non‐material items are essential. The results confirm that there is widespread support for many non‐material items being essential and that lack of ownership of these items is often widespread, with adverse affects on wellbeing.     

Financial self‐sufficiency or return to welfare? A longitudinal study of mothers among the working poor

Cheng T. Financial self‐sufficiency or return to welfare? A longitudinal study of mothers among the working poor Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 162–172 © 2010 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and International Journal of Social Welfare. This study investigated how working‐poor mothers who withdrew from a US government assistance program were affected by the economy, welfare reform policies, and their own human capital, in terms of their likelihood of returning to welfare and their likelihood of becoming nonpoor through work. The study employed longitudinal data (covering 42 months) extracted from a national data set. The sample for the current study, which relied on event history analysis, consisted of 228 working‐poor former welfare mothers. Results showed that the women's return to welfare was correlated to high unemployment, restrictive welfare policies, enrollment in Medicaid and food‐stamp programs, possession of service‐job skills, and being Hispanic. The women were most likely to attain relative financial independence in the presence of generous government assistance program policies, housing assistance, full‐time employment, operative‐job skills, college education, and marriage. African American ethnicity also made achievement of financial independence more likely.     

广西北部湾经济区金融机构运行效率研究

健全、高效的金融体系对经济发展巨大的促进作用已经是毋庸置疑,但健全、高效的金融体系并不简单是金融机构的齐备,还包括金融运行的高效率。目前,广西北部湾经济区金融机构的运行效率不尽如人意,存在诸多问题。应各方通力合作,大力提高金融机构运行效率,即政府部门发挥主导作用,营造良好的金融生态环境;金融机构大力发展表外业务创新,降低收入结构单一的潜在风险,着力提高区域资金配置效率,加强粤桂之间科技、信息和人才的交流等等。     

美国金融危机与东盟的战略调整

2008年席卷全球的美国次贷危机虽然没有使东盟成为重灾区,不过却有可能促使东盟在未来的发展方向上做出新的调整,这其中包括进一步加强与中国的经贸关系发展,并达到一个＂战略互信＂的新高度。     

Operations in the Service Industries: Introduction to the Special Issue

This special issue of Production and Operations Management offers a sample of ongoing research that focuses currently on the services industries. The articles selected cover a spectrum of application areas as well as methodologies.     

创意产业的空间需求与工业遗产建筑的保护利用——广州T.I.T纺织服装创意园的启示

当今社会经济技术发展迅猛,社会风貌特征变化快速,城市工业文化遗产作为这些变更的历史见证,对它的保护刻不容缓。文章通过对城市创意产业发展的空间需求的分析和研究发现:创意产业的兴起和发展与城市工业遗产的保护性再利用正好有着很好的契合,并以广州纺织机械厂改造为广州T.I.T纺织服装创意园为例,探讨城市工业文化遗产的保护途径和几点经验启示。     

Housing needs of grandparent caregivers: grandparent,youth, and professional perspectives

ABSTRACT

This qualitative study examined the housing needs of grandparent caregivers and the youth in their care in New York State. Nine focus groups were conducted separately with grandparent caregivers (n = 46) and youth (n = 34), and interviews were conducted with key informants (n = 17) knowledgeable about housing and issues. Housing needs of greatest priority, contextual differences, and potential barriers to securing housing and social services were identified. Key themes indicated that housing challenges stem from four problem domains: the experience of poverty, which creates affordability challenges that trap grandparent caregivers and their grandchildren in unsuitable homes and unsafe neighborhoods; physical challenges of aging grandparents, which require specific housing accommodations; changes in family composition when taking in grandchildren, which necessitate moving out of prior accommodations or changing housing plans due to regulatory issues; and obstacles to obtaining needed benefits, including a lack of information, burdensome application processes, ineligibility, and a shortage of resources. These issues are discussed with implications for policy and practice.     

金融危机背景下全球贸易波动的“构成效应”和“共振效应”

次贷危机中全球贸易出现了突然、剧烈和协同式的波动。本文旨在从＂构成效应＂和＂共振效应＂两个层面剖析产生这种现象的原因。本文认为,贸易和整个经济的结构差异以及全球生产链的形成是造成全球贸易震荡的深层次原因。