农村劳动力转移就业的多元路径选择

长期以来，我国农村劳动力转移就业基本上是以流向东部沿海经济发达地区为主的单一模式。近年来，受东部沿海地区产业向中西部地区转移进程加快和内地经济快速发展的影响，区域间的比较优势逐渐弱化，农村劳动力远距离就业的选择空间越来越大，当地政府必须通过调整农业经济结构、鼓励农民自主创业、加大招商引资力度和开辟国外劳务市场等途径探索多元转移就业路径，实现农村劳动力合理转移就业。     

Time series models with asymmetric Laplace innovations

We propose autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models driven by asymmetric Laplace (AL) noise. The AL distribution plays, in the geometric-stable class, the analogous role played by the normal in the alpha-stable class, and has shown promise in the modelling of certain types of financial and engineering data. In the case of an ARMA model we derive the marginal distribution of the process, as well as its bivariate distribution when separated by a finite number of lags. The calculation of exact confidence bands for minimum mean-squared error linear predictors is shown to be straightforward. Conditional maximum likelihood-based inference is advocated, and corresponding asymptotic results are discussed. The models are particularly suited for processes that are skewed, peaked, and leptokurtic, but which appear to have some higher order moments. A case study of a fund of real estate returns reveals that AL noise models tend to deliver a superior fit with substantially less parameters than normal noise counterparts, and provide both a competitive fit and a greater degree of numerical stability with respect to other skewed distributions.     

完善我国政策性房地产金融机构建设的思考

在市场机制存在资源无法有效配置的局限性下,商业性房地产金融机构与政策性房地产金融机构协同发展的同时,应更重视政策性房地产金融机构的发展。借鉴日本、韩国和新加坡的经验,我国政策性房地产金融机构应该在政府的支持下配合公积金项目,筹集社会各界资金,保障我国房地产业健康稳定发展。     

高等学校财务信息公开问题研究--以江西省98所普通高等学校为例

高等学校财务信息公开不仅是促进我国高等学校提高财务管理水平的一个重要途径，也是社会各界了解我国高等学校运营状况的一个窗口。以江西省98所普通高等学校为样本，分析高等学校财务信息公开的现状及存在的问题，并提出我国高等学校财务信息公开的解决途径。     

土地流转中为什么会形成大量小农复制

土地流转是实现规模化经营的前提之一,然而土地流转中却出现大量小农复制,从而影响土地流转的质量和效果。运用12省(自治区)2 553份农户问卷,详细分析土地流转中小农复制的现状及其形成原因。研究发现：(1)农户流转耕地面积不大,转入户流转面积20亩及以下的约占总转入户数的60.3％,转出户流转面积5亩及以下的约占总转出户数的74.38％,转出户中仍然经营土地的约占总转出户数的74％。(2)农业分工发达使生产更加方便、文化传统形成路径依赖、禀赋效应产生“价值幻觉”以及公共服务不健全使未来存在不确定性导致转出户流转部分土地。乡土社会限制土地流转范围和经营风险增加风险感知导致转入户流转小规模土地。     

农业保险的保障水平与财政补贴政策优化：一个文献综述 *

近年来，我国农业保险快速发展，在保费收入、保障范围和参保农户数量等指标上都取得了举世瞩目的成绩。与此同时，保障水平不高、农业保险“不解渴、不顶用”也一直是各方反映的焦点之一。本文结合了福利经济学和保险经济学中的相关理论，遵循“提高农业保险保障水平必须优化其财政补贴政策”的逻辑主线，对实施财政补贴政策是提升农业保险保障水平的前提条件、有效途径、有力举措和重要渠道进行了梳理和评析。最后，针对现有研究的不足，结合当前的时代背景，对该领域日后的研究重点进行了预测，并进一步探讨了其优化路径。     

发达国家对华输出电子废弃物的环境影响与对策

近年来,发达国家电子废弃物的流入给发展中国家的环境和民众健康带来了严重的危害。我国在阻止电子废弃物流入的相关法律规制与监管上存在漏洞,且经济发展战略不合理,发展水平相对落后。法律和经济方面的双重落差导致发达国家电子废弃物流入屡禁不止,迫切需要采取有效措施加以应对。分析国外电子废弃物涌入我国之现状与原因,并从法律制度建设、经济发展思路、经济发展战略、国内管理和国际合作5方面提出应对策略。     

Then press enter: digital payment technology and the history of telephone interface

The internet and other digital networks in the U.S. (and beyond) remain essentially an upgrade of the national telephone network built by AT&T over the first half of the twentieth century, and digital payment remains tethered to telephony at the level of infrastructure. Telephone history also continues to inform digital payment at the level of interface. Debit card readers feature a keypad nearly identical to those introduced (also by AT&T) to the dialling public a half-century ago on touch-tone telephones. In this essay I highlight the development of the touch-tone keypad as a transformative payment technology. There have been three great leaps forward in the history of telephone interface: the dial, the keypad and the touch screen. Each corresponds to a period of technological transformation in the telephone industry and society more broadly: the rotary dial and automation, touch-tone keypads and digitization, and touch screens and computerization. The successful careers of the dial and the keypad, especially when read in tandem, suggest that touch screens will alter the everyday economics of retail payment even more radically than its predecessors. I also describe a broader trajectory of digital naturalization, whereby telephone numbers have proliferated into a personal identification number, passwords and a plethora of personalized information. Payments increasingly circulate today as subsets of personal information within the vast sea of big data. Payment apps are demonstrating a capacity to reorganize retail transactions on a scale as vast as any technology since the cash register. The history of retail payment finds the point of sale heading from the till into shoppers’ pockets. As a result, consumers are increasingly shouldering the costs of purchasing, maintaining, upgrading and securing the technology used for everyday transactions.     

The Great Recession of 2007: An Agenda for Social Justice

The Great Recession, the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression, officially began in December 2007 with an 8 trillion dollar housing bubble and lasted until June 2009, resulting in loss in consumer spending and collapse in the nation’s business investment. For American workers, the Great Recession had far-reaching implications: unemployment, underemployment, pay cuts, and cutbacks in household spending. Although social work has a historical commitment to address the vulnerabilities of people and communities, we argue that the profession neglected to understand fully the factors associated with the Great Recession and to mount an agenda for justice in response to its worker-related impact.     

构建省以下政府间合理财政关系问题研究——兼论“省管县”体制向常态化发展的可能性及路径

对于“省管县”财政体制改革的认识，不能仅定位于压缩财政层级或县域政区财政脱困的权宜之计，必须将其提升至地方行政管理体制变革的高度。中国的财政管理体制改革必须在行政管理体制改革的大背景中找到自己的位置。本文认为，应逐步通过解除市领导县的管理体制，重新整合县域行政辖区，以及必要的省级行政区划的调整，在形成了一个相对合理地地方行政管理层级架构之后，方能营造出构建相对合理的地方政府间财政关系的可能性，进而使得“省管县”财政管理体制成为一种常态化的模式。