Program Evaluation and Causal Inference With High‐Dimensional Data

In this paper, we provide efficient estimators and honest confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects including local average (LATE) and local quantile treatment effects (LQTE) in data‐rich environments. We can handle very many control variables, endogenous receipt of treatment, heterogeneous treatment effects, and function‐valued outcomes. Our framework covers the special case of exogenous receipt of treatment, either conditional on controls or unconditionally as in randomized control trials. In the latter case, our approach produces efficient estimators and honest bands for (functional) average treatment effects (ATE) and quantile treatment effects (QTE). To make informative inference possible, we assume that key reduced‐form predictive relationships are approximately sparse. This assumption allows the use of regularization and selection methods to estimate those relations, and we provide methods for post‐regularization and post‐selection inference that are uniformly valid (honest) across a wide range of models. We show that a key ingredient enabling honest inference is the use of orthogonal or doubly robust moment conditions in estimating certain reduced‐form functional parameters. We illustrate the use of the proposed methods with an application to estimating the effect of 401(k) eligibility and participation on accumulated assets. The results on program evaluation are obtained as a consequence of more general results on honest inference in a general moment‐condition framework, which arises from structural equation models in econometrics. Here, too, the crucial ingredient is the use of orthogonal moment conditions, which can be constructed from the initial moment conditions. We provide results on honest inference for (function‐valued) parameters within this general framework where any high‐quality, machine learning methods (e.g., boosted trees, deep neural networks, random forest, and their aggregated and hybrid versions) can be used to learn the nonparametric/high‐dimensional components of the model. These include a number of supporting auxiliary results that are of major independent interest: namely, we (1) prove uniform validity of a multiplier bootstrap, (2) offer a uniformly valid functional delta method, and (3) provide results for sparsity‐based estimation of regression functions for function‐valued outcomes.     

Vietnam’s economy: Achievements and perspective

In last several years, Vietnams economy has reached significant achievements. Those are clearly seen by analyzing economic growth, economic structure transformation, trade and investment and Vietnams economy competitiveness. However, in the process of development, Vietnams economy is still facing many difficulties and challenges. Vietnam is accelerating speed of innovation process, is active and quicker in international economic integration in order to complete the economic – social objectives in the period of 2001–2005 with annual average economic growth rate of 7.5%.     

Pricing and momentum of syndicated credit in Europe

We investigate the determinants of syndicated loan prices for European borrowers, spanning the entire period of credit expansion and crisis. We construct a large data base consisting of 2102 rated syndicated loan deals from 1990 to 2008 in twenty three countries and ten economic sectors. We investigate the effects on the spread paid over the risk free rate of three major groups of factors: loan characteristics, borrower characteristics and characteristics of country of the borrower, using both qualitative and quantitative variables in a hedonic regression. The results show that all three groups are significant joint determinants of prices of syndicated credit. Our results confirm the existing literature but also provide for first time results stemming form the risk characteristics of the borrower and the country of the borrower. It is shown that distance-to-default as well as aggregate risk associated with country of the borrower are of great concern to the lenders and hence significantly affect the pricing of syndicated loans. Furthermore, we report that financial institutions and public utilities are able to negotiate for cheaper loans, but this result is reversed when financing is for acquisition purposes. Overall, risk, liquidity, solvency and sustainable performance by both the borrower and its domicile country are key determinants of syndicated loan prices.     

Let's Call it Quits: Break‐Even Effects in the Decision to Stop Taking Risks

“Chasing” behavior, whereby individuals, driven by a desire to break even, continue a risky activity (RA) despite incurring large losses, is a commonly observed phenomenon. We examine whether the desire to break even plays a wider role in decisions to stop engaging in financially motivated RA in a naturalistic setting. We test hypotheses, motivated by this research question, using a large data set: 707,152 transactions of 5,379 individual financial market spread traders between September 2004 and April 2013. The results indicate strong effects of changes in wealth around the break‐even point on the decision to cease an RA. An important mediating factor was the individual's historical long‐term performance. Those with a more profitable trading history were less affected by a fall in cash balance below the break‐even point compared to those who had been less profitable. We observe that break‐even points play an important role in the decision of nonpathological risk takers to stop RAs. It is possible, therefore, that these nonpathological cognitive processes, when occurring in extrema, may result in pathological gambling behavior such as “chasing.” Our data set focuses on RAs in financial markets and, consequently, we discuss the implications for institutions and regulators in the effective management of risk taking in markets. We also suggest that there may be a need to consider carefully the nature and role of “break‐even points” associated with a broader range of nonfinancially‐focused risk‐taking activities, such as smoking and substance abuse.     

The Value of a Statistical Life for Risk‐Averse and Risk‐Seeking Individuals

This article estimates the value of a statistical life (VSL) for Chile under the hedonic wage method while accounting for individual risk preferences. Two alternative measures of risk aversion are used. First, risk aversion is directly measured using survey measures of preferences over hypothetical gambles, and second, over observed individual behaviors that may proxy for risk preferences, such as smoking status, are used. I reconcile the results with a theoretical model of economic behavior that predicts how the wage‐risk tradeoff changes as risk aversion differs across individuals. The VSL estimates range between 0.61 and 8.68 million dollars. The results using smoking behavior as a proxy for risk attitudes are consistent with previous findings. However, directly measuring risk aversion corrects the wage‐risk tradeoff estimation bias in the opposite direction. The results are robust to other observed measures of risk aversion such as drinking behavior and stock investments. Results suggest that, consistent with the literature that connects smoking behavior with labor market outcomes, smoking status could be capturing poor health productivity effect in addition to purely risk preferences.     

Schulentwicklung — ein kritischer Blick auf ein aktuelles Phänomen

School developmement, a critical perspective Today, everything dealing with school becomes subsumed under the keyword school development. The demand for school development is raised by two sides: on the one hand by political and social groups, on the other by schools themselves. In this way, very different ideas and demands on school development arise. School as institution and schools as highly complex organizations can’t be reformed with programs derived from economy and management methods. The legal and social context as well as school theories, organizational culture, internal structures and the self concept of teachers constitute the frame, in wich school development takes place as a continual process and whose neglect causes frustration and failure.     

论管理学与意识形态——兼与李平商榷

"话语"是承载了一定的意识形态的"陈述",中国管理学界完全可以创建自己的学派,可是如果仍然采用主流的方法,虽然也可以称之为中国学派,但谈不上话语权问题。《试论中国管理研究的话语权问题》基于"话语能力"的所谓"策略"实际上是将"中国管理研究话语权策略"演变成"西方主流管理理论在中国进行扩散的策略"。当然,若将学术本土化演变成学术民族主义,将重点放在对西方主流的价值评判与道德批评上,同样无助于"管理的中国理论"话语权的取得——学术研究的话语权应在学术市场的竞争中取得——因此,其策略就只能是理解、宽容与构建学术竞争的公平市场。     

我国上市公司银行贷款与投资行为的关系研究——基于终极控制人性质调节效应的分析

主要研究不同终极控制人上市公司的银行贷款数量和期限结构对其投资行为的影响,以揭示股东-债权人代理冲突和银行贷款作为治理机制在公司投资方面所带来的综合后果。研究结果表明,银行贷款与投资支出显著负相关,短期贷款比长期贷款对投资扩张的约束力更大;无论是国家终极控制还是非国家终极控制的上市公司中,短期贷款对投资扩张起到明显的制约作用,但是在国家终极控制的上市公司中,长期贷款对决策者产生了更大的过度投资激励;中央终极控制的上市公司中短期贷款发挥了约束作用,长期贷款作用并不明显;地方终极控制的上市公司中短期贷款的约束作用不显著,但是其长期贷款产生了明显的过度投资激励。     

现代信用风险度量模型的实证比较与适用性分析

本文通过实证比较分析发现,现代信用风险度量模型对银行贷款的违约率、贷款损失和损失率的预测结果的差异性较大;但信用监测模型和信用风险附加法所预测的经济资本配置比例不仅符合巴塞尔协议对银行贷款经济资本的要求,也略大于实际应该配置的比例,实证表明了它们对度量我国商业银行贷款组合的信用风险具有较好的适用性.此外,本文也充分验证了借款人信用等级的不同,银行贷款经济资本配置的比例会有显著性的差异.     

Discount Rates in Risk Versus Money and Money Versus Money Tradeoffs

We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (1) money versus future risk reductions and (2) money versus money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 0.3-1.7% in (1) and 8.7% in (2). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money versus risk tradeoffs is within the range of estimates from studies in the United States and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics. We use split samples to investigate whether a completely abstract risk reduction - one where the risk reduction delivery has been stripped of all specifics, so that respondents should focus on the risks without being distracted by details - results in WTP and discount figures comparable to those from an identified delivery mechanism (a medical test). We find that while WTP for an immediate risk reduction is 42-73% higher with the abstract risk reduction, the discount rate in the money versus risk tradeoffs and the variance of the error term in the WTP equation are the same across the two variants of the questionnaire.