股价波动的本质特征是什么?——基于非线性动力学分析视角的研究

基于金融复杂性研究视角,采用非线性动力学分析方法,分析股市波动的本质特征与形成机制。结果表明股市波动具有显著的分形动力学特征与长期记忆效应;股票市场存在低维混沌,具有内生的不稳定性;股价行为有其内在的非线性动力学形成机制,揭示出金融市场的正反馈机制、投资者的异质性与相互影响是引发市场复杂行为的重要途径;提出了非线性金融理论的研究方向并阐明了对于金融实践的意义。     

Dynamic Global Games of Regime Change: Learning,Multiplicity, and the Timing of Attacks

Global games of regime change—coordination games of incomplete information in which a status quo is abandoned once a sufficiently large fraction of agents attack it—have been used to study crises phenomena such as currency attacks, bank runs, debt crises, and political change. We extend the static benchmark examined in the literature by allowing agents to take actions in many periods and to learn about the underlying fundamentals over time. We first provide a simple recursive algorithm for the characterization of monotone equilibria. We then show how the interaction of the knowledge that the regime survived past attacks with the arrival of information over time, or with changes in fundamentals, leads to interesting equilibrium properties. First, multiplicity may obtain under the same conditions on exogenous information that guarantee uniqueness in the static benchmark. Second, fundamentals may predict the eventual fate of the regime but not the timing or the number of attacks. Finally, equilibrium dynamics can alternate between phases of tranquility—where no attack is possible—and phases of distress—where a large attack can occur—even without changes in fundamentals.     

Aggregation and Optimization with State‐Dependent Pricing: A Comment

A key argument in Caplin and Leahy (1997) states that the correlation between monetary shocks and output is falling in the variance of the money supply. We demonstrate that this conclusion depends on solving for the correlation in the nonstationary state of the model. In the stationary state, that correlation is initially rising.     

离心流化床中多孔介质干燥的传热传质研究

通过对典型的多孔湿物料在离心流化床中干燥过程的理论分析,将含湿多孔介质传热传质过程和物料与气流之间的外部传递过程相耦合,导出了离心流化床的控制方程组,在此基础上,可以对离心流化床中湿物料的干燥过程进行数值模拟。     

人类共时性的感性认识现象

本文按照索绪尔区分共时性现象和历时性现象的思路,力图从感性认识的时间特点上说明人类意识的特性.我们首先确定动物与人的网膜象信息处理系统是历时性的动力学系统,但是人类语言活动已经明确地显示人脑又是共时性的信息处理器.本文依据贾德的视知觉实验对人脑的映象库和映象翻页机能做了详细叙述,指出人脑的映象勾连操作是人类感性认识的重要部分.人类的双子结构和双维度的映象动力学体系,使人脑截然不同于动物,人类依靠自己独特的感性认知、记忆和语言功能拥有世界,而不仅仅是认识环境和适应环境.     

张伯端的性命思想研究

张伯端在形而上层次以真一统帅真精和先天气,落实到形而下而有精、气、神三宝合修的主张。为了圆融地处理形而上与形而下的关系,不得不把精、气、神的理论发展为性命理论。张伯端在综合前人思想的基础上,提出了天地之性与气质之性的二分,发展了前人关于性命关系的思想,提出了先命后性、性命双修、重性轻命等思想,为后世道教的性命理论确立了基本的理论框架。     

Race Differences in Family Experience and Early Sexual Initiation: Dynamic Models of Family Structure and Family Change

We examine the effects of family structure on age at first sexual intercourse before marriage for a recent cohort of women. Previous research on the linkage between family structure and sexual initiation has employed relatively crude measures of family structure—typically a snapshot of the respondent's family structure at age 14. We use retrospective parent histories from the 1979–1987 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to construct dynamic measures of family structure, using information on the number and types of parents in the respondent's household between birth and age 18. We use these measures in proportional hazard models to test the effects of prolonged exposure to a single‐mother family, prolonged absence of a biological father, parental presence during adolescence, and family turbulence. For White women, age‐specific rates of first sexual intercourse are significantly and positively associated with the number of family transitions; for Black women, age‐specific rates are significantly and positively associated with having resided in a mother‐only or father‐only family during adolescence. Net of other effects of family structure, we find no significant effects for White or Black women of being born out of wedlock, prolonged exposure to a single‐mother family, or prolonged absence of a biological father. Our results for White women are consistent with a turbulence hypothesis, whereas for Black women our results suggest the importance of family structure during adolescence. For neither White nor Black women are our results consistent with hypotheses positing earlier initiation of sexual activity for women with prolonged exposure to a single‐mother or father‐absent family.     

动物体内水及离子浓度相对平衡的实现

体液渗透压的相对稳定,是动物体自稳态的一个重要部分。生活在不同环境中的动物,其维持体内渗透压相对稳定的控制机制,即保持其体内水分及各种离子相对平衡的方式也不相同,这是动物长期进化的结果。     

基于系统动力学的普惠性学前教育服务监管研究

随着国家对于二孩、三孩生育政策的放开,提升普惠性学前教育服务的质量,加强普惠性学前教育服务的监管显得尤为重要。文章建构了普惠性幼儿园、政府和入园幼儿家庭三方参与的演化博弈模型,并结合系统动力学方法进行仿真分析,解析各参与主体的动态演化过程及相关变量因素对演化策略的影响。研究表明：在普惠性学前教育服务监管中,演化系统最终会实现(政府积极监管、普惠性幼儿园自律、入园幼儿家庭监督)均衡状态,多个外部变量的共同作用决定着三方参与主体的策略选择;在博弈过程中,政府发挥着显著的主导作用,普惠性幼儿园和入园幼儿家庭的策略选择明显受到政府影响,入园幼儿家庭监督对普惠性幼儿园的策略选择存在明显的间接影响。之后从提升政府的监管效能、建立科学合理的激励与惩罚机制、重视入园幼儿家庭的监督等层面给出了对策建议。