“双碳”目标约束下的中国城市群高质量发展SD模型与模拟

高质量碳排放已成为未来我国经济高质量发展的重要目标之一。将碳排放和碳吸收作为主控要素嵌入系统动力学(SD)模型,构建基于“双碳”目标约束的中国城市群高质量发展SD模型,运用2019年数据和系统参数,模拟预测在基准情景和高质量发展情景下,2030年和2060年的城市群碳达峰、碳中和情况。结果表明:真实性检验证明模型模拟效果良好,具有可操作性;在基准情景下,“双碳”目标难以实现,碳排放系统濒临崩溃,但在高质量发展情景下,除中部城市群外,其他城市群均能在“十四五”规划提出的年限内实现“双碳”目标;城市群高质量发展过程中要想真正实现“双碳”目标,要明确低碳技术是重要手段,工业转型是关键,同时要实现能源和产业结构系统性变革,促进绿色经济能源使用。     

重大疫情下基于系统动力学的网络舆情应急响应研究

SARS和新型冠状肺炎等重大疫情催生的负面网络舆情容易引发物价飞涨、民众恐慌等次生效应,造成巨大社会危害。洞悉舆情传播规律,利用政务新媒体及时引导与控制其演化趋势,对控制疫情、稳定经济社会秩序具有重要意义。文章基于“情景—回应”视角,利用COVID-19期间的十五次舆情事件数据建立系统动力学仿真模型。基于“逆向回归法”,进一步提高模型的仿真效果。以“接子回荆”事件为例,文章通过建模、仿真、分析,验证了模型的有效性。对政务新媒体回应策略进行模拟分析,结果表明:政务新媒体的回应频率和媒体的影响力程度会对舆情热度产生非线性影响;政务新媒体的回应速度会对舆情的峰值、谷值以及生命周期产生较大影响。     

旋流式气化炉冷态流场数值模拟研究

为探究一种新型旋流式气化炉冷态流场分布特性及内部结构对其流场的影响,应用计算流体力学( CFD)软件 FLUENT对该气化炉进行三维数值模拟分析。采用RNG K-8湍流模型,通过多点测压实验,对模拟结果进行验证,并且 采用不同的开孔率及旋流片角度组合分析气化炉内部结构对其流场的影响。结果表明：模拟和测压实验结果较为一致; 旋流式气化炉内气流主要做螺旋上升运动;栅板开孔率大小主要影响气化炉内压降、轴向速度以及湍流强度;而旋流片 角度则主要影响切向速度及湍流强度分布。新型旋流式气化炉内部栅板旋流片结构可增加气化反应速率及反应停留 时间,有助于气化反应的进行。     

煤岩坍塌的特殊性及钻井液对策

在煤层气钻井中,煤岩坍塌造成接单根困难、起下钻遇阻遇卡、蹩泵等事故和井下复杂。通过煤岩力学性能测试和结构构造特征分析,分析了煤岩失稳的特殊性及钻井液和其它因素的影响,确定了煤层钻井的钻井液技术对策,优选出钻井液体系及配方,应用表明钾铵聚合物钻井液能有效地防止煤岩井壁失稳。     

抗高温降滤失剂PAX的合成及性能

采用氧化还原体系以2-丙烯酰胺基-2-甲基丙磺酸(AMPS),丙烯酰胺(AM),等乙烯基单体为基本原料合成出了新型抗高温二元共聚物PAX系列处理剂。该降滤失剂在220℃的高温下及饱和盐水中具有良好的降滤失作用。     

井口声发射井筒液气浸检测—时延估计方法

基于高阶统计,提出了井口声发射井筒液气浸检测中的接收和发射声信号之间时延估计的非参数化和参数化方法。通过分析声信号在井筒液中的传播过程,井口声发射井筒液气浸检测中的接收噪声,可近似模型化为空间相关的高斯色噪声。由于四阶累积量对任意高斯噪声的盲目性,因此,较常规互相关估计方法,这些方法可以进一步提高检测概率。计算机模拟结果证实了它们的有效性。     

A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry

Reproduction constraints lead to some a priori information that may prove valuable in econo- metrically modeling inventory dynamics within the U.S. cattle herd. The distributed-lag models estimated for animal inventories suggest an implicit incorporation of the age distribution of the herd that is crucial to understanding the retention/culling (investment) decisions. The estimated equations are validated using post-sample observations that were withheld prior to estimation. The final-form dynamic equations have complex roots and protracted price and investment effects. The parameter estimates are used to calculate intermediate and long-run elasticities at the means of relevant variables.     

'But she didn't say no': an exploration of sibling sexual abuse

Sibling sexual abuse often causes polarities of view in professional and client groups alike. These views range from seeing it as benign to damaging. For professionals new to the field this paper gives an overview of the discussion that sibling sexual abuse is as traumatic as parental sexual abuse, and has lasting impact on its victims. Recognising the particular dynamics of sibling sexual abuse and effect on victims raises the challenge of case management in families where it occurs. This paper will explore this challenge within the New South Wales context.     

Extended structures of mediation: Re-examining brokerage in dynamic networks

In this paper we revisit the concept of brokerage in social networks. We elaborate on the concept of brokerage as a process, identifying three distinct classes of brokerage behavior. Based on this process model, we develop a framework for measuring brokerage opportunities in dynamic relational data. Using data on emergent inter-organizational collaborations, we employ the dynamic brokerage framework to examine the relationship between organizational attributes and coordination in the evolving network. Comparing the findings of our process-based definition with traditional, static approaches, we identify important dimensions of organizational action that would be missed by the latter approach.     

Interorganizational Groups in Human Services: Environmental and Interpersonal Relationships

Despite the frequent use of interorganizational groups in human services, their performance tends to be uneven. A dual focus on both environmental and interpersonal dimensions is required to understand variations in the development and outcomes of these groups. The author proposes a conceputal framework, grounded in open systems theory, exchange theory, and small group theory, to integrate both external and internal perspectives. Four types of interorganizational groups are identified based on their origin (mandated vs. voluntary) and the source of task structure (externally directed vs. internally developed). The four group types are illustrated with scenarios that highlight potential benefits and concerns. Characteristics of each group type are discussed. Further, administrative and policy guidelines are suggested for improving the performance of each type of group.