Changing methodologies for research

Abstract

The methodology of the social sciences has developed in the 21st century to a sub-optimal state and in this way research programs for handling complex societal problems are frustrated. To manage this deadlock the author returns to the original aims of the social sciences. He shows that in the past, concepts and aims were developed that goes beyond this regression. Those original starting points are connected to modern ideas of advanced interdisciplinary research, such as practiced in action science, system dynamics and computer simulation. With this exploration a more advanced methodology for social change and organisational transformation is outlined.     

论高校学科建设中的几个问题

加强高校学科建设,除把握学科建设的意义、内容、基本环节以外,还应关注以下问题:学科建设的阶段性问题,即学科建设大体经历起步、发展、提高三个阶段;学校层面学科建设的内容应包括目标、结构、重点、资源、评估等五个方面;高校学科建设要实现重点突破;把握学科建设的内动力与外动力.     

文化发展动力机制及运行研究

文化是民族的血脉,是人民的精神家园。文化发展需要建立科学的动力机制,文化发展动力机制主要包括目标导向、传承发展、创新驱动、体制保障等机制,建立文化发展动力机制需要把握文化发展运行规律,主要包括动力发掘、动力培育、动力转化、动力反馈,只有形成科学的文化发展动力机制,同时确保其顺畅地运行,才能不断推动文化大发展大繁荣。     

Optimal Treatment Schedule in Insect Pest Control in Viticulture

A model for the control of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana includes two control methods: insecticides and mating disruption. It yields the combination and schedule of application that minimize cost and losses due to the pest. A simulation is presented for an experimental situation.     

产业动态理论研究新进展

论文在产业动态理论的两大研究框架产业动态的动力源和产业演化动态内对产业动态理论的最新研究成果进行梳理,并着重对创新和产业动态的数量研究、产业动态的马尔可夫完美模型及产业生命周期和产业演化模型等几个前沿领域所取得的最新进展与所面临的主要挑战进行总结和评述。     

Large Risks,Limited Liability,and Dynamic Moral Hazard

We study a continuous‐time principal–agent model in which a risk‐neutral agent with limited liability must exert unobservable effort to reduce the likelihood of large but relatively infrequent losses. Firm size can be decreased at no cost or increased subject to adjustment costs. In the optimal contract, investment takes place only if a long enough period of time elapses with no losses occurring. Then, if good performance continues, the agent is paid. As soon as a loss occurs, payments to the agent are suspended, and so is investment if further losses occur. Accumulated bad performance leads to downsizing. We derive explicit formulae for the dynamics of firm size and its asymptotic growth rate, and we provide conditions under which firm size eventually goes to zero or grows without bounds.     

When Is It Okay to Exclude a Member of the Ingroup? Children's and Adolescents’ Social Reasoning

Social exclusion of those who challenge group norms was investigated by asking children and adolescents, adolescents, age 9–13 years (N = 381), to evaluate exclusion of group members who deviated from group norms. Testing predictions from social reasoning developmental theories of group‐based exclusion, children and adolescents evaluated exclusion based on group norms involving allocation of resources and group traditions about dress code. Exclusion of deviant members was viewed as increasingly wrong with age, but also varied by the type of norm the deviant challenged. Participants who reported disliking a deviant member who wanted to distribute money unequally also found it acceptable to exclude them. Those who disliked deviants who went against norms about dress codes did not think exclusion was warranted. These findings are discussed in the context of children's social‐cognitive development regarding peer rejection as well as the role played by moral judgment and group dynamics.     

浅谈普契尼歌剧《蝴蝶夫人》中巧巧桑人物的塑造

本文着重分析普契尼歌剧<蝴蝶夫人>中女主人公的两个唱段,分析包括节奏、速度、力度以及音高等的变化.通过分析可了解普契尼是如何运用这些音乐手段来塑造巧巧桑这一人物和她不同的情感,如:高兴、痛苦、绝望等.     

基于系统动力学的中小型科技企业成长机制研究

中小型科技企业的成长是自身功能系统与外部环境系统间的非线性时间维反馈过程.通过运用系统动力学的理论和方法,构建了含有79个反馈回路的中小型科技企业成长机制模型.模型分析表明完善的中小型科技企业成长机制应包含内生成长机制和外生成长机制两部分,内生成长机制是根本动力,外生成长机制是中小型科技企业成长的必要条件和补充,它们的协调互补决定了中小型科技企业的成长能力和成长空间.     

人工干扰下重大传染病扩散演化的仿真研究——以非典为例

重大传染病发生后若应对不当，往往会借助自然系统或社会系统之间相互依存和相互制约的关系迅速扩散演化，产生一系列次生衍生事件。以重大传染病的发生和发展过程为基础构建其扩散模型，利用系统动力学仿真软件比较不同防控情形下系统演化结果，结果表明：（1）通过对疾病接触系数、自由传播期、开始防控时间进行控制可以改变重大传染病的扩散演化；（2）单独限制人口流动虽可降低传染速率但无法抑制重大传染病的扩散，而同时采取限制人口流动和隔离措施的效果优于单独采取隔离措施。