Dynamics of social assistance: the Norwegian experience in comparative perspective

In the article we ask how long Norwegian recipients of social assistance stay on aid over an eight‐year period? We focus on the populations selected, the design of the study and how spells are recorded and measured. The data set includes nearly the entire 1995 cohort of social assistance claimants (n = 155,000), and contains individual information over eight years (1992–1999), which is the maximum length of a single continuous spell. The study combines a retrospective and a prospective multiple cohort design. The data analysis shows that there is no simple answer to our question; the answer depends on the sample selected, the design, number of spells counted and the chosen measure of central tendency. We find that median duration times vary from two months to 40 months. The conclusion is that a point‐in‐time sample has clearly the longest duration. It makes a big difference whether one measures one or more spells. Because cycling is a common phenomenon, the sum of all spell durations is much higher than that of the first continuous spell. A retrospective design severely underestimates spell durations since many spells are right‐hand censored. As there is no single, adequate answer to our initial question, it is recommended that analysts of social assistance dynamics carefully specify their sample, design and spells counted.     

新时代文化和旅游融合发展的动力、策略与路径

文化是旅游发展的重要根基,旅游是文化发展的重要载体,文旅融合既是文化和旅游互动共荣的客观需要,也是文化和旅游发展的必然趋势.新时代背景下,随着消费升级和数字经济的发展,民众对文化旅游体验的需求转向对更高级的情感和自我实现的需求.面对我国文旅融合发展过程中表现出的主体和策略不够明晰、不确定性增强等问题,需要从多维度探究文旅融合发展的动力、融合发展策略选择与路径.基于对文化和旅游互动关系,以及文旅融合机制、模式、过程及路径的研究述评,分别从文旅融合的内在动力和外在动力视角,围绕产业关联、市场需求、技术创新和政策保障四个方面剖析了文旅融合的动力;提出了放大综合效应、深挖文化内涵、提升市场竞争力、统筹协调等文旅融合发展策略,以及升级产品体系、优化业态组合、培养复合人才和完善管理体制等文旅融合路径,以推动文旅的深度融合.     

Relation of transition probabilities in the Leslie model to those from experimental cumulative distributions

Summary We explore the relationship between transition probabilities in the Leslie model and those derived from experimental cumulative distributions. The nature of the two kinds of probabilities are discussed, and a formula derived for converting from one to the other. A numerical example is given to illustrate the differences.     

Dynamics of buried seed population and seedling cohorts of two dominant weeds in a hill agroecosystem of the humid subtropics of India

Dynamics of the buried seeds and plant population of two dominant weeds, viz.,Emilia sonchifolia (Linn.) DC. andRichardsonia pilosa HBK were studied in the crop fields of Meghalaya, north-east India during radish and maize cropping and intervening fallow periods. The total buried seed population ofR. pilosa was always larger than that ofE. sonchifolia, but the germinable fraction was invariably greater in the latter. A major portion (39–41%) of the viable (germinable+dormant) seed population in both weeds was confined to the surface soil layer (0–5 cm). The viable seed population ofE. sonchifolia peaked during April, while that ofR. pilosa showed two peaks (during August and December). The survival pattern and half-lives of seedling cohorts showed, some differences in the two weed species, but both being summer annuals, their populations behaved in a similar manner by showing higher seedling recruitment (K) and survivorship (p) rates in the summer crop (maize) than in the winter crop (radish). However, the density of plants that could attain adulthood was significantly higher inE. sonchifolia thanR. pilosa which might have resulted in greater seed input of the former to the soil leading to its greater abundance in the crop fields. Supported by the University Grants Commission, New Delhi (Grants No. F. 3-37/87 SR II)     

改革开放与当代中国社会发展

当代中国的社会发展是同改革开放荣辱与共、以改革开放的途径与方式推进的。其中的体制改革是当代中国社会发展的根本内在动力 ,对外开放则是当代中国社会发展的基本外部条件 ,两者共同构成了推动中国社会发展的动力机制和基本手段。要推进 2 1世纪中国社会发展必须继续依靠改革开放并且进行改革开放的政策创新。     

城市化动力机制及其作用机理研究

本文以中国城市化的发展实践为背景,从宏观层面上总结、分析了中国城市化发展的动力机制,从经济学的角度,对改革开放以来市场经济动力机制的作用机理进行了系统的分析和研究,并提出了城市化市场经济机制作用机理的演化模型。     

胎次递进人口方程组解的一个性质

本文利用泛函分析的方法证明了下述结果:胎次递进人口方程组的解在某种意义下连续地依赖于胎次递进比{λ_0(s),λ_1(s),…λ_N(s)},本结果具有实际意义.     

The Effects of Internal Career Orientation on Multiple Dimensions of Work-Family Conflict

The relationship of internal career orientations with 3 forms of work-family conflict (time-based, strain-based, and behavior-based) is examined in this study. In addition, work-family conflict is considered bi-directionally, using both work interference with family and family interference with work. A sample of 247 Executive MBAs with multiple demands was used to study this complex relationship. The findings suggest that those with a getting free internal career orientation experienced the greatest levels of strain-based work interference with family and both behavior-based forms of conflict. Furthermore, those that were getting high experienced the most time-based work interference with family conflict.     

牛鞭效应的系统动力学分析

本文用系统动力学原理研究了供应链中牛鞭效应产生的原因及相应的缓解对策。建立了多节点供应链系统的动力学模型,给出了系统动力学的迭代表达式和框图,并定性地说明了牛鞭效应产生的内在机理。指出了牛鞭效应产生的原因是由于供应链系统需求预测所表现出的正反馈动力学特性。     

金属切削润滑冷却液作用的二重性及其选用原则

金属切削时,使用切削润滑冷却液可以提高切削速度,减少刀具的物理磨损,节约生产成本,提高产品质量;另一方面,也腐蚀机床。本文详细地分析了其二重性及其选用原则。