The almost sure convergence rate of the estimator of optimized certainty equivalent risk measure under α-mixing sequences

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) model is a kind of financial risk measure that is extensively supported and accepted by international financial community. Its optimized form can be regarded as an optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) risk measurement. In this paper, we mainly discuss and analyze the strong laws of large numbers and the convergence rate of OCE's estimator under α-mixing sequences. The result shows that the almost sure convergence rate of CVaR estimator is given by the results of OCE estimator. Its convergence rate is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size under certain conditions. Its effectiveness is verified by simulation experiments for two classical α-mixing sequences.     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

Complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers for pairwise NQD random variables

The authors study the strong convergence for sequences of pairwise negatively quadrant dependent (NQD) random variables under some wide conditions, and present some new theorems on the complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers. The obtained results extend and improve some theorems in existing literature.     

我国学前教育地方立法研究

学前教育地方立法是我国学前教育立法体系的有机组成部分，截至2020 年1 月，我国现行有效的学前教育地方性法规 规章共61 部，呈现出立法时间跨度大，立法主体覆盖面广，立法模式体例多样等特征。地方立法一定程度上规范着地方学前 教育的有序开展，但也存在部分省市立法机关对当地学前教育立法关注度不高、部分立法难以满足当前学前教育发展需求、表 达不规范、可操作性欠佳、缺乏地方特色以及冲突与越位等问题。对此，应从科学确定学前教育地方立法内容、建立地方性法 律适时更新制度、健全学前教育地方立法调研制度、加强地方立法专业化制度建设等方面予以优化。     

民族自治地方制定民族区域自治法实施办法的几点思考

自治地方制定民族区域自治法实施办法迫在眉睫。自治地方制定自治法实施办法存在不少问题。本文就自治地方制定自治法实施办法存在的主要问题,即认识问题和利益协调问题,提出自治地方制定自治法实施办法的几点思考。     

A strong law of large numbers for independent random variables under non-additive probabilities

Abstract

Under non‐additive probabilities, cluster points of the empirical average have been proved to quasi-surely fall into the interval constructed by either the lower and upper expectations or the lower and upper Choquet expectations. In this paper, based on the initiated notion of independence, we obtain a different Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund type strong law of large numbers. Then the Kolmogorov type strong law of large numbers can be derived from it directly, stating that the closed interval between the lower and upper expectations is the smallest one that covers cluster points of the empirical average quasi-surely.     

《尚书·洪范》与公羊“大一统”思想——以“建用皇极”与“正五始”为中心

作为公羊学的核心内容之一,“大一统”说与《尚书·洪范》的“建用皇极”说有着深刻的思想关联。首先,二者皆以“君极”之立作为王道之行的关键因素;其次,二者皆以“王正”作为“君极”之立的基本前提,且谓基于此,“一统”之义方得成立;再次,二者皆蕴含了改元立制以厚养万民之义。无论是“一统”说还是“皇极”论,固然均表现出鲜明的尊君色彩,但二者所强调的“归元”或“君极”思想实则又内涵着抑君乃至“革命”之意。因此,“大一统”并非简单地意味着思想、观念、文化、制度等方面的绝对统一化,而“皇极”论也并非主张君主专制。在儒家看来,君王之于天下人心,本质上不过起着召唤与凝聚的作用。     

市场经济特质与民商法之品格

民商立法若能正确反映市场经济的客观规律和必然条件,构建起和谐的法律体系,必须全面认识和把握市场经济的特质.市场经济即商品经济,它是人类社会不可逾越的经济形态.不同社会历史阶段的市场经济的发展程度不同,但都有着其共同的特质,民商法也即具有相应的共同品格.交换性、多样性、平等性、自愿性、利益性、信用性、知识性、开放性、竞争性和法治性,公开、公正与公平性是市场经济的重要特质和民商法必须具有之品格.     

The Roman Catholic Church: A Centuries Old History of Awareness of Clerical Child Sexual Abuse (from the First to the 19th Century)

Debates in international forums and in mainstream media on the role, responsibility, liability, and response of ecclesiastical authorities of the Roman Catholic Church (RCC) toward clerical child sexual abuse (cCSA) fail to take into account the historical roots and awareness of the problem. Reports also fail to mention the historic organizational laws RCC developed over centuries. In contrast, RCC documents evidence that the Catholic Church not only carried century’s old history of cCSA, but also repeatedly condemned cCSA by successive papal authorities, organizational laws, and institutional management mechanisms. During the first millennium, however, church laws remained confined to the bookshelves and were not converted into appropriate management policies and infrastructural models. This was largely due to the absence of a central administrative organizational structure, which developed later in the 12th century, following the Second Council of Lateran (1139) when the Papacy asserted its authority to establish administrative control over the organizational church. It was only then that management policies started to be framed and institutional structures enacted to deal more appropriately with cCSA from the 14th to 20th centuries. Despite this, RCC developed a culture of secrecy using clandestine organizational management models and institutional laws prescribed in 1568, 1622, 1741, 1866, 1922, and 1962 which aimed to manage cCSA. The current study traces reported cCSA as far back as the first century and critically examines the organizational laws, and institutional policies developed by RCC to address clerical sexual misconduct up to the end of the 19th century.     

元朝野生动物保护政策及其对旅游资源保护的启示

在中国历史上,元朝统治者比较懂得爱惜野生动物。在这种思想意识的支配下,他们制定了一套完整的保护野生动物的条例和法规,详细规定了狩猎和禁猎的时间、地点及捕猎野生动物的种类,并在实践中认真贯彻执行,使元朝的野生动物保护工作走上了法制轨道,取得了明显的社会效益、经济效益和生态效益。这一切对于今天的旅游资源开发与保护仍有借鉴意义。