精英决策模式起源及其合理性探析

精英主义理论兴起于19世纪末期,作为一种政治理念,早在古希腊时期就已经有了萌芽。尽管不同的人对精英主义有不同的理解甚至激烈的批判,其基本内容却是强调精英统治的必然性和合法性。传统观点认为作为一种价值判断,它既保守又反民主,但精英模式仍然经常被当作公共政策中的一种分析模型,甚至一种主要的分析模型,毕竟它本身是在不断发展变化的。     

文学与学文

对文学的反思需要建立一个新的知识场域,即用知识考古的方式求得对文学意义新的开掘.对于日益僵化、窄化的文学(无论是概念、理念、范式、学科整合,还是分析方法、研究手段),这种反思性建构工作都是必须的.文章试图从"文学"中"学文"的线索入手进行一些探讨.     

关于“十二五”文化产业规划编制若干问题的思考

1998年文化部设立文化产业司以来,中国文化产业的战略地位不断提升并不断发展壮大。目前,各级政府“十二五”文化产业规划编制工作已经启动。在汲取“十一五”文化产业规划编制经验教训的基础上,“十二五”文化产业规划编制应注意：高水平、高规格制定国家级文化产业专项规划;站在时代的高起点上树立新的编制思路;夯实规划编制研究基础;加强对规划编制的管理;科学整合编制队伍资源。     

对我国商法法典化的反思

民法典的制定使得我国民商事立法体例面临着重大的抉择,考察法国、德国和日本商法典的修改,结合我国民商事立法的实践,比较务实的选择是制定一部《商事通则》。     

Estimation of cost allocation coefficients at the farm level using an entropy approach

This paper aims to estimate the farm cost allocation coefficients from whole-farm input costs. An entropy approach was developed under a Tobit formulation and was applied to a sample of farms from the 2004 Farm Accountancy Data Network data base for Alentejo region, Southern Portugal. A Generalized Maximum Entropy model and Cross Generalized Entropy model were developed to the sample conditions and were tested. Model results were assessed in terms of their precision and estimation power and were compared with the observed data. The entropy approach showed to be a flexible and valid tool to estimate incomplete information, namely regarding farm costs.     

Using a Truncated C p Statistic for Variable Selection in Multiple Linear Regression

In multiple linear regression analysis each lower-dimensional subspace L of a known linear subspace M of ? ⁿ corresponds to a non empty subset of the columns of the regressor matrix. For a fixed subspace L, the C _p statistic is an unbiased estimator of the mean square error if the projection of the response vector onto L is used to estimate the expected response. In this article, we consider two truncated versions of the C _p statistic that can also be used to estimate this mean square error. The C _p statistic and its truncated versions are compared in two example data sets, illustrating that use of the truncated versions may result in models different from those selected by standard C _p .     

An Illustration of Matrix Formulation for a Probabilistic Risk-Assessment Study

A matrix formulation is described and numerically illustrated to calculate the public risk and identify the dominant contributors to it arising from the operation of a nuclear power plant. The matrix methodology is used as a superstructure in a probabilistic risk-assessment study to organize the calculated probabilities and to facilitate the analysis and documentation effort. The matrix structure is built to manipulate the large amount of data arising from event and fault-tree analysis and other supporting analyses. It lends itself easily to computerization and provides an analytic capability to identify dominant contributors to risk. It is a useful tool for aiding sensitivity analyses and also a potential formalism for standardization of risk-assessment studies. This tool is already used in the two recent comprehensive nuclear power plant risk-assessment efforts, the Zion and Indian Point Safety Studies.     

The Bowl of Terror: A Case Study of an Adolescent Perpetrator of Sexual Abuse

This article describes a complex multimodal intervention with a family where inappropriate sexual contact had occurred between Taro and his younger sister Lara, when they were young children. The family presented to clinical services when Lara was brought to hospital with suicidal ideation, traumatic flashbacks and regressed behaviour at 13 years of age. Treatment involved multiple components: family work with all members of the family individual work with Lara, joint work with Lara and Taro, and finally, a brief intervention with Taro. This article focuses primarily on the therapist's work with Taro, the perpetrator of the inappropriate sexual contact. The Adult Attachment interview (AAI), a semi‐structured interview, was used by the therapist to assess Taro's developmental experiences and psychological functioning. Information from the AAI helped the therapist identify both the relationship factors that had contributed to the perpetration of sexual abuse and the self‐protective strategies Taro had come to use in order to elicit maximum comfort and protection from neglectful attachment figures. The therapist used the functional formulation derived from the AAI to structure a time‐limited intervention.     

期权定价原理的数理逻辑探析

对股票期权定价原理中的数理逻辑方面的思路进行详细的剖析,从随机偏微分方程途径与概率论途径两个角度仔细描述了期权定价过程中,每个具体的主要演进步骤。文中内容以一盖全地揭示出现代金融理论在估计金融创新工具价值方面,先进的数学技术是如何发挥有效作用的。我们以欧式看涨期权为例,分析Black-Scholes定价思路中的数理逻辑的演绎过程。     

当前我国公共政策制定中交易的学理分析

政策制定中的交易是一种基于私利之上的寻租行为和合谋,是一种危害极大的行为,它的产生主要因利益团体的需求、政策制定者的自利性以及政策制定体制的局限、不完善和监督的薄弱等。鉴于此,当前我国政策制定领域的建设应着重从规范制定体制、加强监督、扩大参与、增强制定者的服务意识和道德建设四个方面着手。