An Illustration of Matrix Formulation for a Probabilistic Risk-Assessment Study

A matrix formulation is described and numerically illustrated to calculate the public risk and identify the dominant contributors to it arising from the operation of a nuclear power plant. The matrix methodology is used as a superstructure in a probabilistic risk-assessment study to organize the calculated probabilities and to facilitate the analysis and documentation effort. The matrix structure is built to manipulate the large amount of data arising from event and fault-tree analysis and other supporting analyses. It lends itself easily to computerization and provides an analytic capability to identify dominant contributors to risk. It is a useful tool for aiding sensitivity analyses and also a potential formalism for standardization of risk-assessment studies. This tool is already used in the two recent comprehensive nuclear power plant risk-assessment efforts, the Zion and Indian Point Safety Studies.     

The Bowl of Terror: A Case Study of an Adolescent Perpetrator of Sexual Abuse

This article describes a complex multimodal intervention with a family where inappropriate sexual contact had occurred between Taro and his younger sister Lara, when they were young children. The family presented to clinical services when Lara was brought to hospital with suicidal ideation, traumatic flashbacks and regressed behaviour at 13 years of age. Treatment involved multiple components: family work with all members of the family individual work with Lara, joint work with Lara and Taro, and finally, a brief intervention with Taro. This article focuses primarily on the therapist's work with Taro, the perpetrator of the inappropriate sexual contact. The Adult Attachment interview (AAI), a semi‐structured interview, was used by the therapist to assess Taro's developmental experiences and psychological functioning. Information from the AAI helped the therapist identify both the relationship factors that had contributed to the perpetration of sexual abuse and the self‐protective strategies Taro had come to use in order to elicit maximum comfort and protection from neglectful attachment figures. The therapist used the functional formulation derived from the AAI to structure a time‐limited intervention.     

期权定价原理的数理逻辑探析

对股票期权定价原理中的数理逻辑方面的思路进行详细的剖析,从随机偏微分方程途径与概率论途径两个角度仔细描述了期权定价过程中,每个具体的主要演进步骤。文中内容以一盖全地揭示出现代金融理论在估计金融创新工具价值方面,先进的数学技术是如何发挥有效作用的。我们以欧式看涨期权为例,分析Black-Scholes定价思路中的数理逻辑的演绎过程。     

Paternal domination: Its influence on child guidance results 1

Acknowledging the limitations of adhering to one particular theoretical orientation in helping clients with multiple issues, psychotherapy integration in treatment becomes a prominent trend in clinical practice. However, we have few guidelines for an integrated case formulation. Also, there have been some concerns that available treatment options limit and even pre-determine how clinicians understand and formulate cases. In order to address these concerns, this article first critically reviews the psychotherapy integration movement and highlights social work contributions to this movement. Next, using a clinical case example, we illustrate an integrated case formulation in clinical social work practice, which comprehensively assesses a client-in-context from psychodynamic, behavioral, and cognitive approaches. We also delineate how social workers can directly link this integrated assessment to selecting the integrated treatment options to custom-fit with the idiosyncratic needs of the client. This formulation is then truly client-centered. Thus, formulating a case is developing a theory of a client.     

影像和权力的双重建构——当代韩国电影异域形象探析

米歇尔·福柯的权力理论与波德里亚的拟像概念共同衍生出了后现代语境下影像同权力之间彼此交织的复杂状况,这样的状况在当代韩国电影对中、美、朝三类异域形象的打造中得到了明显的体现。其中,中国形象被凝固为＂被韩国人征服＂和＂对韩国人依恋＂的套式;对美国形象的塑造表现了敬畏与仇恨交织的含混情绪;对朝鲜形象的刻画则呈现出从坚硬向柔软过渡的微妙形态。从这些不同的形象塑造中可见出潜伏于韩民族内心的深层次文化冲动和复杂的权力纠葛,同时也可见其更加立体、更具时代感的＂他者＂心态。     

Sequential Procedures for Selecting the Most Probable Multinomial Cell When a Nuisance Cell Is Present

Abstract

This article considers the problem of selecting the most probable cell in a multinomial distribution in the presence of a nuisance cell. Two open sequential procedures are proposed and studied. One is a two-stage procedure and the other a multistage procedure.     

Towards a generic sustainable urban transport strategy for middle-sized cities in Asia: Lessons from Ningbo, Kanpur and Solo

Almost 10 years ago the World Bank and UNDP expressed grave concerns about the likely future adverse impact of motorization on middle-sized cities in Asia and the Pacific region.¹ They claimed that, while many mega and primary cities in the region have an acknowledged transport crisis that has attracted major planning efforts, and extensive large-scale investment, the middle-sized cities (with only a fraction of the resources available to them) remain neglected and as result will reach their own crisis points unless effective policies are developed and implemented. Both agencies argued that catching the problems at an early stage would offer the advantage of developing a more systematic approach to tackling problems associated with unabated motorization and the opportunity to develop a generic method that could be applied to many medium-sized cities throughout the region. With this in mind, the World Bank, through UNDP and ESCAP, completed a study in 1998 directed by the author which sought to establish what generic strategic steps should be taken to prepare proactive measures to confront the challenges that motorization poses for such cities. The study drew extensively on the urban development and motorization experiences of three middle-sized cities in Asia—Kanpur in India, Ningbo in China and Solo in Indonesia—and recommended building blocks of a generic sustainable transport strategy for the region. Seven years on from the completion of this study, this paper examines the validity of the original motorization fears, re-examines the study's key findings and recommendations, and concludes that many still have resonance today.     

Has It Really Been Demonstrated That Most Genomic Research Findings Are False?

In a widely cited article, Ioannidis argued that most published research findings are false; particularly discovery research involving massive testing, genomics being a typical example. However, his argument ignores adjustment for multiple testing and thus should be taken with a large grain of salt. This is a potential example for statistics courses that concentrate on problem formulation.     

论公共政策制定过程中参与公众的发展

公众参与公共政策制定过程中,参与公众本身存在以下问题:参与公众的参与水平发育不均衡;参与公众本身整体上正处于发育阶段;参与公众的结构不合理;参与公众的组织化程度较低且发展不平衡;参与公众的参与需求旺盛但理性、能力不足;参与公众参与过程中理性和情绪的失衡.至少在现阶段,作为参与主体的公众仍然处于发育阶段,其成熟程度还难以支撑充分有效有序大规模的政治参与.所以,不仅要促进公众参与,更要促进公众本身的发育和成熟.促进参与公众本身发展的措施包括:推动社会阶级-阶层结构由金字塔形结构向菱形结构的转变;普及政策参与的公民教育;促进非政府组织发展;深化政治体制改革.     

论共有人法定先买权

无论在美国法上还是在德国法上,先买权总是相对于第三人的一种特权。其配置之基础。绝非对于共有关系之简单否定,毋宁是在促进经济利益最大化之目标下,寻求单独所有与共同所有之间的平衡。从立法论角度考虑,使优先购买权具备形成权性质,更有利于立法政策之贯彻。“物权效力说”与“债权效力说”之争论是一场围绕伪命题的争论,至于共有人优先购买权究为对人的优先购买权抑或对物的优先购买权,则是一个依立法政策为转移的问题。