政治与经济:中国改革的可能走向

经济发展与社会稳定为何呈现出"负相关"的关系?学术界的主流形成了三类具有代表性的分析框架:"宪政转型"、"体制落后"和"分配不公"。这三类框架具有各自的特点和局限性。在马克思的理论框架中,关于经济发展与社会稳定的关系背后,隐藏着一个更为深刻的相关性:经济基础与上层建筑之间的关系。这与主流观点有着本质的区别。对于中国当下的现实,马克思的分析框架有着极为深刻的解释力。这种解释的要义在于:(1)经济发展与经济基础的变化是同一过程的两个方面;(2)经济基础的变化必然要求上层建筑与之相适应;(3)经济基础与上层建筑的内在张力必然催生相应的政治诉求;(4)经济发展与社会稳定之间的"负相关",正是这种"政治诉求"没有得到有效满足的表现。因此,在经济基础日趋多元化的背景下,既要强化共产党的执政地位,又要确保市场化的改革方向。这个难题如何解决,不仅对中国未来的改革构成了巨大挑战,也将决定中国未来几十年甚至上百年的前途命运。     

当代中国的社会分层与社会稳定

社会分层是现代化进程中必然出现的社会现象。我国的社会分层一方面从根本上保障了我国社会的整体稳定,但另一方面也存在着一些对社会稳定的不利因素,如贫富差距拉大、中产阶级弱小、身份壁垒等。这些问题可通过改革过时的制度与政策、完善社会保障制度、合理配置公共资源等途径来解决。     

The Stability of Social Groups in Childhood and Adolescence: The Role of the Classroom Social Environment.

This study provides a developmental analysis of childhood and adolescent social relationships within the school context. The social groups of 220 fourth graders and 475 seventh graders were tracked over a one year interval. The initial results indicated that approximately 30% of the social groups were identified as stable in that they maintained at least 50% of their membership over the one year interval. However, the stability in group affiliations was a function of the stability of the composition of the classroom. When schools did not promote classrooms as a unit, only 6.8% of social groups were stable, as compared to 55% of groups being stable when the school did promote classrooms as a unit. This school effect in group stability was demonstrated by a high correlation (rs = .97) between classroom stability and group stability. Even in unstable classrooms, individuals were more likely to maintain affiliations when group members were assigned to the same classroom. This work suggests that stable environments promote stable relationships, which in turn, may promote greater continuity in the organization of behavioral patterns.     

民族团结边疆稳定战略下培育和规范民间组织研究

从经济学、社会学和政治学的视角看待民间组织的功能,常被看成是对“市场失灵”与“政府失灵”的有益补充,能够增强社会资本的储量,是民主的治理方式或是对国家的替代甚至抵制。基于民族团结边疆稳定战略下的民间组织培育发展和规范管理,政府应对慈善公益类、经济类、科技类、社区服务类民间组织采取多样化的培育支持策略,针对民族政治色彩浓厚且以社会自治为目的的民间组织采取不鼓励、限制其发展的分类实施控制。     

略论高校安全稳定综合治理模式的构建

高校的安全稳定是社会稳定的重要组成部分,高校是否稳定,不仅关系到高校自身生存、发展和建设,而且关系到国家的政治稳定、社会的长治久安和经济的持续快速发展。高校稳定主要包含政治上的安定团结：师生的思想情绪稳定;教学科研和生活秩序稳定;校园环境安全稳定。综合治理模式的构建主要从三个方面着手：制定应急反应预案;长效机制建设;综合治理。     

政治参与与政治稳定

政治现代化的过程,既是政治民主化的过程,也是政治参与不断扩大的过程。在通常情况下,政治参与对政治稳定具有积极的作用,但政治参与与政治稳定之间并不存在完全的正相关关系,有时政治参与也会导致政治不稳定。因此,在我国推进现代化建设的过程中,如何既能够不断提高政治参与的水平,发展社会主义民主政治,又能够维护社会政治稳定,为社会现代化发展提供良好的政治环境已成为一项十分紧迫的课题。     

弱势群体对中国社会政治稳定的影响

在现代化进取过程中,中国社会结构所发生的重大变化,尤其是弱势群体的绝对数量的增加,使得利益差距在不断扩大,利益冲突也日渐明显,由此而引发出了政治领域中的不稳定因素。因此,关爱弱势群体并研究弱势群体对政治稳定的影响,不仅是当前政治工作的迫切需要,更是当代中国现代化进程中的一个重大课题。解决好这个问题,对于实现十七大的战略目标,全面创建和谐社会具有十分重要的意义。     

和谐社会建设中的中心城市社会稳定问题研究——以昆明为研究个案

基于中心城市社会稳定工作的重要性和复杂性,做好中心城市的社会稳定工作,维护中心城市的社会稳定已经成为当前促进我国整个社会和谐发展的关键环节。做好新时期中心城市的社会稳定工作,从基本方针上来说,必须正确处理好稳定与改革、发展之间的相互关系,在社会稳定中推进改革发展,在改革发展中实现社会稳定;从维护和实现中心城市社会稳定的基本途径和要求来说,一是要正确认识和把握好维护中心城市社会稳定与促进中心城市经济社会发展的关系,在中心城市经济社会的协调发展中实现和维护中心城市的社会稳定;二是要正确认识和处理好中心城市社会稳定与中心城市和谐社会建设的关系,通过和谐社会建设实现中心城市的社会稳定与发展。     

宗教事务依法管理的路径及基础——以四川藏区依法治理为视角

Under the situation that traditional beliefs have remained basically unchanged while the social economy has developed and population mobility has increased, with the trend of an in-creasing diversity in beliefs, and an increasing number of religious followers and temples, the management of religious affairs has become more difficult. In ethnic areas, the speed of moderniza-tion has accelerated, ethnic interactions are fre-quent, and the beneficial conflict or cultural con-flict among various ethnic groups has become nor-mal; the impact of modernity, ways of life, the value and ideals of the temples’ traditional culture and educational model brings new social pressure for the monks who are adapting to modernization, and making a leap in development while safeguard-ing traditional rituals, culture, religious education and development. The number of criminal cases involving monks has increased, which brings a strong negative influence to the religious followers in Tibetan areas. All these factors are directly in-fluencing the stability and harmonious development of the Tibetan areas. As the second-largest Tibetan area, the geo-graphical location of Sichuan’s Tibetan areas is u-nique. In ancient times, the policy of “keeping the Tibetan areas stable means keeping Kham sta-ble at first” had been an important measure for the central government to manage all of the Tibetan ar-eas. From the Qing dynasty to the present times, it still has a practical use, and even has special val-ue in the process of safeguarding the “long-term stability of Sichuan”, especially when the people have but a hazy understanding of the relationship between the freedom of faith and managing reli-gious affairs according to the law in Tibetan areas, and one needs to have a legal response to it. Hence, “keeping Kham stable” needs to depend on the law, and legal means should be taken to safeguard the harmony and stability of the Tibetan areas in Sichuan. Management of the religious affairs according to the law is an inevitable requirement for China to promote the goal of ruling the country by law, com-prehensively deepen reform, and promote the mod-ernization of the country’s governance system and capability. Based on an active response to the guidance principle of strengthening the manage-ment of religious affairs according to the law pro-posed by the Central Government, and the Sichuan Provincial Government, we should standardize reli-gious activities and affairs, insist on a combination of legal management and policy guidance, adopt various measures, search for a practicable path to realize the significant goal of managing the religious affairs according to the law in Tibetan areas of Si-chuan. This article proposes some methods of man-aging the religious affairs according to the law as follows:1 ) To insist on the CPC’s leadership in reli-gious work and management of religious affairs;2 ) to actively and reliably promote the systematic con-
struction of the legalization of religious affairs;3 ) to insist on the combination of legal management and policy guidance;4 ) to encourage the public to manage religious affairs according to law; 5 ) to standardize the scale and number of monks by u-sing new methods of management;6 ) to strengthen the role of the “four troops” ( Party and Govern-ment leading cadres,ethnic religious work cadres, ethnic minority cadres and talents, and religious believers ) , especially religious believers; 7 ) to make full use of the regulatory framework of the Buddhist community; 8 ) to create conditions for those monks who wish to return to secular life;9 ) to distinguish the boundary between normal and il-legal religious activities, between folk custom and extreme religious concepts; 10 ) to identify and distinguish between “monks and lay people”, and“ordinary cases and religious cases”. At present, there are four foundations for managing religious affairs according to the law:1 ) the idea that freedom of faith is not only one’s right, but also one’s duty has gradually enjoyed popular support;2 ) there is a good policy base for managing religious affairs according to the law;3 ) there is a relatively strong theoretical basis for managing religious affairs according to the law;4 ) there exists good legal support for managing reli-gious affairs according to the law.     

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non-OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis

This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911–2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non-OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is used to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteristic, this approach samples data from the entire data set, borrowing the strength across data set and enabling to model distributions even for subsets with scarce data. The modelled frequencies and severities are combined in frequency-consequence curves, showing that accidents for all dam purposes are more frequent in non-OECD (without China) and their maximum consequences are larger than in OECD countries. Multipurpose dams also have higher frequencies and maximum consequences than single-purpose dams. In addition, the developed methodology explicitly models time dependence to identify trends in accident frequencies over the analyzed period. Downward trends are found for almost all dam purposes confirming that technological development and implementation of safety measures are likely to have a positive impact on dam safety. The results of the analysis provide insights for dam risk management and decision-making processes by identifying key risk factors related to country groups and dam purposes as well as changes over time.