如何做好勘察设计项目计划管理

21世纪是信息社会和知识经济时代 ,现代项目管理成为最主要的管理方式 ,本文试用现代项目管理理论对如何做好勘察设计项目的计划管理进行探讨。     

高师生英语教学技能训练体系设计

本文认为制定高师生英语教学技能项目，应当以教育科学理论为依据来划分常规技能和特殊技能，并组织学生开展目标、操作、评价三位一体训练体系以提高英语教学水平，同时提出加强语言教学理论和实践课程的建议     

由所有权形态看中英中古赋税基本理论的差异

中英中古早期历史发展所形成的私有制基础和土地所有制的现实条件导致了“低度私有”的所有权形态。而同为“低度私有”,对中国和英国赋税基本理论却造成了不同影响。在英国,在“低度私有”的形态下,土地所有权因多层分割而变得模糊不清,从而使土地税的征收难以实施;相反,国民对动产以及人们习惯区分于动产的工商之入的所有却清晰而且牢固,不存在土地关系中的分层与阻隔,所以征收是可能的。在中国,基于“溥天之下,莫非王土;率土之滨,莫非王臣”的古老理论,征收土地税和人头税不仅具有可能性,而且具有必然性。这样,中英中古赋税基本理论依据经济、社会条件的变化将它们设定为不同历史阶段赋税征收的主要项目也就顺理成章了。     

Barnard Convex Sets

In calculating significance levels for statistical non inferiority tests, the critical regions that satisfy the Barnard convexity condition have a central role. According to a theorem proved by Röhmel and Mansmann (1999 Röhmel , J. , Mansmann , U. ( 1999 ). Unconditional nonasymptotic one sided tests for independent binomial proportions when the interest lies in showing noninferiority and or superiority . Biometr. J. 2 : 149 – 170 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), when the critical regions satisfy this condition, the significance level for non inferiority tests can be calculated much more efficiently. In this study, the sets that fulfil the Barnard convexity condition are called Barnard convex sets, and because of their relevance, we studied their properties independently of the context from which the sets originated. Among several results, we found that Barnard convex sets are a convex geometry and that each Barnard convex set has a unique basis. Also, we provide an algorithm for calculating the Barnard convex hull of any set. Finally, we present some applications of the concept of the Barnard convex hull of a set for non inferiority tests.     

Some statistical issues in weather experimentation

A number of topics of statistical methodology in weather modification are discussed. The time sequence of unit definition, classification and randomization is shown to affect the types of units that can be used validly, and this casts doubt on the value of blocking. Re-randomization (permutation) tests are recommended as the only reliable method of confirmatory inference for weather experiments. Some aspects of such tests are examined, including a procedure for multiple comparisons. The plague of multiplicity of tests is discussed and warned against. Doubts about cumulative evaluations of "all" experiment's are expressed. A case is argued for examination of some non-randomized seeding operations. Consid¬ering the dearth of randomized data, it is argued that careful evaluation of seeding operations should be undertaken.     

Estimation of Balanced Simultaneous Confidence Sets for SIR Models

Stochastic compartmental (e.g., SIR) models have proven useful for studying the epidemics of childhood diseases while taking into account the variability of the epidemic dynamics. Here, we present a method for estimating balanced simultaneous confidence sets for the mean sample path of a stochastic SIR model, thus providing a simple representation of both the typical behavior and the variability of the epidemic. The confidence sets are estimated by a bootstrap procedure, using asymptotic properties of density dependent jump Markov processes. The method is applied to chickenpox epidemics in France and the coverage probability of the confidence sets is estimated in that context.     

Perfect Forward Simulation via Simulated Tempering

Several authors discuss how the simulated tempering scheme provides a very simple mechanism for introducing regenerations within a Markov chain. In this article we explain how regenerative simulated tempering schemes provide a very natural mechanism for perfect simulation. We use this to provide a perfect simulation algorithm, which uses a single-sweep forward-simulation without the need for recursively searching through negative times. We demonstrate this algorithm in the context of several examples.     

民国时期河北水灾频发的原因探析

河北地处华北,按其地理位置和气候特征而言,应以旱灾为主。但是民国38年间,河北的水灾竟超过旱灾,打破了传统＂南涝北旱＂的说法,成为对河北危害最大的灾种。文章通过对民国38年河北水灾情况进行简单梳理分析发现：民国时期河北水灾的发生多是由于连降大雨、河流溃堤决口造成,这除了与河北的地形条件、季风气候特点、河流的分布状况等自然因素有一定关系外,主要还与民国时期政府不重水利、战乱年代对水利设施和森林植被严重破坏等社会因素有重要关系。所以,预防灾害并非难事,只要国家稳定,注重水利建设和自然环境保护,很多灾害是可以避免的。     

影响学术期刊质量的因素及其对策研究

高等学校学报质量是学报工作的重点,以《湖北民族学院学报(自然科学版)》为例,对影响学报质量的因素进行了全面的分析,提出在众多因素中学术质量是影响学报质量最主要的因素,并提出了相应的对策。     

地下钱庄案频发的思考

以广东“杜氏地下钱庄”案和上海“罗怀韬地下钱庄”案为例,对当前地下钱庄案频发冲击金融市场及经济秩序、助长国内非法资金清洗出境、影响房地产和资本市场等危害性进行了分析,提出了多部门配合打击、实施“疏”的手段、健全完善相关法律规定等有关建议,以期对当前反洗钱工作有所裨益。