维护我国石蜡蜡烛产业经济安全的策略

维护经济安全是我国入世后需要长期研究的战略主题。我国石蜡蜡烛产业不断遭遇美国反倾销、反规避调查和欧盟反倾销调查的纠缠,其经济安全面临着严峻挑战。基于我国石蜡蜡烛产业频繁遭遇国际贸易摩擦的现状,分析其对我国石蜡蜡烛产业的影响,并从6个方面提出应对国际贸易摩擦、维护我国石蜡蜡烛产业经济安全的策略。     

价格传导问题综述及量化分析

本文通过对国际市场价格变动向我国市场价格传导②、我国上游产品价格变动向下游产品价格传导的定量与定性分析,描述了国际市场价格向我国市场价格传导,以及我国上游行业价格向下游行业价格传导的规律,并据此对“上下游产品价格传导阻滞”问题进行了解释③。通过分析,得出初步结论：当前我国上游产品价格上涨向下游产品价格的传导已充分显现,并不存在阻滞问题,上下游产品市场竞争格局不同是导致其价格传导变动幅度不一致的主要原因。     

金融经济周期理论研究新进展

基于契约理论,金融经济周期理论在思想上继承了理性预期和货币主义学派的传统,在研究方法上借鉴了真实经济周期理论的动态一般均衡建模方法(DGEM),在周期传导机制上突破了传统周期理论.这一理论从借贷双方委托代理问题切入研究金融加速器效应,对经济短期剧烈波动进行了全新的阐释.     

“预制语块”在以元认知理论为指导的大学英语写作教学中的应用

在对“预制语块”、元认知理论的内涵进行分析的基础上,结合目前高校大学英语写作教学的特点,探讨了“预制语块”在以元认知理论为指导的大学英语写作教学中的应用。     

Notes on testing carry-over effects in continuous data under an incomplete block crossover design

We consider hypothesis testing and estimation of carry-over effects in continuous data under an incomplete block crossover design when comparing two experimental treatments with a placebo. We develop procedures for testing differential carry-over effects based on the weighted-least-squares (WLS) method. We apply Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the performance of these test procedures in a variety of situations. We use the data regarding the forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁) readings taken from a double-blind crossover trial comparing two different doses of formoterol with a placebo to illustrate the use of test procedures proposed here.     

Disaster response on September 11, 2001 through the lens of statistical network analysis

The rescue and relief operations triggered by the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City demanded collaboration among hundreds of organisations. To shed light on the response to the September 11, 2001 attacks and help to plan and prepare the response to future disasters, we study the inter-organisational network that emerged in response to the attacks. Studying the inter-organisational network can help to shed light on (1) whether some organisations dominated the inter-organisational network and facilitated communication and coordination of the disaster response; (2) whether the dominating organisations were supposed to coordinate disaster response or emerged as coordinators in the wake of the disaster; and (3) the degree of network redundancy and sensitivity of the inter-organisational network to disturbances following the initial disaster. We introduce a Bayesian framework which can answer the substantive questions of interest while being as simple and parsimonious as possible. The framework allows organisations to have varying propensities to collaborate, while taking covariates into account, and allows to assess whether the inter-organisational network had network redundancy—in the form of transitivity—by using a test which may be regarded as a Bayesian score test. We discuss implications in terms of disaster management.     

45钢动态摩擦中Kaiser效应的分析

摩擦过程中是否存在Kaiser效应对于应用声发射技术检测动态摩擦过程是一个非常重要和基础的问题。为此，进行了大量的实验研究，并对这些数据进行了整理和分析。结果表明：动态摩擦中不存在Kaiser效应。     

A formula for a missing plot in a general incomplete block design,when recovery of interblock information is used

In this paper, Yate's missing plot technique is used to derive the formula for substitution in a missing plot in a general incomplete block design, where blocks are assumed to be independent normal. The use of penalized normal equations, using BLUPS, makes this task simpler.     

Graphical methods for comparing confounding in two or more designs

In many circumstances it is necessary to design an experiment with partial confounding of parameter estimates. In this situation, one would like to have tools to assess and compare candidate designs graphically. In this paper we discuss two graphical representations of design properties, and illustrate their application with two examples.     

Optimum chemical balance weighing designs for estimating the total weight

This deals with chemical balance weighing designs which attain a lower bound for the variance of the estimated total weight, The results extend those of Chacko Dey (1978).