新时期“农转非”制度评析

1977年后,我国严格控制城市人口增长的"农转非"制度开始松动。随后,国家对"农转非"制度进行了适当调整,并不断出台新规定。这一系列"农转非"新政策虽然临时解决了一些社会老问题,但是也产生了不少社会新问题。新时期的"农转非"制度并没有从根本上推动户籍制度的改革,也没有建立起良性的户口迁移秩序。     

从生产大国到消费大国的传导机制——兼论美国经验

中国是世界第二大经济体、第一大制造大国,但还不是消费大国。理论研究表明,生产大国向消费大国的传导机制有五个:第一,生产扩大导致居民收入上升从而促进消费;第二,生产扩大通过降低消费品价格促进消费;第三,生产扩大导致市场主体预期乐观从而形成生产与消费的良性循环;第四,生产扩大促进信贷发展进而促进生产和消费的良性循环;第五,生产扩大增加居民闲暇时间从而增加消费。美国经验表明,增加收入、降低消费品价格、提高消费者预期、增加新产品供给和增加居民闲暇时间是促进消费的主要因素,维持高消费率的主要因素是财富效应、消费者预期乐观和消费信贷的发展。需要切实提高居民收入、提高生产效率、降低消费品价格、稳定居民预期以及完善金融服务,积极促进中国从生产大国向消费大国的转变。     

论作为宪法原则的政教分离原则——以日本、美国宪法为例

以日本、美国宪法为例,从价值、意义、内涵、要求以及原则的适用和宪法界限等方面对政教分离进行了论述。     

论巨额财产来源不明罪的法定刑

巨额财产来源不明罪的法定刑为5年有期徒刑,与贪污受贿罪的法定刑相差悬殊。这一罪名的法定刑太轻,有放纵那些腐败分子之嫌。应尽快提高巨额财产来源不明罪的法定刑,增加量刑档次。建议将最高刑期定为10年。     

《聊斋志异》梦创作类型及意蕴摭谈

《聊斋志异》梦创作千姿百态，寄寓深远，依照梦的内容可以分为预兆梦、思绪梦两大类。梦是人对现实的主观反映，它或者与现实形成强烈的反差，或者直接表现现实，基于梦幻的这个特性，《聊斋志异》梦创作的深层意蕴往往呈现出对理想追慕颂扬和对现实否定批评的两极指向。     

论南社中的湖南醴陵诗人

湘籍南社诗人以醴陵人为主,宁调元、傅熊湘以及醴陵三刘对南社的发展作有一定的贡献。他们的诗学与诗创作也取得较大成就。成立于上世纪20年代的南社湘集为保持传统诗文的地位,与新南社针锋相对,对过激的文学主张未尝不是一味清凉剂。     

古代维吾尔文献中的希腊语借词

文章结合希腊人在中亚活动的历史背景，通过查阅古代维吾尔文献，分析了这些文献中的bamuq，boz。didim，nom四个希腊语借词情况，提出这可能是当时东西方文化交流的一些重要佐证。     

《聊斋志异》的鬼故事类型分析

《聊斋志异》出现了大量鬼狐形象,这与中国原始信仰中的信鬼、崇鬼、祀鬼的民间文化渊源有关。这里仅对蒲松龄创造的永不磨灭的鬼魂艺术形象做以类型分析。     

佛经文学与六朝小说感应征验母题——以《观世音经》的盛行为考察中心

将一些神奇事件的发生归因于佛与众生的心有灵犀,这是佛教感应观的重要内容。这一观点与中土早已有之的感应学说相契合,在佛教大盛的六朝对士人产生了重要影响,其直接表现就是六朝小说中产生了感应征验母题,这一母题一般由民众陷入困厄,归心释氏乞求保佑解救,菩萨显灵使其脱离困厄三个环节构成,对后来的感应小说创作影响重大。     

Reliability Analysis Based on the Losses from Failures

The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the early-life failures region and the expected losses given failure characterizing the corresponding time intervals. For complex systems whose components are not logically arranged in series, discrete simulation algorithms and software have been created for determining the losses from failures in terms of expected lost production time, cost of intervention, and cost of replacement. Different system topologies are assessed to determine the effect of modifications of the system topology on the expected losses from failures. It is argued that the reliability allocation in a production system should be done to maximize the profit/value associated with the system. Consequently, a method for setting reliability requirements and reliability allocation maximizing the profit by minimizing the total cost has been developed. Reliability allocation that maximizes the profit in case of a system consisting of blocks arranged in series is achieved by determining for each block individually the reliabilities of the components in the block that minimize the sum of the capital, operation costs, and the expected losses from failures. A Monte Carlo simulation based net present value (NPV) cash-flow model has also been proposed, which has significant advantages to cash-flow models based on the expected value of the losses from failures per time interval. Unlike these models, the proposed model has the capability to reveal the variation of the NPV due to different number of failures occurring during a specified time interval (e.g., during one year). The model also permits tracking the impact of the distribution pattern of failure occurrences and the time dependence of the losses from failures.