Ridge regression estimators in the linear regression models with non-spherical errors

The present paper considers a family of ordinary ridge regression estimators in the linear regression model when the disturbances covariance matrix depends upon a few unknown parameters. An asymptotic expansion for the distribution of the ridge regression estimator is developed and under the quadratic loss function its asymptotic risk is compared with that of the feasible GLS estimator.     

Small-Sample Methods for Cluster-Robust Variance Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Fixed Effects Models

ABSTRACT

In panel data models and other regressions with unobserved effects, fixed effects estimation is often paired with cluster-robust variance estimation (CRVE) to account for heteroscedasticity and un-modeled dependence among the errors. Although asymptotically consistent, CRVE can be biased downward when the number of clusters is small, leading to hypothesis tests with rejection rates that are too high. More accurate tests can be constructed using bias-reduced linearization (BRL), which corrects the CRVE based on a working model, in conjunction with a Satterthwaite approximation for t-tests. We propose a generalization of BRL that can be applied in models with arbitrary sets of fixed effects, where the original BRL method is undefined, and describe how to apply the method when the regression is estimated after absorbing the fixed effects. We also propose a small-sample test for multiple-parameter hypotheses, which generalizes the Satterthwaite approximation for t-tests. In simulations covering a wide range of scenarios, we find that the conventional cluster-robust Wald test can severely over-reject while the proposed small-sample test maintains Type I error close to nominal levels. The proposed methods are implemented in an R package called clubSandwich. This article has online supplementary materials.     

Model Averaging for Prediction With Fragmentary Data

ABSTRACT

One main challenge for statistical prediction with data from multiple sources is that not all the associated covariate data are available for many sampled subjects. Consequently, we need new statistical methodology to handle this type of “fragmentary data” that has become more and more popular in recent years. In this article, we propose a novel method based on the frequentist model averaging that fits some candidate models using all available covariate data. The weights in model averaging are selected by delete-one cross-validation based on the data from complete cases. The optimality of the selected weights is rigorously proved under some conditions. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is confirmed by simulation studies. An example for personal income prediction based on real data from a leading e-community of wealth management in China is also presented for illustration.     

Repeated measurements designs - a review

Any experiment in which one or more of the experimental units is used more than once is called a repeated measurements experiment. The associated design of a repeated measurements experiment is referred to as a repeated measurements design. This review covers some known results on repeated measurements designs. Emphasis is placed on the impact of optimal design theory. Some construction methods for these designs are presented. Hedayat and Afsarinejad (1975) has an extensive bibliography of earlier literature. A bibliography of these designs published after 1974 is provided at the end of this paper.     

Considerations for optimal nonparametric regression under a generalizederror structure

Nonparametric smoothing, such as kernel or spline estimation, has been examined extensively under the assumption of uncorrelated errors. This paper addresses the effects of potential correlation on consistency and other asymptotic properties in a repeated-measures model, using directly optimized linear smoothers of the replicate means. Unrestricted optimal weights, with respect to squared error loss, are used to confirm a lack of consistency for all linear estimators in an autocorrelated errors model. The results indicate kernel methods that work well for an uncorrelated errors model may not have the ability to perform satisfactorily when correlation is introduced, due to an asymmetry in the optimal weights, which disappears for an uncorrelated errors model. These would include data-driven bandwidth selection methods, adjustments of the bandwidth to accommodate correlation, higher-order kernels, and related bias reduction techniques. The analytic results suggest alternative approaches, not considered here in detail, which have shown merit.     

Testing a censoring hypothesis through an identity test

Given two samples drawn from the same, unknown, population, it is assumed to be known that only one has possibly been censored and which one it is. A nonparametric procedure to test the no censoring null hypothesis against the alternative censoring hypothesis is discussed.     

人的可靠性与人为差错

分析论述了影响人的可靠性的因素 ,提出了提高人的可靠性、减少人为差错的措施和方法。     

检测系统分辨力定量计算的研究

分辨力是传感器和测量仪器的重要技术参数。数字仪器的分辨力通常取决于内部模数转换器的位数,但如何确定由仪器和传感器组成的检测系统的分辨力,目前尚未见到与之相关的专门性研究成果。该文论证了检测系统的分辨力只与随机误差相关,要提高分辨力就必须减小测量结果的随机波动。通过实验提出了检测系统分辨力的定量计算公式,并证明了其置信概率大于90.9%。     

复合免疫刺激物——大肠杆菌苗的研制及效力测定

采用对比试验方法 ,以小白鼠为实验动物 ,进行了复合免疫刺激物———大肠杆菌苗的研制及效力测定。结果表明 :试验组菌苗的保护率为 84 .6 2 % ,高于对照组、氢氧化铝胶苗组 5 3.85 %(P <0 .0 5 )、蜂胶佐剂苗组 5 8.33% (P <0 .0 5 )、空白对照组 38.4 6 % (P <0 .0 1) ;试验组小白鼠的增重率为 2 7.5 2 % ,高于对照组氢氧化铝胶苗组 2 2 .31% (P <0 .0 1)、蜂胶佐剂苗组 2 3.98% (P <0 .0 1)、空白对照组 17.2 2 % (P <0 .0 1) ;试验组免疫器官指数为 8.0 1% ,高于空白对照组 7.6 7% (P <0 .0 1)与铝胶苗组 7.96 % (P >0 .0 5 )。表明该复合免疫刺激物———大肠杆菌苗的免疫效力较好 ,复合免疫刺激物具有较强的免疫增强力 ,是一种较好的免疫佐剂。