Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state‐of‐the‐art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.     

Tail Behavior and Limit Distribution of Maximum of Logarithmic General Error Distribution

Logarithmic general error distribution, an extension of the log-normal distribution, is proposed. Some interesting properties of the log GED are derived. These properties are applied to establish the asymptotic behavior of the ratio of probability densities and the ratio of the tails of the logarithmic general error and log-normal distributions, and to derive the asymptotic distribution of the partial maximum of an independent and identically distributed sequence obeying the log GED.     

An algorithmic approach to construct D-optimal saturated designs for logistic model

In this paper, locally D-optimal saturated designs for a logistic model with one and two continuous input variables have been constructed by modifying the famous Fedorov exchange algorithm. A saturated design not only ensures the minimum number of runs in the design but also simplifies the row exchange computation. The basic idea is to exchange a design point with a point from the design space. The algorithm performs the best row exchange between design points and points form a candidate set representing the design space. Naturally, the resultant designs depend on the candidate set. For gain in precision, intuitively a candidate set with a larger number of points and the low discrepancy is desirable, but it increases the computational cost. Apart from the modification in row exchange computation, we propose implementing the algorithm in two stages. Initially, construct a design with a candidate set of affordable size and then later generate a new candidate set around the points of design searched in the former stage. In order to validate the optimality of constructed designs, we have used the general equivalence theorem. Algorithms for the construction of optimal designs have been implemented by developing suitable codes in R.     

外语课堂教学多模态语料库MCCT的创建

教育信息化2.0时代，利用多模态语料库语言学方法，通过语料库建设及其数据挖掘进行教学音视频流反思，已成为课堂教学和教师发展研究的重要手段。在遵循语料库建设基本原则基础上，聚焦“教师自身发展”专门用途外语课堂教学多模态语料库MCCT的创建，强调建库目的。与此同时，介绍建库过程，概述文字转写、语料切分与标注等具体做法，总结深加工后MCCT特点及其应用开发。目的是为高校教师利用多模态语料库方法进行教学、科研和自身发展提供理念思路、技术参考和典型样例。     

“三位一体”：高校课堂教学改革构建路径探析

推动课堂教学革命,打造“金课”是提高人才培养质量的关键之举。课堂教学改革,需要共同发挥学校、教师和学生三方积极性,通过构建“三位一体”的课堂教学改革联动机制,充分发挥学校在课堂教学改革中的保驾护航作用、教师的引领推动作用和学生的实施践行作用。     

开拓诗歌研究的新领域——读《魏晋南北朝乐府制度与歌诗研究》

长期以来歌诗被简单地当作诗歌,歌诗研究往往局限于纯文本研究,与之相关的配乐、配舞、表演者、观赏者、表演方式,以及受这些要素影响所形成的歌诗文本在语言艺术方面的诸多特点,被人为地忽略了。《魏晋南北朝乐府制度与歌诗研究》一书,从全新的视角出发,采用新的方法和思路,对这些相关问题进行了细致的探讨,不仅结论新颖稳妥,拓展了歌诗的研究领域,对于其它相关领域的研究工作,也有其独特的启发意义。     

高职高专院校音乐教育探讨

阐述了高职高专院校加强音乐教育的紧迫性和必要性,探讨了高职高专音乐教育的内容、音乐教育存在的问题及音乐教育实践的途径和措施。     

我国高校通识教育课程审议模式探析

从主体、内容及过程等层面对课程审议模式的内涵予以澄清,基于审议的方向和重心的视角,提出上构式课程审议和下构式课程审议两种模式。通过对国内大学通识教育课程实践的考察,将其归纳为下构式的审议模式,在对其基本特征与成效进行分析的基础上,尝试创建一种上构式的通识教育课程审议模式,并对不同阶段的审议内容和特征展开论证。     

“十七年”音乐创作与社会的互动研究

十七年音乐在新中国音乐发展史上属于“特例”,既非建国前的“十里洋场”,亦非文革时代的“高快硬响”。音乐创作对传统的“爱情”主题进行了重新阐释与定位,将其放置到革命或者建设社会主义的大语境下来论述,使爱情叙事打上了鲜明的政治烙印。但创作者并非完全听从政治指令的艺术木偶,他是以一种更为隐性的方式将创作的触角伸向少数民族题材的音乐,以此寻求“宏大叙事”与“个人情感”之间的平衡。创作出了明显区别于其他时代的爱情歌曲,具有特别的审美价值。     

中华民族传统音乐理性刍议

音乐是人类最古老的艺术形式之一,也是最具感染力的艺术形式。中华民族传统音乐侧重于个体性和生命性,注重感悟性和体验性,也注重在现实层面关注于对社会的教化作用,实际上是实用理性指导下的音乐。在社会主义文化建设背景下,努力发掘中华民族传统音乐理性的优良特质,对于当前社会主义文化建设有着积极的意义。