论《女神》作者的世界故乡情结

由现代社会物质生产和精神生产的"世界性"所决定,人们的乡土观念也"成为世界性的了"。郭沫若的代表诗集《女神》等,便是袒露"世界故乡情结"的佳构,其内涵主要包括:眷恋中国"第一故乡",热爱日本"第二故乡",讴歌世界"大同故乡"。这样的世界乡情诗,在加速改革开放、面向世界的今天,更有其强烈的借鉴意义。     

Point and confidence interval estimates for a global maximum via extreme value theory

The aim of this paper is to provide some practical aspects of point and interval estimates of the global maximum of a function using extreme value theory. Consider a real-valued function f:D→? defined on a bounded interval D such that f is either not known analytically or is known analytically but has rather a complicated analytic form. We assume that f possesses a global maximum attained, say, at u*∈D with maximal value x*=max _u  f(u)?f(u*). The problem of seeking the optimum of a function which is more or less unknown to the observer has resulted in the development of a large variety of search techniques. In this paper we use the extreme-value approach as appears in Dekkers et al. [A moment estimator for the index of an extreme-value distribution, Ann. Statist. 17 (1989), pp. 1833–1855] and de Haan [Estimation of the minimum of a function using order statistics, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 76 (1981), pp. 467–469]. We impose some Lipschitz conditions on the functions being investigated and through repeated simulation-based samplings, we provide various practical interpretations of the parameters involved as well as point and interval estimates for x*.     

南京国民政府十年期城市失业生成机制探

南京国民政府十年期，西方国家依仗着不平等条约所赋予的特权，以世界经济恐慌为契机，采取商品输出与资本输出等手段。向中国转嫁经济危机。处于弱势地位的华商企业及其产品难以抵挡外资企业与物美价廉。洋货”的冲击，于是大批工厂、商店、公司相继破产歇业，失业者充斥于大街小巷。加之西方国家掀起了排华运动，失业华侨纷纷回国，国内失业形势更加恶化。     

Work Design and Integration Glitches in Globally Distributed Technology Projects

In a technology project, project integration represents the pooling together of complete, interdependent task modules to form a physical product or software delivering a desired functionality. This study develops and tests a conceptual framework that examines the interrelationships between the elements of work design, project integration challenges, and project performance. We identify two distinct elements of work design in technology projects: (i) the type of project organization based on whether a technology project spans a firm boundary (Domestic‐Outsourcing) or a country boundary (Offshore‐Insourcing) or both boundaries (Offshore‐Outsourcing) or no boundaries (Domestic‐Insourcing), and (ii) the joint coordination practices among key stakeholders in a technology project—namely, Onsite Ratio and Joint‐Task Ownership. Next, we measure the effectiveness of project integration using integration glitches that capture the incompatibility among interdependent task modules during project integration. Based on analysis of data from 830 technology projects, the results highlight the differential effects of distributed project organizations on integration glitches. Specifically, we find that project organizations that span both firm and country boundaries (Offshore‐Outsourcing) experience significantly higher levels of integration glitches compared to domestic project organizations (Domestic‐Outsourcing and Domestic‐Insourcing). The results further indicate that the relationship between project organization type and integration glitches is moderated by the extent of joint coordination practices in a project. That is, managers can actively lower integration glitches by increasing the levels of onsite ratio and by promoting higher levels of joint‐task ownership, particularly in project organization types that span both firm and country boundaries (Offshore‐Outsourcing). Finally, the results demonstrate the practical significance of studying integration glitches by highlighting its significant negative effect on project performance.     

我国央行的信息披露度分析--基于全局博弈模型的数值模拟

利用一个改进的全局博弈模型,研究央行的信息披露问题,可以为信息披露政策的制定提供理论基础。通过求解博弈模型中信息波动与信息披露度的关系,结合我国的通胀预测信息特征,研究发现：只有在合作关系非常强,而私人信息精确度又较高时,货币当局才有理由使得信息不完全被披露;当信息不必完全公开时,合作关系越弱,则对私人信息精确度的要求也越高;在中国目前私人信息波动较大的前提下,我国央行仍有必要加大信息披露力度。     

共同但有区别责任：基于全球HWP碳库替代减排的责任分担

从“减排能力原则”的视角,依据全球20个代表性HWP生产国的经济发展水平和技术效率提升速率设置4个分析情景,使用GFPM模型模拟并评价2010—2030年全球HWP碳库变动和相应的责任分担。研究表明：①技术效率是提升全球HWP碳库水平的重要因素,发达国家若以既定于样本国平均进步速率提升自身技术效率,可以实现2．9×103 TgC的全球碳库增量。②发达国家HWP碳库替代减排的能力较强,应承担76％～97％的责任,发展中国家的减排分担仅需发达国家的11％～31％。③美国、瑞典、芬兰和德国是全球HWP碳库替代减排责任的主要承担国,中国技术效率优势明显,其HWP碳库的减排替代将在未来应对气候变化中具有重要的分担贡献。     

全球价值链驱动、知识转移与我国制造业升级

知识、信息在全球价值链中的加速流动有助于我国制造业通过接受国际领先企业的知识和技术转移来提高核心能力.基于国内外研究成果,从全球价值链驱动模式入手,对全球价值链下的知识转移进行了分析,认为不同价值链驱动模式下我国本土制造业通过嵌入全球价值链获取来自领先企业的知识存在差异,从而决定了其技术进步与升级路径的不同.     

Global sensitivity analysis with dependence measures

Global sensitivity analysis with variance-based measures suffers from several theoretical and practical limitations, since they focus only on the variance of the output and handle multivariate variables in a limited way. In this paper, we introduce a new class of sensitivity indices based on dependence measures which overcomes these insufficiencies. Our approach originates from the idea to compare the output distribution with its conditional counterpart when one of the input variables is fixed. We establish that this comparison yields previously proposed indices when it is performed with Csiszár f-divergences, as well as sensitivity indices which are well-known dependence measures between random variables. This leads us to investigate completely new sensitivity indices based on recent state-of-the-art dependence measures, such as distance correlation and the Hilbert–Schmidt independence criterion. We also emphasize the potential of feature selection techniques relying on such dependence measures as alternatives to screening in high dimension.     

美国对台湾问题的政策与美国全球安全战略

我国政府已将完成祖国统一大业确定为21世纪必须抓好的三大任务之一,而美国对台湾问题的干涉是我们完成祖国统一大业的最大障碍.研究美国未来介入台湾问题可能的深度和美国对台湾问题的政策走向,对于我们在完成祖国统一大业过程中确定科学的斗争策略具有重要的理论和现实意义.     

论周谷城世界通史编纂思想及实践与当代"整体史"观和"全球史"观的相关性

作者旨在通过对周谷城世界通史编纂思想和实践与当代“整体史”观和“全球史”观的相关性比较 ,发现其与当代世界通史编纂趋势既相合又相异的两面 ,其价值在于世界通史的编纂上所体现的整体史观念和反对欧洲中心论的立场 ,但同时又存在着对整体史认识上的一些局限性及其在反对欧洲中心论上表现出的不彻底性