民族传统体育专业课程体系研究

以《普通高等学校本科民族传统体育专业规范》为依据,提出了适合新世纪社会发展要求的民族传统体育专业培养目标,根据这一目标提出了构建民族传统体育专业课程体系的意见,目的是使教学内容实现系统化、科学化和特色化。     

密度分布非均匀的反馈控制Logistic单种群模型平衡态的稳定性

本文对种群密度在非均匀分布情形下,考虑了具反馈控制的滞后 Logistic 生态模型平衡位置的稳定性;分别给出了在常时滞和弱连续时滞以及强连续时滞情况下的稳定性条件;其结果是对 Gopalsamy 在密度均匀分布情形下相应结果的推广.     

Residual analysis for spatial point processes (with discussion)

Summary.  We define residuals for point process models fitted to spatial point pattern data, and we propose diagnostic plots based on them. The residuals apply to any point process model that has a conditional intensity; the model may exhibit spatial heterogeneity, interpoint interaction and dependence on spatial covariates. Some existing ad hoc methods for model checking (quadrat counts, scan statistic, kernel smoothed intensity and Berman's diagnostic) are recovered as special cases. Diagnostic tools are developed systematically, by using an analogy between our spatial residuals and the usual residuals for (non-spatial) generalized linear models. The conditional intensity λ plays the role of the mean response. This makes it possible to adapt existing knowledge about model validation for generalized linear models to the spatial point process context, giving recommendations for diagnostic plots. A plot of smoothed residuals against spatial location, or against a spatial covariate, is effective in diagnosing spatial trend or co-variate effects. Q – Q -plots of the residuals are effective in diagnosing interpoint interaction.     

An individual measure of relative survival

Summary.  Relative survival techniques are used to compare survival experience in a study cohort with that expected if background population rates apply. The techniques are especially useful when cause-specific death information is not accurate or not available as they provide a measure of excess mortality in a group of patients with a certain disease. Whereas these methods are based on group comparisons, we present here a transformation approach which instead gives for each individual an outcome measure relative to the appropriate background population. The new outcome measure is easily interpreted and can be analysed by using standard survival analysis techniques. It provides additional information on relative survival and gives new options in regression analysis. For example, one can estimate the proportion of patients who survived longer than a given percentile of the respective general population or compare survival experience of individuals while accounting for the population differences. The regression models for the new outcome measure are different from existing models, thus providing new possibilities in analysing relative survival data. One distinctive feature of our approach is that we adjust for expected survival before modelling. The paper is motivated by a study into the survival of patients after acute myocardial infarction.     

On Block Updating in Markov Random Field Models for Disease Mapping

Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models are commonly used to model spatial correlation in disease mapping applications. For Bayesian inference by MCMC, so far mainly single-site updating algorithms have been considered. However, convergence and mixing properties of such algorithms can be extremely poor due to strong dependencies of parameters in the posterior distribution. In this paper, we propose various block sampling algorithms in order to improve the MCMC performance. The methodology is rather general, allows for non-standard full conditionals, and can be applied in a modular fashion in a large number of different scenarios. For illustration we consider three different applications: two formulations for spatial modelling of a single disease (with and without additional unstructured parameters respectively), and one formulation for the joint analysis of two diseases. The results indicate that the largest benefits are obtained if parameters and the corresponding hyperparameter are updated jointly in one large block. Implementation of such block algorithms is relatively easy using methods for fast sampling of Gaussian Markov random fields ( Rue, 2001 ). By comparison, Monte Carlo estimates based on single-site updating can be rather misleading, even for very long runs. Our results may have wider relevance for efficient MCMC simulation in hierarchical models with Markov random field components.     

试论高校体育乒乓球教学中学习动机的培养

学习动机是学生学习的基本动力因素之一。该文通过对教学目标设置、创设激起内驱力的情境和积极进行反馈等方面进行分析 ,论述了高校体育乒乓球教学中培养学生良好的学习动机 ,对提高教学质量将起到积极的推动作用。     

论加快国际港城新城区建设步伐

根据北仑区域经济发展的现状,提出了加快建设现代化国际港口城市新城区的奋斗目标和四方面措施,并强调以改革的精神加强和改进党的建设.     

Nonparametric smoothing in the analysis of air pollution and respiratory illness

While most of epidemiology is observational, rather than experimental, the culture of epidemiology is still derived from agricultural experiments, rather than other observational fields, such as astronomy or economics. The mismatch is made greater as focus has turned to continue risk factors, multifactorial outcomes, and outcomes with large variation unexplainable by available risk factors. The analysis of such data is often viewed as hypothesis testing with statistical control replacing randomization. However, such approaches often test restricted forms of the hypothesis being investigated, such as the hypothesis of a linear association, when there is no prior empirical or theoretical reason to believe that if an association exists, it is linear. In combination with the large nonstochastic sources of error in such observational studies, this suggests the more flexible alternative of exploring the association. Conclusions on the possible causal nature of any discovered association will rest on the coherence and consistency of multiple studies. Nonparametric smoothing in general, and generalized additive models in particular, represent an attractive approach to such problems. This is illustrated using data examining the relationship between particulate air pollution and daily mortality in Birmingham, Alabama; between particulate air pollution, ozone, and SO₂ and daily hospital admissions for respiratory illness in Philadelphia; and between ozone and particulate air pollution and coughing episodes in children in six eastern U.S. cities. The results indicate that airborne particles and ozone are associated with adverse health outcomes at very low concentrations, and that there are likely no thresholds for these relationships.     

对建立我国现代大学制度的探讨

文章提出面向新世纪我国高等教育管理体制改革的目标模式是建立现代大学制度 ,分析了现代大学与现代大学制度的基本特征 ,提出现代大学制度的基本形式是大学法人制 ,并从大学法人治理原则和治理结构两方面探讨了现代大学制度的治理方式     

新形势下我国证券公司的发展战略

为适应当前国际金融创新发展、国际资本市场竞争激烈以及我国加入WTO的新形势,我国证券公司必须有与之相对应的发展战略,而有什么样的战略选择以及如何达到所选择的战略目标,则是刻不容缓的现实问题。