流动人口家庭化状况分析

家庭流动会在未来一个时期成为人口流动的主要形式,本文对流动人口家庭化的概念进行界定,利用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心2009年的调查数据对流动人口家庭化程度和区域差异从实证的角度进行了验证。研究发现,流动人口家庭化存在区域差异,部分流动人口家庭是通过在流入地生育孩子组成。针对流动人口家庭化给流入地和流出地带来的机遇和挑战要客观地看待。     

论黄庭坚对“西昆体”诗学思想的承继与超越

通过对杨亿和黄庭坚诗学观念的比较,可以清晰地看到,黄庭坚无论在诗学范型还是诗学理论上都继承了西昆诗派的遗风,并且在此基础上产生新变。在宋代诗歌发展进程中,黄庭坚对西昆体诗学理念的承与变正是宋型诗走向自立的标志。     

Dimensions of style: Context,politics and motivation in gay Israeli speech1

Sociolinguistic research has traditionally examined stylistic variation as a way of understanding how speakers may use language indexically. Quantitatively, research has sought to correlate observed patterns of variation across such external parameters as context or topic with the ways in which speakers linguistically orient themselves to their immediate surroundings or to some other socially‐salient reference group. Recently, this approach has been criticized for being too mechanistic. In this paper, I present a new method for examining stylistic variation that addresses this critique, and demonstrate how an attention to speakers' motivations and interactional goals can be reconciled with a quantitative analysis of variation. I illustrate the proposed method with a quantitative examination of systematic patterns of prosodic variation in the speech of a group of Israeli men who are all members of various lesbian and gay political‐activist groups.     

Variations and estimators for self-similarity parameter of sub-fractional Brownian motion via Malliavin calculus

Using multiple stochastic integrals and the Malliavin calculus, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the adjusted quadratic variation for a sub-fractional Brownian motion. We apply our results to construct strongly consistent statistical estimators for the self-similarity of sub-fractional Brownian motion.     

中国土地市场化水平地区差异分析

本文利用2003-2008年23个省(市、自治区)的数据、运用变异系数和泰尔指数分析土地市场化水平地区差异产生的原因,寻求促进区域土地市场发展的应对之策。研究结果表明,我国三大区域土地市场化水平存在极大的不平衡性,一级土地市场化水平省际间的差异越来越小,但农地非农化市场化水平省际间的差异却有所扩大。三大区域土地市场化水平的区域差异变化始终受区域内差异和区域间差异变化的共同影响,区域间差异对总体差异的贡献率小于区域内差异对总体差异的贡献率,对总体差异起决定性影响作用的是三大区域内部的差异。要提升我国土地市场化的水平,一要加大低市场化水平地区的土地制度改革力度,尤其是要加快西部土地市场化水平较低地区的改革步伐。二要强化农地非农化市场的建设,不断加大农地非农化市场化改革力度。     

关公形象在美国的变异

华裔作家为抵御身处海外所遭受的欺辱、寻找身份的认同,从中国传统文化中寻找精神寄托,根据需要,对关公形象进行了选择性接受与改造。这是关公形象在美国变异的开端。美国人对中国文化不甚了解,并对华人及华人文化存在偏见,再加上华裔作家对关公形象有意无意的误读,造成了美国人对关公形象的歪曲,最终在影片《我是布鲁斯》中臆造出一个妖魔化的关公形象。这是关公形象在美国的再度变异。     

The contribution of a history of heavy smoking to Scotland's mortality disadvantage

Scotland has a lower life expectancy than any country in Western Europe or North America, and this disadvantage is concentrated above age 50. According to the Human Mortality Database, life expectancy at age 50 has been lower in Scotland than in any other developed country since 1980. Relative to 15 developed countries that we have chosen for comparison, Scotland's life expectancy in 2009 at age 50 was lower by an average of 2.5?years for women and 1.6?years for men. We estimate that Scottish women lost 3.6?years of life expectancy at age 50 as a result of smoking, compared to 1.4?years for the comparison countries. The equivalent figures among men are 3.1 and 2.1?years. These differences are large enough for the history of heavy smoking in Scotland to account both for most of the shortfall in life expectancy for both sexes and for the country's unusually narrow sex differences in life expectancy.     

One-sided synthetic control charts for monitoring the multivariate coefficient of variation

Shewhart's type control charts for monitoring the Multivariate Coefficient of Variation (MCV) have recently been proposed in order to monitor the relative variability compared with the mean. These approaches are known to be rather slow in the detection of small or moderate process shifts. In this paper, in order to improve the detection efficiency, two one-sided Synthetic charts for the MCV are proposed. A Markov chain method is used to evaluate the statistical performance of the proposed charts. Furthermore, computational experiments reveal that the proposed control charts outperform the Shewhart MCV control chart in terms of the average run length to detect an out-of-control state. Finally, the implementation of the proposed chart is illustrated with an example using steel sleeves data.     

Exploring the Urban–Rural Incarceration Divide: Drivers of Local Jail Incarceration Rates in the United States

ABSTRACT

A large body of research has focused on understanding mass incarceration in the United States through the lens of federal and state prison growth. However, local jail systems, with 11 million admissions each year, have received less research attention despite their broad impact on communities. Preliminary analysis conducted by the Vera Institute of Justice (Vera) uncovered geographical disparities in county jail incarceration rates. Contrary to assumptions that incarceration is an urban phenomenon, Vera discovered that, in recent decades, pretrial jail rates have declined or remained flat in many urban areas, whereas rates have grown in rural counties. In an effort to uncover factors contributing to continued jail growth in rural areas, Vera joined forces with Two Sigma’s Data Clinic, a volunteer-based program that leverages Two Sigma employees’ data science expertise. Determinants of local jail rates from 2000–2013 were examined using a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model to account for correlations within counties over time. Results revealed that county-level poverty, police expenditures, and spillover effects from other county and state authorities are significant predictors of local jail rates. Investigation of model residuals revealed clusters of counties where observed rates were much higher than expected conditioned upon county variables.