科技创新与建设云南绿色经济强省

以生态经济为基础、知识经济为主导的绿色经济已成为新世纪全球经济发展的必然趋势。我们必须深刻认识这一变化,从实现可持续发展的战略高度出发,切实加强科技进步与创新,树立绿色观念、开发绿色资源、做大做强绿色产业,大力发展绿色经济,推进云南绿色经济强省建设。     

走向一种绿色意识形态

与价值观不同，意识形态既是规范性的又是描述性的，或者说，既是价值评估性的也是知识追求性的。事实与价值之间的关系，被传统地以“二分法”的方式加以构建，实际上二者是一种互补关系，但这也并不意味着对矛盾关系的否认。一种建立在摆脱教条主义的唯物主义基础上的绿色理论，更有利于开展一种行之有效的实践，而这或许是绿色运动可以从马克思主义那里继承的最为重要的遗产。如果生态主义要想成为一种有影响的意识形态，就必须发展一种“绿色实践观”，创建“理论-实践”的统一体，并借助包含着价值考量在内的“中介”来跨越二者之间的鸿沟。     

中国居民自有住房虚拟租金的一个估算

居民自有住房服务价值应纳入GDP核算,但各国对自有住房服务虚拟租金的估算方法存在差异,当前主要的核算方法为市场租金法和使用成本法。采用使用成本法对中国居民自有住房虚拟租金重新估算,发现2004—2012年间居民自有住房虚拟租金年均达3.2万亿元,最近三年年均达到4万亿。中国统计部门基于建筑成本估算的虚拟租金大大低估了居民居住支出,2004—2012年间年均低估达2.3万亿元,近三年年均低估达3万亿元。调整后的居住消费占GDP比重达到11%~14%,高于官方6%的统计数据,仅自有住房虚拟租金的重新调整就提高了4%~5%的居民消费率,随着居民收入提高,城市化进程加快,居住消费支出还将增长。     

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model

Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from cointegration and co-feature analysis

The paper investigates the causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Nigeria during the period 1980–2006. The results of our estimation show that real gross domestic product (rGDP) and electricity consumption (ele) are cointegrated and there is only unidirectional Granger causality running from electricity consumption (ele) to (rGDP). Then we applied Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter to decompose the trend and the fluctuation components of the rGDP and electricity consumption (ele) series. The estimation results show that there is cointegration between the trend and the cyclical components of the two series, which seems to suggest that the Granger causality is possibly related with the business cycle. The paper suggests that investing more and reducing inefficiency in the supply and use of electricity can further stimulate economic growth in Nigeria. The results should, however, be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of loss in power associated with the small sample size and the danger of omitted variable bias that could result from the use of bi-variate analysis.     

Efficacy of Risk-Based, Culturally Sensitive Ogaa (Walleye) Consumption Advice for Anishinaabe Tribal Members in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) has produced Ogaa (walleye— Sander vitreus ) consumption advisories since 1996 for Anishinaabe from GLIFWC member tribes in the 1837 and 1842 ceded territories of Wisconsin. GLIFWC's advisory maps were revised in 2005 to address cultural sensitivities (to protect tribal lifeways), to utilize recent mercury exposure information, and to incorporate changes in advisory levels for methyl mercury. Lake-specific, risk-based, culturally sensitive consumption advice was provided on color-coded maps for two groups: children under age 15 years and females of childbearing age, and males 15 years and older and females beyond childbearing age. The maps were distributed to, and a behavioral intervention program developed for, the six GLIFWC member tribes in Wisconsin as well as member tribes in Minnesota and the 1842 ceded territory of Michigan. Tribal fish harvesters, tribal health care providers, women of childbearing age or with young children, tribal leaders, elders, and children were targeted specifically for the behavioral intervention. The efficacy of the behavioral intervention was assessed using surveys of 275 tribal fish harvesters from Wisconsin, 139 tribal harvesters from Michigan and Minnesota, and 156 Wisconsin women of childbearing age. Significant increases in the percentage of survey participants who indicated awareness of advisory maps occurred among Wisconsin harvesters (increase from 60% to 77%), Michigan and Minnesota harvesters (29% to 51%), and women of childbearing age in Wisconsin (40% to 87%). A significant increase in preference for smaller Ogaa occurred among tribal harvesters in Wisconsin (41% to 72%) and tribal harvesters in Michigan and Minnesota (49% to 71%), although not among women of childbearing age. The GLIFWC map-based advisory program did not adversely affect tribal harvest of Ogaa, which increased from 63,000 to 88,000 fish in the three states after the intervention.     

基于生态文明观的中西消费文化比较与建设启示

生态文明关系到人类社会发展与资源环境的可持续发展,也是近年国家政策和攸关民生的焦点。从生态文明观的视角来分析中西消费文化的不同,目的就是要通过分析中西方消费思想的保守性和开放性、消费情智的感性与理性、消费对象的物质性与精神性和消费理念的对立性与统一性的区别,对我国的消费文化提出落实顶层设计、加强政府监管、重构企业文化、加强公众生态教育等方面的建设性意见。     

利率下降对我国居民跨期消费选择的影响分析

利率下降对居民跨期消费选择影响存在收入效应和替代效应.由于这两种效应对居民当期消费的作用方向完全相反,因而总效应要取决于这两种效应的强弱.对于我国中低收入居民来说,利率下降对其跨期消费选择的收入效应特别明显,替代效应则趋于零,因而降患反而会减少其当期消费数量.对于我国中高收入居民来说,利率下降对其跨期消费选择的替代效应在很大程度上被收入效应所抵消了,因而降息拉动其当期消费也不明显.为了刺激居民消费,除了实施降息政策以外,还必须采取其他政策与之配合.     

绿色设计的完全意义

作为一个能减少原生资源消耗和增加再生资源补充的有效手段、全力避免环境污染和生态破坏、维护人类社会安全生存与持续发展的宏观理念,绿色设计不仅应作用于某种产品的某个生产环节或技术层面,还应作用于产品从开发设计到废弃回收的整个生命周期;不仅局限在某些产品、行业、地区和时段,还应包括全社会乃至全人类所有的创造活动并成为人们永久性的思想共识和行为准则.     

城市生态绿化项目的政府投资方式改革——基于绿地建设与房产开发商的利益互动关系研究

通过对公共产品的内涵分析表明，仅由政府提供公共产品经常会出现不经济现象；只要解决外部性问题，公共产品是可以由私人提供的。以上海公共绿地为例，在分析目前公共绿地政府投资方式的基础上，研究绿地建设与房产开发商的利益互动关系，探讨城市绿地外部效应内部化的投资方式改革，提出房产与绿地联合开发建议，以期减轻政府建设城市绿地的资金压力，为实现城市公共绿地的最优投资提供理论上的依据。