A model of the Canadian global exchange rate: A test of the 1970s

This comment points out some methodological weaknesses in the Canadian global exchange rate model and the associated efficiency tests of Marwah and Bodkin. The model is found to be inadequate for policy analysis.     

The determinants of international creditworthiness and their policy implications

The present paper utilizes an empirical measure of creditworthiness based on bankers' perceptions to estimate the effect of various variables hypothesized to influence assessments of countries' debt-servicing capacity. The data pertain to a cross section of countries within the period 1979–1983. Such estimates necessarily employ a ceteris paribus assumption, which prevents a realistic assessment of the effects generated by policy changes. The second part of the paper develops, therefore, a dynamic simulation model of a hypothetical average economy. The simulations allow analysis of changes in macroeconomic variables and creditworthiness over time within a system that maintains accounting identities and behavioral constraints. Several changes in policy variables are considered that highlight the importance of export expansion. The latter is, of course, an often suggested policy objective, but the present paper demonstrates its effectiveness in terms of a somewhat nonstandard criterion.     

The linkage effects of raw material processing in economic development: A survey of modeling and other approaches

Processing of primary raw materials has become an important and widely recommended strategy for economic development. Yet, even as the councils of many LDCs call for primary commodity producers to gain greater participation in downstream activities, there remain doubts on fundamental questions:What comparative advantage and what disadvantages do processing activities have in the LDCs?What linkages do processing activities offer?What is the potential contribution of processing to economic goal attainment in the LDCs?In this article we survey the material on processing, particularly with respect to modeling direct and indirect linkages between processing and the LDC economies. The article examines the following topics: (1) the literature on processing in economic development; (2) modeling processing linkages; and (3) outstanding questions regarding processing linkages.We focus on quantifiable linkages between the processing industry and the rest of the economy. There is also the possibility of other linkages, such as the development of entrepreneurship and management talent and technology, that are more difficult to quantify. It is important to distinguish between micro linkages, which refer to the direct impact on supplier and user sectors, and macro linkages, which include indirect general economic effects transmitted through government revenue and expenditures, the money supply, and foreign exchange availabilities.     

The bureaucratic response to economic fluctuation: An econometric investigation of Hungarian investment policies

This paper develops bureaucratic response functions within a “deviation from trend” econometric model to determine those factors that were related to fluctuations in aggregate investment finding and in the sectoral distribution of that aggretate during 1960–1975. Investment in buildings and investment in machinery are analyzed separately. On the national level, investment funding is found to respond to indicators of well-being, plan targets, bottlenecks, and foreign trade variables. Sectoral investment funding is based mainly on priority considerations.     

Political confrontation over fiscal processes: The impact of the U.S. Congressional Budget Act

In July 1974 the U.S. Congressional Budget Act was signed into law. This legislation was the result of a heavily fought political confrontation between President Nixon and Congress over who controlled the Federal budget. In addition to the issue of control, the Act was prompted by dissatisfaction with the procedures used by Congress to determine Federal receipts and expenditures. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact this legislation had on the U.S. economy in its early years.The first section of the paper sets up a simple modeling framework. The model is specified so as to illustrate how a change in the budget process resulting from the Congressional Budget Act could potentially produce changes in the level of total output. This section also explains the derivation of a tax and expenditure series used in the model's empirical testing. The second section addresses some of the theoretical issues, and presents the results of simulations based on the Chase, Wharton, and Data Resources econometric models. Broad conclusions are gathered in the final section.     

浅议我国地方立法的完善

市场经济是法治经济。我国改革开放以后，市场经济的发展推动了地方立法的发展，我国地方立法权限的不断扩大正是市场经济发展的必然要求，如何适应市场经济对地方立法权限扩大的客观要求，完善地方立法是我国法治建设的关键问题。只有从传统的计划经济权力立法的观念中转变出来，树立市场经济权利立法的正确思路，认清中央与地方权力机关之间、地方权力机关与地方行政机关之间的权限划分性质，走放权与严格监督之路，才能真正完善我国地方立法。     

“梦”与“境遇”：《呐喊》、《彷徨》再解读（下）

鲁迅的文学观,确立于对民族、民众与知识者自我的生存境遇"三位一体"的体验之中,他确立了改变这三者生存困境的精神动力,这就是他的"梦",即焕发人本有的"天性"以"立人":一方面,鲁迅的"梦"与民族、民众的生存境遇又存在着巨大反差,他愈是要缩短自我与群体(民族、民众)之间的距离,就愈加感到这种距离的不可逾越,<彷徨>较之<呐喊>对民众生存困境的审视,消解"梦"与"境遇"的对立,在对"境遇"的表现中深化并强化了他在自我生存困境中孤独个体存在的体验;但另一方面,<彷徨>并非真正放弃了对与"境遇"对立性萌生的"梦"即对人的"天性"的追寻,这"天性"中不仅有"诚"与"爱",更有"憎"与"复仇",后者较之前者,同样为鲁迅的现实生存困境所逼发,更切近他思想性格的个性特征,显现了他的"梦"与"境遇"在对立中更深层次的联系.     

民间祠祀与李靖神化

唐代开国名将李靖因其丰功伟绩而为后继历朝列于国家祀典。然而,对李靖神化具有主导因素的却是民间广修祠庙并不断附之以异说。这种民间的祠祀加速了历史人物李靖向神祗的转化。     

经济法的社会整体利益论

经济法的基本价值是实现社会整体利益。这一价值取向是经济法的功能和目标所决定的。是克服市场失灵、民法失灵的要求;是追求公平的要求;是可持续发展的必然要求。为了实现经济法的社会整体利益,对政府失灵也要有所控制,因此,笔者提出要加强法制建设,转变政府职能,“限制政府”。     

论蒙元时代"乐府文学"的流衍及元人"乐府文学"观的建构

金亡至南宋灭亡(1234-1279)前的蒙元时代,就词曲嬗递过程的文学生态而言,“乐府文学”流衍的含义系指存在着一个“亦词亦曲”的阶段;其次则指在曲体体式形成、确立后,仍复有一个词曲并行而同被目为“乐府文学”的时期。词曲的合流为“乐府”而并行是一个自然的过程,而又因其所属音乐体系并非同一个,这种“并行”、“合流”也必然是阶段性的。元人广义的“乐府”观中是包含着那部分在蒙元特定时期仍然可歌的词体文学的,元人明确区分词曲的自觉意识乃萌生、形成于元代中后期。元人“乐府文学”观的建构的一个基本导向就是严雅俗之辨及其下的尊体意识,元人“乐府观”中的尊体意识最终结出的是“大元乐府”与唐诗、宋词有同等文学史地位的“鼎足论”。