青岛市人口迁移特征及其对经济增长的影响

改革开放以来青岛市一直保持着人口净迁入的态势,人口净迁移率不但很高,而且一直在快速递增.同时,通过实证分析可知,青岛市的人均产出与人口净迁移之间存在很高的正相关性,净迁移人口对经济增长具有显著的影响.据此可以判定:随着青岛市经济的高速持续增长,同时随着户籍制度改革的不断深化,可以预计在今后较长的一个时期内,青岛还会继续保持较高的人口净迁入,并由此对经济发展产生积极的促进作用.     

Analysis of microtubule dynamics using growth curve models

Microtubules are part of the structural network within a cell's cytoplasm, providing structural support as well as taking part in many of the cellular processes. A large body of data provide evidence that dynamics of microtubules in a cell is reponsible for the performance of many critical cellular functions such as cell division. In this article, we study the effect of four different isoforms of a protein tau on microtubule dynamics using growth curve models. The results show that a linear growth curve model is sufficient to explain the data. Moreover, we find that a mutated version of a 3-repeat tau protein has a similar effect as a 4-repeat tau protein on microtubule dynamics. The latter findings conform with the biological understanding of the effect of the protein tau on microtubule dynamics.     

我国消费、投资、净出口与经济增长

 消费、投资与出口通常并称为拉动经济增长的三驾马车,对经济增长产生重要作用。同时,经济增长也影响着它们的规模。针对这种情况,本文通过建立联立方程模型以及脉冲响应函数,对我国经济1978-2006年的历史数据进行实证分析,揭示我国改革开放以来它们之间的关系。     

缺失数据时两个对数正态分布的估计和检验

讨论了部分缺失数据两对敷正态分布的参数估计和关于总体相同的似然比检验.证明了估计的强相合性和渐近正态性,给出了似然比检验统计量的极限分布,并讨论基于精确分布的检验问题.     

江西高等教育对经济增长贡献率的估算及分析

随着知识经济的孕育和不断发展,高等教育将会越来越主导甚至决定社会经济的发展。采用经教育投入改进的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数定量测算江西区域高等教育对经济增长贡献率,能为正确处理高等教育发展与经济增长的关系提供重要参考依据。测算结果表明,江西高等教育对经济增长贡献率较低,因此必须加大高等教育投入,转变经济增长方式,使经济增长主要依靠提高劳动者的素质和人力资本的积累来实现。     

Declining inter-industry wage dispersion in the US

Industrial effects have long been significant factors in wage inequality. Previous research indicates that wage differentials across industries were increasing through the mid 1980s. Using more recent data, however, we find that the level of inter-industry wage dispersion declined by 36% from 1986 to 2002 despite the continued trend towards increasing inequality in the labor force. This decline in inter-industry wage dispersion is evident across gender and educational groups. Using multilevel growth curve models, our multivariate results indicate that the decline is only weakly related to industrial changes in education, occupation or even productivity despite the fact that the latter variable had been a critical factor in the prior period. Indicators of globalization and downsizing also do not appear to explain this decline. For the more recent period, the most important factors associated with the narrowing of inter-industry wage dispersion are reduced unionization rates and the higher proportion of casual workers. We interpret these results as suggesting that firms may now be less economically obliged to pass on a portion of their rents to broad groups of workers and may instead be engaged in more idiosyncratic processes of negotiation with individual workers based on micro-level sources of bargaining power.     

India’s Social Development in a Decade of Reforms: 1990–91/1999–2000

The economic reforms initiated in India in 1991 have brought about visible upliftment of economic conditions of the country. This paper examines if the economic process is associated with an enhancement of India’s social development in equal measure in the reform decade of nineties. Ray (1989) considered thirteen social indicators of India and constructed the country’s social development index (SDI) as a certain weighted average of the selected indicators, for the years between 1950–51 and 1975–76. The present work broadly follows Ray (1989) in tracking the social development in the decade of economic reforms from 1990–91 to 1999–2000. The movement of SDI in nineties has been compared with the movements of India’s per capita income and plan expenditure on the social sector. The results show that though there has been growth in the social sector, it is not by far quite encouraging and perhaps more needs to be done in the social sector. The views expressed in the article are those of the author and not of the institution he serves.     

The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per capita GDP

Given that savings behaviour and worker productivity have strong life-cycle components and given that demographic profiles vary across countries, population age structure should be linked to differences in levels of economic development. In this paper, we measure the economic importance of age structure variation for the global economy. We find that demographic maturation has been associated with nearly half of the evolution of global per capita GDP since 1960. We also find that age structure differences can account for just over half of the variation in worldwide per capita GDP (i.e. the lack of sigma convergence) observed since 1960.

养老保险现收现付制的挤出效应——一个内生生育率模型

文章在一个内生经济增长的OLG模型框架下研究现收现付制养老保险计划的挤出效应。具体考察公共养老金税率变动对家庭的消费与储蓄、生育选择以及经济增长的长期影响。结果表明,存在向上利他动机的情况下,挤出效应的大小取决于养老基金的规模,适度规模的公共养老金计划不会挤出私人储蓄。而有利于消费增加与经济增长;较大规模的公共养老金计划会对私人自愿储蓄与消费产生负面影响,并且对储蓄的挤出作用要大于对消费的挤出。人口老龄化进程在一定程度上缓解挤出效应,促进资本积累与经济增长。     

人口转变的经济增长效应研究新进展：一个综述

关于人口转变对于经济增长的效应研究由来已久,但是研究大多只考虑了人口数量和人口增长率对于经济增长的效应。近二十年来,许多经济学家在揭示“东亚奇迹”和中国经济腾飞等一系列经济现象的原因时。发现了人口年龄结构对于经济增长的重要贡献,并提出了“人口红利”的概念以解释经济发展。本文将具体介绍近二十年来理论界对于人口转变影响经济增长的相关机制的研究以及经验分析。并对这些研究的政策含义和有待深入研究的问题作出简要评述。