Takacs–Fiksel Method for Stationary Marked Gibbs Point Processes

Abstract. This article studies a method to estimate the parameters governing the distribution of a stationary marked Gibbs point process. This procedure, known as the Takacs–Fiksel method, is based on the estimation of the left and right hand sides of the Georgii–Nguyen–Zessin formula and leads to a family of estimators due to the possible choices of test functions. We propose several examples illustrating the interest and flexibility of this procedure. We also provide sufficient conditions based on the model and the test functions to derive asymptotic properties (consistency and asymptotic normality) of the resulting estimator. The different assumptions are discussed for exponential family models and for a large class of test functions. A short simulation study is proposed to assess the correctness of the methodology and the asymptotic results.     

On Estimating the Integrated Co-Volatility Using Noisy High-Frequency Data with Jumps

In this article, we consider the estimation of covariation of two asset prices which contain jumps and microstructure noise, based on high-frequency data. We propose a realized covariance estimator, which combines pre-averaging method to remove the microstructure noise and the threshold method to reduce the jumps effect. The asymptotic properties, such as consistency and asymptotic normality, are investigated. The estimator allows very general structure of jumps, for example, infinity activity or even infinity variation. Simulation is also included to illustrate the performance of the proposed procedure.     

知识产业化的内涵及重要意义

知识产业化是知识经济的必然产物。知识产业化是知识经济的核心层次 ,是知识经济的最佳模式 ,知识产业化与知识经济的实现是一体化过程。“新增长理论”为我们提供了理解知识产业化的新视点。正因为有这样的理论基础 ,知识产业化对中国才有着重大的现实意义     

优先发展教育是安徽经济长期增长的必然选择——基于安徽与全国统计数据的比较分析

本文利用1996年-2006年教育与经济统计数据分别构建了安徽与全国教育水平指数和人力资源水平指数,实证分析表明教育发展对人力资源水平和经济长期发展具有明显的促进作用,安徽教育发展相对不足,并成为制约安徽经济长期增长的重要因素,安徽经济社会的长远发展将主要取决于安徽教育的发展.     

Polyamory and Gay Men

Abstract

Some gay men practice polyamory, which results in the formation of stable, complex polyamorous families of choice. These relationships do not fit within the western heterosexual model of the family. They can be understood using concepts from the intergenerational or transgenerational approach to family systems, along with concepts from Enneagram, a personality topology. A polyamorous gay male family is described and future areas for research are discussed.     

基于国外名校网络公开课的外语通识教育设计

目前我国的外语通识教育由于师资力量、学生水平及课程内容的限制发展较为缓慢,而研究的视野又局限于改革传统教学模式,鲜有将之置于教育国际化的时代背景下来考虑。本文探讨如何以国外名校网络公开课资源为基础,教师和学生共建共享外语通识教育教学语料库,把英语语言、西方文化和多学科知识的学习相融合,培养用英语获取多学科基础知识、独立思考和流畅表达的能力,以达到师生共同成长的效果。     

技术创新及其在现代企业成长中的作用——基于山西新华化工有限责任公司的分析

创新是一个民族的灵魂,技术创新是现代企业的生命线,是企业成长的动力源泉.是企业之间的竞争主要表现在技术创新和人才两方面的竞争.现代企业要提升技术创新水平就必须加强政府、生产企业、学校及研发单位的互动合作,加大技术创新投入,提高创新收益水平;紧跟市场发展需求,准确把握市场定位,善于分析市场各种信息;提高企业职工整体素质,善于学习先进技术,吸收创新成果,配备和任用好各类人才.     

Econometric Analysis of Costing System Components in Rail Rate Regulation

In response to Congressional directive, the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) has created a railroad costing system that includes as key components ratios designed to estimate variable costs associated with freight transportation. The estimated variability ratios are used to determine freight surcharges, jurisdictional threshold rates, and basic rail rates in administrative law and federal court proceedings. In this article we assess the quality and reliability of the estimated variability ratios and their components against standards from economic theory and statistical theory and practice. Our work includes reproduction of the naive ICC regressions, updated naive regressions for the latest data set, estimation based on more secure econometric foundations, and sensitivity analyses comparing alternative estimation procedures. Fundamental questions arise concerning the scientific and evidentiary standards that are required for econometric methodology in policy making and regulatory activities.     

Calibrating predictive distributions

This paper concerns prediction from the frequentist point of view. The aim is to define a well-calibrated predictive distribution giving prediction intervals, and in particular prediction limits, with coverage probability equal or close to the target nominal value. This predictive distribution can be considered in a number of situations, including discrete data and non-regular cases, and it is founded on the idea of calibrating prediction limits to control the associated coverage probability. Whenever the computation of the proposed distribution is not feasible, this can be approximated using a suitable bootstrap simulation procedure or by considering high-order asymptotic expansions, giving predictive distributions already known in the literature. Examples and applications of the results to different contexts show the wide applicability and the very good performance of the proposed predictive distribution.     

共同富裕视角下和谐消费及其经济增长空间效应

从共同富裕视角深入剖析和谐消费的理论内涵，发现和谐消费包含消费力和谐、消费关系和谐以及和谐消费力与和谐消费关系的有机统一，其中，消费力和谐与消费关系和谐分别反映了共同富裕的效率与公平思想。为进一步明确中国和谐消费的发展状况及其经济增长效应，根据和谐消费的理论内涵，探索性地构建和谐消费力与和谐消费关系的指标体系，运用耦合协调度模型测算2007—2020年中国30个省份的和谐消费水平，并采用空间计量模型实证考察和谐消费的经济增长空间效应。实证结果表明：（1）从时间趋势来看，2007—2020年中国和谐消费水平呈波动上升态势，但整体而言，中国消费和谐度有待进一步提升；从空间分布来看，中国和谐消费水平呈现明显的“东高西低、沿海高内陆低”的空间分异格局。（2）和谐消费对经济增长具有显著的正向空间溢出效应，且在剔除异常值、增加控制变量与更换空间权重矩阵等一系列稳健性检验后结论依旧成立。（3）进一步检验发现，和谐消费能够通过优化产业结构牵引高质量供给，形成促进经济增长的供需联动机制。据此，建议以居民收入提高与社会保障完善为主线，促进消费力和谐；以居民收入差距缩小与社会信用体制健全为抓手，改善消费关系；协同推进需求侧管理与供给侧改革，以高水平供需动态平衡助力经济高质量发展。