我国税收超增长的因素分解——基于随机生产边界模型的实证研究

利用我国31个省区1997—2009年面板数据建立随机生产边界模型,运用K-L方法进行税收的全要素生产率增长分解,结果表明:我国税收征管效率连年大幅提高是税收超增长的主要原因,潜在税基的扩张(即前沿面的外移)是税收超增长的第二推动力量;而从规模效率上来看,税收增长表现出经济发展的规模效率和人力投入的规模无效率,总体贡献值在2000年以后常年为负。应提高税收征管技术效率,进一步发挥技术进步在税收增长中的作用;并精简机构,控制税务人员数量。     

Do developing economies require creative industries? Some old theory about new China

This paper argues that media and communications theory, as with cultural and creative industries analysis, can benefit from a deeper understanding of economic growth theory. Economic growth theory is elucidated in the context of both cultural and media studies and with respect to modern Chinese economic development. Economic growth is a complex evolutionary process that is tightly integrated with socio‐cultural and political processes. This paper seeks to explore this mechanism and to advance cultural theory from an erstwhile political‐economy perspective to one centred about the co‐evolutionary dynamics of economic and socio‐political systems. A generic model is presented in which economic and social systems co‐evolve through the origination, adoption and retention of new ideas, and in which the creative industries are a key part of this process. The paper concludes that digital media capabilities are a primary source of economic development.     

Deviation of order p for estimators of the variance in first-order stochastic differential equation (SDE)

In this work, we consider a non-parametric estimator of the variance in one-dimensional diffusion models or, more generally, in Itô processes with a deterministic diffusion term and a general non-anticipative drift. The estimation is based on the quadratic variation of discrete time observations over a finite interval. In particular, a central limit theorem (CLT) is proved for the deviation in L ^p norm (p≥; 1) between the variance and this estimator. The method of the proof consists in writing the L ^p norm of the deviation, when the drift term is equal to zero, as a sum of 4-dependent random variables. The moments are then computed by means of a Gaussian approximation and a CLT for m-dependent random variables is applied. The convergence is stable in law, this allows the result for processes with general drifts to be obtained, by using Girsanov's formula.     

从《一去永不回》看两性视野中女性成长的困境与突围

女性主义文学的成长是女性从被遮蔽、扭曲到发出自己的声音的一个不平凡的过程。池莉的《一去永不回》展示了一个平凡的女性从沉默到爆发,从不自觉走向半自觉的心路历程,以人物成长的外部语境和内心自我辨认来展示两性视野中女性成长的困境与突围,检视在社会环境和文化压力的重负下,女性意识究竟以何种面目生长和呈现。     

安徽省人口老龄化对经济增长的作用效应研究——基于改进的索洛模型

安徽省人口老龄化与社会经济发展水平相比具有明显的超前性.老龄化人口不仅数量大,增速快,而且其内部还存在差异.人口结构为典型的“未富先老”.老龄化与GDP有着负的效应关系:老龄化对经济产生抑制作用,经济学分析与实证分析的逻辑具有一致性.化解安徽省人口老龄化的根本途径在于优化经济结构,转变经济发展方式,可持续发展经济.同时,创新养老观,构建社会化养老服务体系,积极开发老年人市场.     

政府规模对经济增长影响效应的GMM评价--基于市级面板数据的实证分析

政府规模会对经济增长产生直接和间接影响,其过度膨胀是一个世界性的难题。为考察我国政府规模对经济增长的影响,基于市级面板数据,应用GMM方法对政府规模的经济增长效应进行动态评价,检验政府规模对经济增长的影响。结论表明：政府规模的扩张对经济增长产生显著负效应,为促进经济发展,必须缩减政府规模。     

Retracted Article: Growth attenuation and young people with profound disabilities – why we need to talk about Charley

In 2004 an intervention known as the Ashley Treatment (AT) was sought on behalf of Ashley X, a girl with severe developmental disabilities. A discursive interpretive framework is used to investigate use of the AT in the case of Charley Hooper in New Zealand in 2009. This investigation found that use of the AT is intimately bound up in ideas about worthiness of life related to the ability to act as an autonomous agent within social structures. Questions this case raises about ethical decision-making and future physical and social requirements for profoundly disabled young people in the future are posed.     

我国农民企业家能力成长关键阶段分析

农民企业家能力成长包括观念形成、经营管理能力成长、资金筹集、社会网络关系开拓、实战经验积累等几个关键阶段。其中市场经济观念的形成经历了奴性观念、小农观念、市民观念和市场经济主体观念等几个阶段的演变;经营管理能力最初来源于生活;资金筹集经历了由单独创业向合伙创业、由内部筹资向外部筹资转变的过程;社会网络开拓是一种建立弱关系、发展为强关系、又建立新的弱关系的良性循环;实战经验积累具有加速性。     

居民对我国经济增长质量主观感知的评价

居民的实际感知与经济增长的客观事实相背离,是经济增长质量的主要表现,实证研究发现,人均GDP、消费以及GDP增长率对经济增长质量主观感知的作用呈非线性关系。在控制居民个人特征以及区域特征以后,人均GDP对于经济增长质量感知的促进作用不显著,而消费增长的效应则是显著的。 GDP增长率对于经济增长质量的作用是先提升后下降的倒U型曲线关系。基于实证分析而得出的政策建议是：进一步提升消费对于经济增长的贡献率,将经济增长速度保持在合理区间,注重和加强改善民生尤其是提高居民的实际收入水平。     

对外援助与经济增长关系研究述评

国际援助既是外交行为,也是经济行为。在外交和政治目标之外,援助对一国经济增长的影响也是研究者关注的核心问题。学术界和政界曾一度迷信对外援助给经济增长所带来的直接正面影响。然而,现实中巨额的外援并未给第三世界受援对象带来期待中的可喜变化,学界开始反思,有一种倾向认为援助不仅未能给经济带来正向影响,反而有损经济增长。然而,这类结论有矫枉过正之嫌,此后越来越多的研究集中于考察援助未能有效促进增长的内外因素。这些探讨都试图找到对外援助与经济增长之间的普遍性联系,消弭了援助本身和受援对象的特殊性;在研讨援助与经济增长的关系时,都倾向于从受援对象方面来寻找原因和证据;现有的研究建立在传统援助的数据基础之上,忽视了来自发展中的新兴援助者的援助实践,而新兴援助者正给援助与经济增长提供越来越多正相关数据,有望推进该领域的进一步研究。