Rapid growth or stagnation: An economic policy choice

Why has the American economy performed so poorly in the past decade, especially in comparison with the two prior decades? This paper makes the theoretical and empirical case that a series of economic policy decisions provides the most satisfactory explanation and that policy reform will restore good economic performance. The paper also considers alternative explanations including the idea of a new secular stagnation unrelated to policy and the view that the deep financial crisis inevitably delayed recovery from the recession.     

1984—1988年中国农业增长滞缓探微

1978年开始试行的家庭联产承包责任制极大推动了中国农村经济的复苏和增长,但其在全国普及后,中国农业却陷入增长滞缓泥沼. 基于对河南省商城县一位老农民的采访,通过个案分析发现当时乡、村两级地方组织以提留统筹费名义向农民收取的不合理税款削弱了农民的劳作积极性,使得大量农村人口外流,从而导致1984—1988年间中国农业增长陷入滞缓境地. 此外,分析发现1987年农业增长的正向波动缘于科学技术运用的滞后效应. 1978—1988年间全国农业,特别是河南省农业的宏观数据又再次验证了提留统筹费对农业增长的消极影响和科学技术在运用过程中存在的滞后效应,由此建议将农业赋税制度作为农村经济改革的重要抓手,同时着力完善科学技术在农村的引入推广方式.     

“模仿创新”在企业成长中的作用探析——以腾讯为例

作为中国互联网即时聊天的先行者,腾讯通过其模仿-创新-赶超的策略取得了瞩目的成就。在对国内外学者研究模仿创新的基础上,通过对腾讯的商业模式及发展脉络的实证研究,认为在我国现阶段资源、技术、设备、信息尚不足以进行自主创新的基础上,模仿创新不失为一条快速提升企业发展能力的渠道我国转型时期企业做大做强的途径。     

从PPI变化看当前稳增长与化解过剩产能

我国经济稳增长必须把化解过剩产能作为一项重要任务,这既是减少经济波动的需要,也是转变经济发展方式,为新兴产业发展腾笼换鸟的必然要求。建议多管齐下,实行五大战略:坚持实施扩大内需战略,大力促进消费需求增长和稳步推进城市化;坚持实施"走出去"战略,积极拓展国际新兴市场和转移国内过剩生产能力;坚持实施产业创新升级战略,大力优化行业技术和产品结构;坚持实施淘汰落后产能战略,严格控制过剩行业产能扩张;坚持建立健全产业引导调控战略,促进产业有序竞争发展。     

The internalising and externalising problems of adolescents in Croatia: Socio‐demographic and family victimisation factors

This study assessed Croatian adolescents' problems in relation to socio‐demographic characteristics and experienced family violence in early and late adolescence. A national representative sample of 1,780 Croatian students (45.3% males) in two age groups representing early (M = 13.20; SD = 0.42) and late adolescence (M = 18.14; SD = 0.38) participated. The questionnaire included the Youth Self‐Report, modified version of ISPCAN Child Abuse Screening Tool – Children's Version, and socio‐demographic data. Results show that internalising problems were more present in female adolescents, in adolescents who perceived family financial hardship and in those whose biological parents did not live together. More externalising problems were reported in late adolescence by students who were living in large cities and whose families had either low, or above‐average, financial status. Adolescents who have experienced family violence were at higher risk of developing internalising and/or externalising problems.     

The Effects of Family Structure on African American Adolescents' Marijuana Use

The relationship between family structure and marijuana use throughout adolescence was assessed among 1,069 African Americans from the NLSY. A model was also tested suggesting that the effects of family structure on marijuana use would be mediated by poverty, neighborhood quality, and adolescents' self‐control. As most prior studies have found, family structure was not related to female adolescents' marijuana use. For young men, being raised with both biological parents was associated with less marijuana use throughout adolescence compared to those whose mothers never married, divorced early and never remarried, or divorced and remarried. Some support for the model was also found. We concluded that being raised without the presence of a biological father is a risk factor for marijuana use among young men, but African American young women from single‐parent households have unique resources that protect them from marijuana use. Understanding those resources may offer insight into prevention programs for other youth.     

需进一步控制我国人口增长的实证分析

谈进一步控制我国人口增长是缘于“五普”人口数据不准,算全面建设小康社会人口大账的考虑,以及用生产力标准衡量的结果。文章研究认为,进一步控制我国人口增长所牵涉的问题可以通过观念更新、措施更新解决。     

近代早期英国的人口增长与贫困问题

作为人类自身生产的人口增长具有物极必反的效应,近代早期英国的人口增长正是如此。本文立足近代早期英国人口增长的历史状况,试图对此时英国人口增长给英国社会带来的贫困问题予以解析。作者从人口增长量、人口结构和社会影响等方面分析英国人口的急剧增长给英国社会所带来的更多负面作用——贫困问题。籍此我们认识到无限制的人口增长之所以带来社会问题的原因和保持人口适度增长是社会和谐的关键这一历史规律。     

中国西北地区人口增长对土地退化的驱动作用分析

文章通过定性定量分析西北地区人口增长与粮食生产系统和土地压力响应之间的相关关系,发现人口的增长主要与耕地面积的扩展有较强相关性,与单位粮食亩产增加等变量指标的关系较弱。进一步分析发现,即便是在人口增长与耕地扩大的关系中,实际的耕地增长和粮食需求也远远大于实际人口增长的需求,由此可以看到在西北地区粮食生产和耕地面积扩大的过程中,人口增长并不如人们一般认为的那样大,人口增长对土地退化只能承担一部分责任,不构成最重要的原因。     

The need for family planning

The purpose of this paper is to examine the evidence on the need for family planning. The available evidence on current levels of unmet need for contraceptives, fertility preferences, and the non-contraceptive benefits of family planning is reviewed. I argue that expansion of family planning programs is still needed. These programs provide couples with tools to reach their desired family size; can significantly impact maternal and child mortality by decreasing fertility and optimizing child spacing; and by decreasing fertility, slow population growth. It is therefore imperative to continue to expand the provision of family planning services.