A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

“合理经济增长率”的消解——一个经济伦理的视角

经济增长极限的仍然存在，说明任何一具体的经济增长率都是通向极限的阶梯。代际关系上的经济增长率的合理性过份依赖于技术乐观主义，人与自然关系中的经济增长率的合理性只是形而上的玄想，代内关系的经济增长率的合理性只能衍生于单一的效率价值取向。这说明合理的经济增长率在经济伦理的应有视角里是虚幻的。人类必须在人口、科技、经济、政治和社会等制度结构方面建立起与可持续发展和生态文明相适应的经济伦理观。     

工程建设项目投资控制

论述投资控制的关键环节,提出投资控制工作的实施要点,阐明投资控制工作的必要性、可行性和重大意义.     

文化差异给英汉翻译带来的困难

翻译涉及到语言和文化。本文从五个方面阐述了不同的文化观念给翻译带来的困难,并以举例的方式提出了解决这些困难的方法。     

飞灰冲蚀条件下材料抗磨性能的试验研究

本文首先综述了国内外学者在研究塑性材料耐冲蚀磨损性能方面所取得的主要成果,并在专门建立的灰磨试验台上,对电站燃煤锅炉对流受热面常用材料20号钢、12Cr_1MoV合金铜以及铜、铝四种塑性材料进行了耐飞灰冲蚀磨损性能的试验研究。提出用材料的体积磨损率来定义材料的耐冲蚀磨损性能系数。并用它表征塑性材料的抗磨性能。该系数可直接应用于计算燃煤锅炉对流受热面的安全烟速。     

A modified random-effect procedure for combining risk difference in sets of 2×2 tables from clinical trials

Summary Meta-analyses of sets of clinical trials often combine risk differences from several 2×2 tables according to a random-effects model. The DerSimonian-Laird random-effects procedure, widely used for estimating the populaton mean risk difference, weights the risk difference from each primary study inversely proportional to an estimate of its variance (the sum of the between-study variance and the conditional within-study variance). Because those weights are not independent of the risk differences, however, the procedure sometimes exhibits bias and unnatural behavior. The present paper proposes a modified weighting scheme that uses the unconditional within-study variance to avoid this source of bias. The modified procedure has variance closer to that available from weighting by ideal weights when such weights are known. We studied the modified procedure in extensive simulation experiments using situations whose parameters resemble those of actual studies in medical research. For comparison we also included two unbiased procedures, the unweighted mean and a sample-size-weighted mean; their relative variability depends on the extent of heterogeneity among the primary studies. An example illustrates the application of the procedures to actual data and the differences among the results. This research was supported by Grant HS 05936 from the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research to Harvard University.     

坩埚热导率对晶体生长温度场的影响

本文通过有限元数值方法计算了坩埚热导率对晶体生长温度场的影响,指出当坩埚热导率大于晶体材料的热导率时,生长区域的纵向温梯会有大幅度减小,反之,温梯变化较小。并且认为当坩埚侧面与环境的热交换系数很大时,坩埚热导率的影响作用变小。并指出坩埚热导率可以通过热处理及其他手段予以调节。     

铝基化学镀镍的研究

研究了铝基化学镀镍的工艺过程，详细介绍了化学镀镍前的处理过程，其中包括除油，浸蚀，清洗和没锌过程。研究了各因素对化学镀镍镀速的影响因素，并得出最佳配方及工艺条件。在最佳条件下，化学镀镍镀速高，镀层着附力优异，可焊性优良。     

论高校“思想道德修养”课教学方法的创新——以德育课内容为主体，将音乐融入课堂教学

"思想道德修养"作为高校"两课"中的思想品德课,要提高它的教学实效,其中最重要的一个环节就是在教学方法上创新.文章从"思想道德修养"课教学的现状、音乐的辅德优势、将音乐融入"思想道德修养"课的具体方法与优势等方面探讨了提高"思想道德修养"课教学实效的新方法,即在坚持德育课主体内容的同时,以音乐为辅助手段,将德育课内容与音乐作品有机结合.这种教学方法可以在很大程度上提高教学质量.     

公司价值形成的反身性机制与中国上市公司的实证研究

该研究把人的非完全理性和市场非有效对公司经理人投融资行为的影响融入公司价值的形成过程,构建了公司的价值体系,分析了公司价值形成的反身性机制。用公司价值预期与公司真实的价值创造之间的关系来建立实证模型,检验公司市场价值与内在价值之间的相关性。以中国上市公司为样本进行了实证研究,发现公司价值创造效率与市场的价值预期之间存在显著的相关关系:首先,市场对上市公司的价值预期存在偏离,表现为高估低内在价值的公司和低估高内在价值的公司;其次,这种市场预期的偏差对上市公司的价值创造具有显著的影响,表现为阻碍公司价值的创造。实证结果证明了公司价值形成反身机制的存在性。