Risk–Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

To prevent catastrophic asteroid–Earth collisions, it has been proposed to use nuclear explosives to deflect away earthbound asteroids. However, this policy of nuclear deflection could inadvertently increase the risk of nuclear war and other violent conflict. This article conducts risk–risk tradeoff analysis to assess whether nuclear deflection results in a net increase or decrease in risk. Assuming nonnuclear deflection options are also used, nuclear deflection may only be needed for the largest and most imminent asteroid collisions. These are low‐frequency, high‐severity events. The effect of nuclear deflection on violent conflict risk is more ambiguous due to the complex and dynamic social factors at play. Indeed, it is not clear whether nuclear deflection would cause a net increase or decrease in violent conflict risk. Similarly, this article cannot reach a precise conclusion on the overall risk–risk tradeoff. The value of this article comes less from specific quantitative conclusions and more from providing an analytical framework and a better overall understanding of the policy decision. The article demonstrates the importance of integrated analysis of global risks and the policies to address them, as well as the challenge of quantitative evaluation of complex social processes such as violent conflict.     

铜铅与枪炮:清代矿业开发的军事意义

铜与铅不但是清代的主要币材,也是制造军火的主要原料,成为关乎军国大计的重要战略物资。但是,清代矿产的军事用途却往往被学界所忽视。清代是我国军事发展史上由传统向近代转型的重要时期,矿业的兴盛满足了军事工业发展对战略资源的需求,军队中火器装备比例的提高成为清军制胜的重要原因之一。本文将以铜铅为例,探讨清代矿业开发的军事意义。     

试论日军遗留化学武器问题

2003年齐齐哈尔“八·四”侵华日军遗留化学武器毒剂泄漏事件,使侵华日军遗留化学武器问题以及对日遗留化武诉讼再次成为人们关注的焦点。遗留化学武器的现实危害性及其广泛性、长期性使其不同于以往对日民间索赔案件。本文将从介绍侵华日军遗留在华化学武器问题入手,联系日军遗留在华化学武器伤害索赔案,探讨解决这一问题的途径。     

明清之际红夷大炮的威力概述

明清之际从西方引进的红夷大炮 ,是 16至 19世纪英制火炮或同类大炮的通称 ,其间流入荷兰和欧洲各国。因其威力强大 ,后又经不同途径传入中国 ,其技术特征和威力优于同时代中国的火炮。     

Risk Analysis of Chemical, Biological, or Radionuclear Threats: Implications for Food Security

If the food sector is attacked, the likely agents will be chemical, biological, or radionuclear (CBRN). We compiled a database of international terrorist/criminal activity involving such agents. Based on these data, we calculate the likelihood of a catastrophic event using extreme value methods. At the present, the probability of an event leading to 5,000 casualties (fatalities and injuries) is between 0.1 and 0.3. However, pronounced, nonstationary patterns within our data suggest that the "reoccurrence period" for such attacks is decreasing every year. Similarly, disturbing trends are evident in a broader data set, which is nonspecific as to the methods or means of attack. While at the present the likelihood of CBRN events is quite low, given an attack, the probability that it involves CBRN agents increases with the number of casualties. This is consistent with evidence of "heavy tails" in the distribution of casualties arising from CBRN events.     

Gendering a Warbot

Recently, the United States Defense Advanced Project Agency (DARPA) hosted its “Robotics Challenge.” The explicit goal of this challenge is to develop robots capable of “executing complex tasks in dangerous, degraded, human engineered environments.” However, the competitors’ choice to build humanoid robots tells a different narrative. In particular, through the physical design choices, the giving of names and the tasking of roles, the competing teams perpetuated a gendered narrative. This narrative in turn reifies gendered norms of warfighting, and ultimately leads to an accretion of gendered practices in militaries, politics and society, despite contemporary attempts at minimizing these practices through policies of inclusion. I argue that though much work on gender and technology exists, the autonomous humanoid robot – the one currently sought by DARPA – is something entirely new, and must be addressed on its own terms. In particular, this machine exceeds even Haraway's conception of the post-human cyborg, and rather than emancipating human beings from gender hierarchy, further reifies its practices. Masculine humanoid robots will be deemed ideal warfighters, while feminine humanoid robots will be tasked with research or humanitarian efforts, thereby reinstituting gendered roles.     

对网络安全问题的思考

因特网带来了新经济的起飞,全方位地改变着人们的政治、经济、文化和生活。然而,因特网的发展也受到了来自安全方面的挑战。针对不断出现的网络安全问题,着重从政治、法律、因特网自身等几个方面分析了产生网络安全问题的原因,并指出推进技术领先,健全法律、法规,加大政府支持力度,形成良好的社会道德规范是实现因特网健康发展、解决网络安全问题的关键。     

从网络推手到规范化的网络公关环境

近些年,网络推手由最初的存自然现象已经逐渐演变成一支雇佣水军的专业的企业,一些所谓的"网络营销推广"公司恶意诋毁竞争对手商业信誉,靠非正规渠道打造"草根明星"谋求商业利润。本研究剖析网络推手的特点,试从推手根源、舆论导向、整合资源、法律环境等几个方面阐述诚信网络公关环境的建立。     

校园网络安全初探

网络安全越来越受到人们的重视,本文从密码安全、系统安全、共享目录安全和木马防范方面,阐述了维护校园网络安全的具体措施。     

论新闻传播在信息战中的作用

新闻传播在战争中有着重要的作用,是夺取战争胜利的重要手段。在当今信息化的时代,战争和新闻传播技术都有了新的变化和发展,利用新闻传播进行心理战、舆论战更具威力,特别是计算机网络的出现,病毒、黑客武器的闪亮登场,更给新闻传播开辟了一个崭新的战场,战争演绎得更加精彩、激烈。重视研究新闻传播在信息化战争中的作用,组织实施有力的新闻传播手段,应对敌方的新闻传播战,对我们打赢信息化战争有着重要的意义。