中国古代人才测评思想初探

我国古代在长期的人才选拔实践中积累了丰富的经验,也形成了相关的理论和方法.中国古代人才测评思想包括人才的重要性、难知性、可测性和人才素质构成的多维性思想,人才测评的主要方法包括分类比较法、实践鉴别法、自然观察法、民意调查法、绩效考察法、实验试探法等,人才测评的主要技术有口试、面试、纸笔测试和作业测试等.     

幼儿教师心理健康现状分析

调查分析四川省幼儿教师的心理健康现状。采用分层随机抽样法抽取四川省幼儿教师1200名,用SCL-90量表与访谈法对其进行调查,以考察幼儿教师心理健康现状,结果发现:⑴四川省幼儿教师心理健康状况与全国常模比较,抑郁、焦虑两因子得分与全国常模无明显差异性,其它各因子均有显著性差异;⑵不同性质幼儿园的幼儿教师心理健康状况有显著性差异;⑶正式教师与招聘教师的心理健康状况有显著性差异。     

多层次社会资本与农村老年人健康状况

文章分析了农村老年人多层次社会资本内涵,将其划分为个体家庭结构型、个体家庭关系型和个体家庭认知型社会资本,村庄公共社会资本和村庄团体社会资本,通过OLS回归分析方法检验了多层次社会资本对农村地区老年人生理、心理健康状况的影响关系,在此基础上考察了多层次社会资本对东、中、西部省份农村老年人生理、心理健康的影响,并对全样本回归分析结果进行检验。结果表明:①多层次社会资本对农村老年人健康状况具有显著促进作用。②多层次社会资本对不同省域间农村老年人健康状况的影响存在显著差别。③村庄公共社会资本对农村老年人心理健康水平和东、西部省份农村老年人生理健康水平具有显著影响,村庄团体社会资本对中部省份农村老年人心理健康状况具有显著影响。     

“双循环”下攀西经济区康养旅游产业高质量发展路径研究

随着人口老龄化和消费结构的升级,人们更加注重身体健康。“旅游+康养”产业融合创新已成为新常态下经济高质量可持续发展的重要增长点。“双循环”发展格局下,作为全国康养旅游的发起者和倡导者,攀西经济区应通过健全协同发展机制、推动产业融合升级、完善软硬环境建设、构建营销推广体系,促进康养旅游产业高质量发展,助力推进经济转型升级,实现区域经济高质量可持续发展。     

The design of organizations and the right to act

Recent innovations in the structure of formal organizations suggest possible directions for the design of schools to bring about high achievement. The structure of output-driven in contrast to administratively-driven schools is described, and designs are described which address both the goal of high achievement and the goal of reduced inequality.An earlier version of this paper was presented as the author's Sorokin Lecture at the annual meeting of the Eastern Sociological Society, Boston, March 1993.     

Dietary and Inhalation Intake of Lead and Estimation of Blood Lead Levels in Adults and Children in Kanpur, India

This research was initiated to study lead levels in various food items in the city of Kanpur, India, to assess the dietary intake of lead and to estimate blood lead (PbB) levels, a biomarker of lead toxicity. For this purpose, sampling of food products, laboratory analysis, and computational exercises were undertaken. Specifically, six food groups (leafy vegetables, nonleafy vegetables, fruits, pulses, cereals, and milk), drinking water, and lead air concentration were considered for estimating lead intake. Results indicated highest lead content in leafy vegetables followed by pulses. Fruits showed low lead content and drinking water lead levels were always within tolerable limits. It was estimated that average daily lead intake through diet was about 114 microg/day for adults and 50 microg/day in children; tolerable limit is 250 microg/day for adults and 90 microg/day for children. The estimated lead intakes were translated into the resultant PbB concentrations for children and adults using a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. Monte Carlo simulation of PbB level variations for adults showed that probability of exceeding the tolerable limit of PbB (i.e.,10 microg/dL) was 0.062 for the pre-unleaded and 0.000328 for the post-unleaded gasoline period. The probability of exceeding tolerable limits in PbB level was reduced by a factor of 189 in the post-unleaded scenario. The study also suggested that in spite of the introduction of unleaded gasoline, children continue to be at a high risk (probability of exceeding 10 microg/dL = 0.39) because of a high intake of lead per unit body weight.     

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post-eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. Risks of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic risk analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision-making process. It provides a modeling framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing risk. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to risk analysis through hierarchical holographic modeling, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in risk assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade-off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision-making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying risk, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline model for assessing and managing risks of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency-the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)-and other related organizations can use for their decision-making processes.     

On the Effect of Probability Distributions of Input Variables in Public Health Risk Assessment

A central part of probabilistic public health risk assessment is the selection of probability distributions for the uncertain input variables. In this paper, we apply the first-order reliability method (FORM)^(1–3) as a probabilistic tool to assess the effect of probability distributions of the input random variables on the probability that risk exceeds a threshold level (termed the probability of failure) and on the relevant probabilistic sensitivities. The analysis was applied to a case study given by Thompson et al. ⁽⁴⁾ on cancer risk caused by the ingestion of benzene contaminated soil. Normal, lognormal, and uniform distributions were used in the analysis. The results show that the selection of a probability distribution function for the uncertain variables in this case study had a moderate impact on the probability that values would fall above a given threshold risk when the threshold risk is at the 50th percentile of the original distribution given by Thompson et al. ⁽⁴⁾ The impact was much greater when the threshold risk level was at the 95th percentile. The impact on uncertainty sensitivity, however, showed a reversed trend, where the impact was more appreciable for the 50th percentile of the original distribution of risk given by Thompson et al. ⁴ than for the 95th percentile. Nevertheless, the choice of distribution shape did not alter the order of probabilistic sensitivity of the basic uncertain variables.     

Perception of Ecological Risk to Water Environments

This paper examines lay and expert perceptions of the ecological risks associated with a range of human activities that could adversely affect water resource environments. It employs the psychometric paradigm pioneered in characterizing perceptions of human health risks, which involves surveys to obtain judgments from subjects about risk items in terms of several important characteristics of the risks. The paper builds on a previous study that introduced ecological risk perception. This second study employs a larger, more diverse sample, a more focused topic area, and comparisons between lay and expert judgments. The results confirm that a small set of underlying factors explain a great deal of variability in lay judgments about ecological risks. These have been termed Ecological Impact, Human Benefits, Controllability , and Knowledge. The results are useful in explaining subjects' judgments of the general riskiness of, and need for regulation of, various risk items. The results also indicate several differences and areas of agreement among the lay and expert samples that point to potential key issues in future ecological risk management efforts for water resources.     

ATSDR Science Panel on the Bioavailability of Mercury in Soils: Lessons Learned

On the basis of discussion and analysis during and following an ATSDR science panel on the bioavailability of mercury in soils, it is apparent that the default assumption of 100% relative bioavailability for mercury-contaminated soils is excessively conservative. However, current knowledge does not allow the development of default assumptions or guidelines for determining relative bioavailability of mercury in soils. Until such default assumptions or guidelines can be developed, site-specific assays of bioavailability, preferably using either animal bioassays or validated in vitro techniques, may provide the best approach for estimating soil-mercury bioavailability.