A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

现代教育技术对培养创新人才的作用

现代教育技术对创新人才的创新精神和创新能力两大核心要素的培养上,尤其是对创造性思维能力的培养具有无可比拟的独特作用。具有智能模拟功能的教育技术能够促进学习者对知识的自主建构,有力激发学习者的创造动机和创造灵感。协作式学习、多媒体课件以及教师指导的相互配合,能够促进学习者求异发散思维、直觉形象思维和抽象逻辑思维的整全发展,从而提升创新能力。     

浅评海德格尔的技术观

文章对海德格尔关于现代技术的根源、本质及技术与人类的历史命运的关系进行评价,指出了人类要全面审视技术,注意合理地运用技术,以克服技术给人类带来的消极后果,将技术的发展纳入人类稳定而长远发展的规程,从而掌握人类的命运.     

Dementia Problem Behavior and the Production of Informal Caregiving Services

Informal caregivers of individuals with Alzheimer's disease spend a considerable amount of time providing care. In this paper, we use Grossman's health production and Becker's time allocation models to develop a model of informal care provision to elderly dementia patients. In our model, time inputs produce caregiving services, which provides utility to the caregiver, but reduces leisure. We assume that time is less productive of services on the margin as the disease progresses. In this framework, an increase in patients' disease severity does not necessarily increase informal caregiver time input. The cost of formal care establishes a reservation price for informal caregiving. When the costs of informal caregiving rise above this reservation level, the patient is institutionalized. We test empirically the effect of deterioration in the patients' condition, proxied by both disease severity and dementia problem behavior, on informal caregiving time. We find that dementia-related problem behaviors and functional limitations significantly increase inputs of informal caregiving time. Patients' problem behavior exerts a modifying effect on functional limitations, and patients' comorbidities have no effect on informal caregiving time.     

从中国信息化实践看信息技术观的社会形成

中国信息化的技术实践中,不仅能够呈现出技术观的现代性特征,而且还能够反映出后现代特征。通过对中国信息技术观的技术理性和人文理性因素等分析,可以发现信息技术观的形成乃是一个复杂的、与社会相互作用过程的结果。围绕着信息技术发展和技术观的社会形成问题的讨论,具有多方面的社会意义。     

2001—2002赛季CBA与NBA技术统计的比较与分析

对 2 0 0 1— 2 0 0 2赛季CBA与NBA各项技术进行了统计比较与分析 ,建议CBA在应有的基础上继续努力 ,提高球员的身体素质和技术能力 .     

浅谈教育技术专业人员职业道德的构建与实施

随着教育形势的不断变化,教育技术专业人才在我国已经成为教育改革与发展的主力军,教育技术专业在我国起步较晚,在教师专业化不断向职业化过渡的今天,急需对该领域的人才构建合理的职业道德体系,本文从教育技术最新定义入手,详细论述了教育技术专业人员职业道德构建的条件和具体运作方法。     

政府绩效评估与企业绩效评估比较及借鉴意义

政府部门与企业同属社会公共组织,两者的绩效评估具有可比性。政府绩效评估和企业绩效评估可以相互借鉴:政府绩效评估可以借鉴企业绩效评估的评估技术、价值导向、评估方法;政府绩效评估可以引导企业绩效评估关注企业的社会责任。     

全力支持河套大学人才培养水平评估 构建巴彦淖尔完善的国民教育体系

10月份,教育部将组织专家组对河套大学进行人才培养工作水平评估,对河套大学而言,这既是机遇也是挑战。经过21年的发展,河套大学取得了可喜的成绩。通过这次评估,河套大学要理清思路、深化改革,认真整改,迈向新高。教育行政部门大力支持对河套大学人才培养水平评估,支持河套大学的发展。     

Effects of Medicaid managed care policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system

Children in the child welfare system are dependent upon Medicaid to finance services for their considerable mental health needs. This study examines the effects of Medicaid policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system. Data for this study came from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, the Caring for Children in Child Welfare study, and the Area Resource File. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate effects of policy variables on children's use of mental health services, controlling for child-level covariates and county-level health resources. Children in counties with behavioral carve-outs under Medicaid managed care had lower odds of inpatient mental health service use. Medicaid managed care enrollment and variations in type of provider reimbursement did not affect use of mental health services. Older age, greater need for mental health services, and higher levels of caregiver education were associated with increased odds of service use. Restrictions on use of inpatient mental healthcare caused by behavioral carve-outs may disproportionately affect children in the child welfare system who have high rates of such use. Careful adoption of carve-outs is necessary to assure appropriate care for these children.