Towards Enhancement of the Economy of a Thermal Power Generating System through Prediction of Plant Efficiency

The plant ‘Heat Rate’ (HR) is a measure of overall efficiency of a thermal power generating system. It depends on a large number of factors, some of which are non-measurable, while data relating to others are seldom available and recorded. However, coal quality (expressed in terms of ‘effective heat value’ (EHV) as kcal/kg) transpires to be one of the important factors that influences HR values and data on EHV are available in any thermal power generating system. In the present work, we propose a prediction interval of the HR values on the basis of only EHV, keeping in mind that coal quality is one of the important (but not the only) factors that have a pronounced effect on the combustion process and hence on HR. The underlying theory borrows the idea of providing simultaneous confidence interval (SCI) to the coefficients of a p-th p(≥1) order autoregressive model (AR(p)). The theory has been substantiated with the help of real life data from a power utility (after suitable base and scale transformation of the data to maintain the confidentiality of the classified document). Scope for formulating strategies to enhance the economy of a thermal power generating system has also been explored.     

Factors influencing Soay sheep survival

We present a survival analysis of Soay sheep mark recapture and recovery data. Unlike previous conditional analyses, it is not necessary to assume equality of recovery and recapture probabilities; instead these are estimated by maximum likelihood. Male and female sheep are treated separately, with the higher numbers and survival probabilities of the females resulting in a more complex model than that used for the males. In both cases, however, age and time aspects need to be included and there is a strong indication of a reduction in survival for sheep aged 7 years or more. Time variation in survival is related to the size of the population and selected weather variables, by using logistic regression. The size of the population significantly affects the survival probabilities of male and female lambs, and of female sheep aged 7 or more years. March rainfall and a measure of the North Atlantic oscillation are found to influence survival significantly for all age groups considered, for both males and females. Either of these weather variables can be used in a model. Several phenotypic and genotypic individual covariates are also fitted. The only covariate which is found to influence survival significantly is the type of horn of first-year female sheep. There is a substantial variation in the recovery probabilities over time, reflecting in part the increased effort when a population crash was expected. The goodness of fit of the model is checked by using graphical procedures.     

信用风险中回收率分布的双Beta模型

本文研究了随机回收率的分布,建立了回收率的双Beta分布密度模型,它具有双峰分布的特点,这与Moody公司的最新研究相吻合,弥补了现有回收率分布模型均为单峰的不足。利用基于数论网格的序贯优化算法对所建模型的参数做出了估计,借助于核密度估计的工具,进行了实证分析,结果表明双Beta模型的拟合误差很小,远小于Beta模型的误差,它是表示回收率理想的模型。最后给出了抽取双Beta分布随机数的方法。     

眼动追踪技术在现代物理教学中的应用——以竖直上抛运动为例

在物理教学情境下,探讨了眼动追踪技术这一源于神经解剖学的发展而产生的独特技术方法的应用价值,提出了运用作为物理教学新工具和新技术的眼动追踪技术开展物理教学的几种应用方向,重点阐述了眼动追踪技术是如何作为一种现代化可视工具诊断参与者不同思维方式的。此外,还着重解释了利用眼动追踪软件分析眼动追踪数据是如何作为一种研究方法应用在物理教学中的。     

论不定罪没收的程序构建

修正后的《刑事诉讼法》针对犯罪嫌疑人、被告人逃匿、死亡的案件,增设了不定罪而没收犯罪所得的特别程序,以此来落实有关国际条约规定的义务,加大反腐反恐的力度。不定罪没收程序的设计,主要源于《联合国反腐败公约》关于资产追回的规定。认真分析《联合国反腐败公约》的条款并借鉴他国立法实践,有利于不定罪没收程序的实践运行。     

国民经济恢复时期城乡关系的变化及影响

改变对立的城乡关系,减少城乡差别,是中国共产党成立以来一直奋斗并为之努力去实现的一个重要目标。国民经济恢复时期中国共产党采取了若干措施来缩小城乡差距,推动城乡关系的改变,主要有废除生产资料私有制和剥削制度,城乡居民政治权力的平等化,重视农业的基础性地位,以城市为中心领导和带动乡村发展,慎重处理城乡关系中最为突出的“剪刀差”问题,大力发展城乡文化教育等。在中共和各级政府的领导下,经过全民共同努力,一种新型的、与以前相较而言较为协调的城乡关系渐渐形成,在政治、经济、精神文化等方面出现了新的特点。在肯定国民经济恢复时期中国共产党为构建新型城乡关系所做的种种努力的同时,还需要看到这种努力所带来的变化存在的不足,以及所带来的长期负面影响,故不宜将其无限拔高,应作辩证的分析和客观的评价。     

印刷车间再热的热回收节能策略

针对夏季印刷车间空气处理过程中,由于控制室内温湿度波动而采取再热措施造成冷热抵消的能源浪费现象, 根据空气处理过程焓湿图分析了西安某印刷车间夏季空气处理产生再热的原因,并在对印刷产生有机废气采用局部排 风进行有效收集处理的基础上,针对性地提出了利用热回收以补偿再热负荷的思路。比较了几种常见热回收装置的特 点,根据对印刷有机废气催化处理后排放尾气的温度,选择了热管式显热回收方式,进而分析了其传热量及显热回收效 率的计算过程,突出了其节能优势,最终达到充分利用废热节能的目的。     

一类线性热方程初边值问题解的存在唯一性

本文研究线性热方程的初边值问题。在初值ｕ０（ｘ）∈Ｈ１０（Ω）的条件下，证明了问题的解在Ｃ（［０，Ｔ］；Ｈ１０（Ω））∩Ｗ１，２（０，Ｔ；Ｌ２（Ω））中存在且在更大的类Ｌ∞（０，Ｔ；Ｈ１０（Ω））∩Ｗ１，２（０，Ｔ；Ｌ２（Ω））中唯一。     

变离心力场中等截面冷却通道的流量计算和实验研究

本文用数值计算得到的数据集，回归出在变离心力场下，等截面管流由于热阻力引起的变密度流流量减少公式，并用热平衡法在旋转试验台上测量了加热条件下通道内的加热量和平均流速．由实验数据集回归出的流量减少公式与数值计算结果相符．     

日据至光复初期台湾博物馆管窥

日据至光复初期台湾的主要博物馆有4个,其中首推台湾总督博物馆,次为台中教育博物馆,台南教育博物馆,嘉义通俗博物馆。台湾总督博物馆,是台湾最早的博物馆,历史可追溯到1899年;1945年台湾光复,改称为台湾省博物馆。此外,当时台湾的部分院校和科研机构,亦设置有博物馆、植物园及小型的陈列馆或标本室。