近代湘西桐油贸易研究

湘西桐油贸易在中国历史上曾经获得了巨大发展，尤其是晚清至民国时期，其发展尤其引人注目。近代湘西桐油贸易可分为初步发展、短暂繁荣和衰落三个时期。本文就此三个时期展开论述，分析湘西桐油贸易发展的情况及其兴衰的原因。     

料场油管清洗及保护技术

料场油管露天堆放 ,在存放期间受大气影响易锈蚀 ,不仅影响油管质量 ,而且严重影响油管的使用性能 .本文研究一种新的涂保护剂及配方 ,介绍了油管保护新技术 ,其缓蚀率达到 96 %以上     

塔中奥陶系原油的运移方向研究

油气运移方向的确定对油气的进一步勘探具有重要意义。在分析前人资料的基础上，认为塔中隆起在加里东期至海西中期并非存在西北高、东南低的格局，而是总体上表现为东南高、西北低的特征；且塔中存在两个较高部位：一个位于塔中断垒带西段的中1井区附近；另一个为塔中的最高部位，位于塔中断垒带东段的塔中1井附近。油源对比表明，塔中奥陶系的原油大多来自中-上奥陶统的源岩。结合古构造背景的特征，对源自中-上奥陶统原油的充注方向研究表明，塔中北斜坡至少存在两个方向的油气运移：一为从塔中西北部向东南部的较高部位运移充注，二为从塔中西北部向中1井区附近的较高部位运移；塔中南斜坡塔中52井、中4井的油气来自塔中南侧的塘古巴斯凹陷，并经历了相对较短的运移距离，进一步证明了塘古巴斯凹陷中-上奥陶统的烃源岩具有较好的生油气潜力。     

低闭合油藏油水同层储层含水饱和度新模型

G地区P油层由于闭合高度低，油水分异差，存在大量的油水同层，且该区油水同层与油层的物性、电性相近，使得传统的利用电阻率和孔隙度计算含水饱和度的方法失效；加上工区开发过程中采取多层合试，单层试油且产液性质为油水同出的层位较少，可供选择进行油水同层饱和度建模的样本较少，使得该区油水同层饱和度的准确计算成为储量提交的难点。针对这一问题，提出以少量的密闭取芯井为基础样本，首先应用相渗资料建立起产水率与含水饱和度关系，然后外推到常规取芯井获得含水饱和度的补充样本，进而通过优选孔隙度、电阻率比值等建模参数，构建了适用于研究区油水同层的饱和度计算新模型，通过统计，其平均相对误差仅为3.59%，满足了储量计算的精度要求。     

审判经验的迷局与研判——从“案多人少”切入

2008年以来,江苏法院开展了大规模的总结审判经验专项活动。这是在案件数量剧增的态势下法院为化解案多人少的矛盾之为,但得到的经验相当一部分并非是有效提升办案效率的＂精品＂。从短期看,审判经验总结会适得其反,加大案多人少压力;但从长期来看,对于缓解案多人少压力会有所帮助。因此,审判经验有总结的价值,但在传承和发展审判经验时,对于个人经验和集体经验应当区别对待。     

Robust Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects modeling of time to positivity in tuberculosis trials

Early phase 2 tuberculosis (TB) trials are conducted to characterize the early bactericidal activity (EBA) of anti‐TB drugs. The EBA of anti‐TB drugs has conventionally been calculated as the rate of decline in colony forming unit (CFU) count during the first 14 days of treatment. The measurement of CFU count, however, is expensive and prone to contamination. Alternatively to CFU count, time to positivity (TTP), which is a potential biomarker for long‐term efficacy of anti‐TB drugs, can be used to characterize EBA. The current Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects (NLME) regression model for TTP data, however, lacks robustness to gross outliers that often are present in the data. The conventional way of handling such outliers involves their identification by visual inspection and subsequent exclusion from the analysis. However, this process can be questioned because of its subjective nature. For this reason, we fitted robust versions of the Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects regression model to a wide range of TTP datasets. The performance of the explored models was assessed through model comparison statistics and a simulation study. We conclude that fitting a robust model to TTP data obviates the need for explicit identification and subsequent “deletion” of outliers but ensures that gross outliers exert no undue influence on model fits. We recommend that the current practice of fitting conventional normal theory models be abandoned in favor of fitting robust models to TTP data.     

Simultaneous sparse model selection and coefficient estimation for heavy-tailed autoregressive processes

We propose a sparse coefficient estimation and automated model selection procedure for autoregressive processes with heavy-tailed innovations based on penalized conditional maximum likelihood. Under mild moment conditions on the innovation processes, the penalized conditional maximum likelihood estimator satisfies a strong consistency, O_P(N^?1/2) consistency, and the oracle properties, where N is the sample size. We have the freedom in choosing penalty functions based on the weak conditions on them. Two penalty functions, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and smoothly clipped average deviation, are compared. The proposed method provides a distribution-based penalized inference to AR models, which is especially useful when the other estimation methods fail or under perform for AR processes with heavy-tailed innovations [Feigin, Resnick. Pitfalls of fitting autoregressive models for heavy-tailed time series. Extremes. 1999;1:391–422]. A simulation study confirms our theoretical results. At the end, we apply our method to a historical price data of the US Industrial Production Index for consumer goods, and obtain very promising results.     

Analyzing time–frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets

This study analyzed the time–frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate for Pakistan by using measures of continuous wavelet such as wavelet power, cross-wavelet power, and cross-wavelet coherency (WTC). The results of cross-wavelet analysis indicated that covariance between oil price and exchange rate is unable to give clear-cut results, but both variables have been in phase and out phase (i.e. they are anti-cyclical and cyclical in nature) in some or other durations. However, results of squared wavelet coherence disclose that both variables are out of phase and real exchange rate was leading during the entire period studied, corresponding to the 10–15 months’ scale. These results are the unique contribution of the present study, which would have not been drawn if one would have utilized any other time series or frequency domain-based approach. This finding provides evidence of anti-cyclical relationship between oil price and real effective exchange rate; however, in most of the period studied, real exchange rate was leading and passing anti-cycle effects on oil price shocks which is the major contribution of the study.     

The role of perceptions of partner's alcohol use in heavy alcohol use and alcohol reduction intervention preferences among LGBQ adults in primary,romantic relationships

Correlates of heavy episodic alcohol and alcohol reduction intervention preferences were examined among lesbian, gay, bisexual, and queer (LGBQ) adults in romantic relationships. Anonymous data were collected online; analyses included logistic and multinomial regression models. One-fourth of participants reported recent heavy episodic alcohol use. Perceptions of partners' engaging in heavy alcohol use was associated with an increased odds of engaging in heavy alcohol use. Perceptions of partners' heavy alcohol use was associated with an increased odds of preferring a couples-based alcohol intervention compared to preferring no intervention. Findings highlight the need to consider partners in alcohol interventions for LGBQ couples.     

Lessons from Nigeria for improved thinking and working politically in the extractives sector

Despite the wealth that comes from being the biggest oil producer in Africa, Nigeria has some of the worst development indicators in the world. From 2011 to mid‐2016, the DFID‐funded Facility for Oil Sector Transparency and Reform (FOSTER) programme's unique design aimed to reduce incentives for the capture of oil revenue by elites and international oil companies, restoring the potential of those revenues to accelerate economic and social development. This article asks what lessons FOSTER's successes and failures offer for improved “thinking and working politically” (TWP). It examines the outcomes from five “clusters” of interventions: three viewed by the FOSTER team as successes and two as failures. The article identifies factors for successful TWP‐based programming, including the need for local ownership rooted in staff with a combination of technical expertise, a deep knowledge of the local political context and excellent networking abilities. The research used a qualitative and inductive approach. Field research was undertaken with 44 semi‐structured qualitative interviews during one month of fieldwork in Abuja and Lagos. The research also included reviews of FOSTER's internal documentation and evaluation frameworks, as well as analysis of newspaper articles and grey literature on the oil sector in Nigeria. The project offers important lessons for politically informed programming about how interventions were implemented (process), what was actually done (content) and how the project responded to changes in context that created or blocked opportunities for reform (responsiveness). The article identifies factors for successful TWP‐based programming, including the need for local ownership rooted in staff with a combination of technical expertise, a deep knowledge of the local political context and excellent networking abilities. The findings have important implications for programme design. They demonstrate the value of built‐in flexibility that allows staff to choose and switch the partners they work with and the channels they work through. They also show that a key aspect of TWP‐based programming is implicit acceptance that some failure may be unavoidable, since this permits staff to balance risk against opportunities. Finally, a better understanding of FOSTER's failures reveals the challenges of a TWP‐based approach and the trade‐offs it demands.