Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame‐shifting “lame excuses” for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning—especially from near‐misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk‐reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management.     

DS18B20在油气井场温度监控系统中的应用

油气井场温度监控系统属于井场重要的安全保护装置,此系统用单片机+串行智能传感器来组成,广泛使用了串行芯片。介绍了系统硬件流程图,以及温度传感器芯片DS18B20的工作流程,详细说明了获取温度传感器序列号的ROM操作命令、存储器操作命令。     

深圳市海外高层次人才引进对三亚市的借鉴与启示

当今人才作为第一资源是各国家与地区之间争夺的对象，如何引进、使用和留住人才对国家和地区的经济发展具有重要意义。深圳市是全国改革开放的先锋军，在海外高层次人才引进方面走在全国前列。对深圳市海外高层次人才引进特色和优势分析，可为三亚市海外高层次人才的引进提供借鉴和启示意义，以促进三亚市发挥自身优势，吸引优势人才资源，为建设海南省国际旅游岛做出一份贡献。     

摩天时代背景下当代城市建设的反思

摩天大楼成为近年来中国城市建设的重要特征。摩天大楼时代到来的同时，也带来了高楼建筑的社会问题，如安全问题、能原消耗问题、投资风险等。欧洲城市在建造高楼方面，保持了克制与理智的态度，欧洲国家纷纷制定各种法令限制摩天大楼的建设。作为河北省省会城市，2008年开始的“三年大变样”，使石家庄的城市建设步入摩天时代。2012年，石家庄市城乡规划局出台了《石家庄市城市风貌特色管理暂行规定》，石家庄将加强城市风貌特色管理，提高城市品位。人与高楼的和谐共融才是城市建筑存在的重要意义，如此，高楼大厦才会有灵魂，城市才会有未     

Lung Cancer Risk from Radon in Marcellus Shale Gas in Northeast U.S. Homes

The amount of radon in natural gas varies with its source. Little has been published about the radon from shale gas to date, making estimates of its impact on radon‐induced lung cancer speculative. We measured radon in natural gas pipelines carrying gas from the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Radon concentrations ranged from 1,520 to 2,750 Bq/m³ (41–74 pCi/L), and the throughput‐weighted average was 1,983 Bq/m³ (54 pCi/L). Potential radon exposure due to the use of Marcellus Shale gas for cooking and space heating using vent‐free heaters or gas ranges in northeastern U.S. homes and apartments was assessed. Though the measured radon concentrations are higher than what has been previously reported, it is unlikely that exposure from natural gas cooking would exceed 1.2 Bq/m³ (<1% of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's action level). Using worst‐case assumptions, we estimate the excess lifetime (70 years) lung cancer risk associated with cooking to be 1.8×10^?4 (interval spanning 95% of simulation results: 8.5×10^?5, 3.4×10^?4). The risk profile for supplemental heating with unvented gas appliances is similar. Individuals using unvented gas appliances to provide primary heating may face lifetime risks as high as 3.9×10^?3. Under current housing stock and gas consumption assumptions, expected levels of residential radon exposure due to unvented combustion of Marcellus Shale natural gas in the Northeast United States do not result in a detectable change in the lung cancer death rates.     

高新企业并购中的人力资源整合管理

在产业升级、结构调整以及经济一体化等因素的推动下,我国高新技术企业的并购规模和数量一直呈现不断上升趋势,并购的地域范围不再限于国内,全球范围的并购案例也迅速增长。越来越多的高新技术企业寻求通过并购方式来提高企业核心竞争能力,谋求企业的可持续发展。然而,并非所有的并购都能成功。     

空气雾化钻井试验架研制剖析

解决空气雾化钻井井眼净化问题,试验架是关键装置、基础设备和必要手段。对空气雾化钻井试验架的研制过程进行了深入剖析,介绍了在试验架研制中应遵循的一些基本原则,试验架基本结构,试验架主要参数,试验结果可靠性分析,试验研究进行情况,以及研制过程中的经验教训等内容,体现了空气雾化钻井试验架研制工作的特点与特色。     

Modified chain sampling plans for lot inspection by variables and attributes

The purpose of acceptance sampling is to develop decision rules to accept or reject production lots based on sample data. When testing is destructive or expensive, dependent sampling procedures cumulate results from several preceding lots. This chaining of past lot results reduces the required size of the samples. A large part of these procedures only chain past lot results when defects are found in the current sample. However, such selective use of past lot results only achieves a limited reduction of sample sizes. In this article, a modified approach for chaining past lot results is proposed that is less selective in its use of quality history and, as a result, requires a smaller sample size than the one required for commonly used dependent sampling procedures, such as multiple dependent sampling plans and chain sampling plans of Dodge. The proposed plans are applicable for inspection by attributes and inspection by variables. Several properties of their operating characteristic-curves are derived, and search procedures are given to select such modified chain sampling plans by using the two-point method.     

日本新订高中历史课程之特点与启示

2018年3月,日本发布新的《高等学校学习指导要领》。这是日本自第二次世界大战后70多年来,对高中课程最大规模的一次修订,体现了日本高中教育发展的新趋势,标志着日本从此告别“宽松教育”而走向“生存能力”教育。由“历史综合”“日本史探究”“世界史探究”组成的新高中历史课程,立足“人”的发展,构建了“必修+选修、通史+专题”的课程体系,课程内容更加突出本国史与世界史的联系,课程学习倡导“主题+探究”的学习方式。日本高中历史课程的内容设置及特点启示我们,高中历史课程编制应加强中国史与世界史的横向关联,课程内容应体现探究性学习要求。     

Transition probabilities and ARL performance of Six Sigma zone control charts

In this article, Six Sigma zone control charts (SSZCCs) are proposed for world class organizations. The transition probabilities are obtained using the Markov chain approach. The Average Run Length (ARL) values are then presented. The ARL performance of the proposed SSZCCs and the standard Six Sigma control chart (SSCC) without zones or run rules is studied. The ARL performance of these charts is then compared with those of the other standard zone control charts (ZCCs), the modified ZCC and the traditional Shewhart control chart (SCC) with common run rules. As expected, it is shown that the proposed SSZCC outperforms the standard SSCC without zones or run rules for process shifts of any magnitude. When compared to the other standard ZCCs and the Shewhart chart with common run rules, it is observed that the proposed SSZCCs have much higher false alarm rates for smaller shifts and hence they prevent unwanted process disturbances. The application of the proposed SSZCC is illustrated using a real time example.