Two preprocessing algorithms for climate time series

We propose two preprocessing algorithms suitable for climate time series. The first algorithm detects outliers based on an autoregressive cost update mechanism. The second one is based on the wavelet transform, a method from pattern recognition. In order to benchmark the algorithms'' performance we compare them to existing methods based on a synthetic data set. Eventually, for exemplary purposes, the proposed methods are applied to a data set of high-frequent temperature measurements from Novi Sad, Serbia. The results show that both methods together form a powerful tool for signal preprocessing: In case of solitary outliers the autoregressive cost update mechanism prevails, whereas the wavelet-based mechanism is the method of choice in the presence of multiple consecutive outliers.     

成人高等教育概念的诠释

文章从方法论的角度对国内四种有代表性的成人高等教育概念表述进行了分析,认为成人高等教育是指对符合规定标准的在业或非在业成年人实施的属于高等教育水平的教育,它具有对象的成人性和性质的高等性两大本质属性,其外延可分别从办学渠道、教育对象、层次规格和办学形式等不同角度进行划分。在此基础上,文章还对与成人高等教育相似相近的几个概念进行了辨析,阐明了成人高等教育与终身教育是被包含关系,与继续教育是包含关系,而与高等职业教育是交叉关系。     

党的先进性建设与社会主义办学方向

高等院校党员先进性教育,要围绕“坚定社会主义办学方向”。如何把握社会主义办学方向?一是要进一步巩固马克思主义在高校的指导地位;二是高校的党政领导要成为社会主义政治家、教育家。     

新泽西州高质量阿博特学前教育项目及其政策启示

在追求公平与质量的学前教育时代背景下,推动大型公共学前教育项目以保障弱势儿童群体的受教育权是政府的应尽责任和重要任务。当前我国公共学前教育项目正处于起步阶段,可多方借鉴有效学前教育项目的国际经验。本研究以新泽西州阿博特学前教育项目（Abbott Preschool Program）这一被公认为高效能的项目为对象,重点探讨了该项目在政策保障与政府执行、财政投入与供给模式、多层质量标准体系、高标准教师队伍以及监测系统构建等方面的核心举措,总结了该项目的中短期成效和问题反思,并结合当前我国学前教育项目的实施现状,从支持保障系统、质量提升系统、项目设计核心要素等方面提出了相应政策建议。     

初中生坚毅品质对学习投入的影响：未来时间洞察力的中介作用

目的：探讨初中生坚毅品质与学习投入的关系以及未来时间洞察力的中介作用。方法：2022年10月,通过随机抽样的方式对山东省和山西省两所中学的377名初中生采用学习投入量表、坚毅量表、未来时间洞察力量表进行问卷调查,使用SPSS26.0对数据进行独立样本T检验、相关分析和BOOTSTRAP中介效应检验。结果：1）初中生坚毅品质得分为3.166±0.532,学习投入得分为4.559±1.227,未来时间洞察力得分为2.332±0.228。2）坚毅品质与学习投入呈显著正相关（R=0.487,P<0.01）,和未来时间洞察力呈显著正相关（R=0.192,P<0.01）,学习投入和未来时间洞察力呈显著正相关（R=0.319,P<0.01）。坚毅品质对学习投入直接效应显著（效应值为1.021,相对效应值为90.92%）,且未来时间洞察力在坚毅品质和学习投入之间起中介作用（中介效应值为0.108,相对效应值为9.62%）。结论：初中生的学习投入受到坚毅品质的影响,坚毅品质也可以通过未来时间洞察力的中介作用影响学习投入,可以培养个体的未来时间洞察力来促进初中生的学习投入。     

跨区域大气污染联合防治中的地方政府 演化博弈分析

针对大气污染呈现出的复合型、流动性和跨区域的特点,将地方政府在大气污染联合防治中的相互影响总结为“同向外部效应”和“部分排他效应”,应用演化博弈分析法,剖析地方政府之间大气污染联合防治的演化过程和演化结果。研究结果表明：地方政府治污成本的降低、对不治理污染地方政府惩罚力度的加大、地方政府治理大气污染效果的提高、地方政府不治理大气污染可见性的提升、大气污染治理外部性的减弱等都有助于演化博弈的稳定策略向地方政府跨区域联合防治的方向演进,从而有助于提升大气污染的治理效果,达到改善生态环境的目的。     

基于熵权法的江苏生态环境高质量发展评价研究

针对生态环境内涵的多样性,结合传统高质量发展的评价指标,从环境质量、排放强度、污染治理和资源利用4个维度构建生态环境高质量发展评价指标体系,并基于熵权法提出指标量化和评估数据预处理的解决方案。结果表明:2010—2019年江苏生态环境质量水平由“缓慢增长”向“波动下降”转变,污染治理和资源利用成为改善现阶段生态环境质量的重要突破口,政府、社会、企业、个人等主体可从循环经济、人居环境、水环境综合治理角度进行生态环境的整治。     

Bayesian inference for stable Lévy–driven stochastic differential equations with high‐frequency data

In this paper, we consider parametric Bayesian inference for stochastic differential equations driven by a pure‐jump stable Lévy process, which is observed at high frequency. In most cases of practical interest, the likelihood function is not available; hence, we use a quasi‐likelihood and place an associated prior on the unknown parameters. It is shown under regularity conditions that there is a Bernstein–von Mises theorem associated to the posterior. We then develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference, and assisted with theoretical results, we show how to scale Metropolis–Hastings proposals when the frequency of the data grows, in order to prevent the acceptance ratio from going to zero in the large data limit. Our algorithm is presented on numerical examples that help verify our theoretical findings.     

The Complexity of Families Involved in High-Conflict Disputes: A Postseparation Ecological Transactional Framework

The use of the term ‘high conflict’ to describe a wide range of family dynamics after separation and divorce has increased significantly over the years. At the moment, no consensus on the definition of high conflict exists. Lack of definitional clarity hinders the ability for legal and mental health professionals to assess, identify, and effectively intervene with this population. Based on a rapid evidence assessment of 65 empirically based social science studies relevant to high conflict, this article positions high-conflict separation and divorce using an ecological transactional model to better understand risk factors and indicators associated with these families. Authors propose a more comprehensive definition that captures the complexity and interactions of various risk factors and indicators on multiple levels. Positioning high-conflict families using an ecological model identifies several points of intervention professionals can use and the fundamental need for collaboration among stakeholders for effective intervention.     

High value manufacturing (HVM) in the UK: case studies and focus group insights

This paper studies the internal mechanisms that allow organisations to become high value manufacturing (HVM). Using a qualitative methodology, three UK manufacturing companies formed in-depth case studies with semi-structured interviews, observations and historical data. The HVM value matrix of Martinez and co-workers is used to categorise each organisation’s value proposition. Wider benchmarking of the three organisations was carried out against a focus group with an additional seven manufacturing organisations. Thus, data from 10 manufacturing organisations are included in this research. The cases follow the ‘customer intimacy’ HVM discipline. The business processes supporting these value propositions were identified. Interestingly, each organisation’s desired value proposition differs from their current one. ‘Technological integrators’ predominantly rely on new product development (NPD) and Strategy processes, whereas ‘Socialisors’ rely predominantly on Strategy and Customer Relationship processes. Companies can use the findings to better understand their current HVM value proposition and, where necessary, plan their transition to a future desired HVM value proposition.