广州起义败因新探——以八七会议历史局限为逻辑起点

在广州起义失败的多维成因中,一个很重要的层面就是八七会议的历史局限对广州起义产生很大的消极效应,具体来说,八七会议在大革命失败后对革命形势的错误估计、革命策略的教条理解、革命力量的片面判断、革命情绪的盲目执狂等方面间接影响了广州起义领导层在革命时机把握、发动革命力量、组织战略退却、放弃冒险路线等方面的决策,这也是我党早期对民主革命规律认识不足的真实缩影。     

明代东莞地区的科举群体及其历史贡献

明代东莞共考出举人529名、进士76名,在广东各州、县排名中皆为第四;考出庶吉士6名,与南海县并列第三;六次摘取解元桂冠,在各州县名列第五;还出现了18个三代之内至少产生了两个以上举人的科举家族,排名第四;另外,东莞举人在明代初期、中期和后期广东举人总数中所占比例也呈持续上升趋势,反映了科举实力的不断加强。明代东莞科举群体充分发挥其聪明才智,在任官行政、教书育人和著书立说等方面作出了积极的历史贡献。     

Short- and long-term effects of divorce and separation on housing tenure in England and Wales

This paper investigates the effects of marital and non-marital separation on individuals’ housing tenure in England and Wales. We apply competing risks event history models to data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study to analyse the risk of a residential move to different tenure types, for single, married, cohabiting, and separated men and women. Separated individuals are more likely to move and experience a tenure change than those who are single or in a relationship. Among separated people, private renting is the most common outcome of a move; however, women are also likely to move to social renting, whereas men tend to move to homeownership. This pattern persists when we account for time since separation and order of move, indicating a potential long-term effect of separation on housing tenure. This long-term effect is especially pertinent to separated women who cannot afford homeownership.     

Restricted mean survival time as a summary measure of time‐to‐event outcome

Many clinical research studies evaluate a time‐to‐event outcome, illustrate survival functions, and conventionally report estimated hazard ratios to express the magnitude of the treatment effect when comparing between groups. However, it may not be straightforward to interpret the hazard ratio clinically and statistically when the proportional hazards assumption is invalid. In some recent papers published in clinical journals, the use of restricted mean survival time (RMST) or τ ‐year mean survival time is discussed as one of the alternative summary measures for the time‐to‐event outcome. The RMST is defined as the expected value of time to event limited to a specific time point corresponding to the area under the survival curve up to the specific time point. This article summarizes the necessary information to conduct statistical analysis using the RMST, including the definition and statistical properties of the RMST, adjusted analysis methods, sample size calculation, information fraction for the RMST difference, and clinical and statistical meaning and interpretation. Additionally, we discuss how to set the specific time point to define the RMST from two main points of view. We also provide developed SAS codes to determine the sample size required to detect an expected RMST difference with appropriate power and reconstruct individual survival data to estimate an RMST reference value from a reported survival curve.     

气候与人口:历史学视域下“农牧交错带”研究基本线索考察及反思

以往有关历史时期农牧交错带及相关问题研究中，气候与人口因素是两条基本线索，但是通过对时空维度下农牧交错带变迁考察可以发现，气候与人口因素的影响各有偏重，且在不同时期影响程度也有差别。因而本文在考察气候与人口因素对历史时期农牧交错带变迁影响的基础上，认为有三个关键点应加以关注：（1）要区别对待气候与人口因素在不同历史时期的影响程度；（2）注重农牧交错带变动的核心区域"边界地带"；（3）农牧业选择对农牧交错带环境景观变化与生态系统变迁的关系。     

Applications of Bayesian analysis to proof‐of‐concept trial planning and decision making

Decision making is a critical component of a new drug development process. Based on results from an early clinical trial such as a proof of concept trial, the sponsor can decide whether to continue, stop, or defer the development of the drug. To simplify and harmonize the decision‐making process, decision criteria have been proposed in the literature. One of them is to exam the location of a confidence bar relative to the target value and lower reference value of the treatment effect. In this research, we modify an existing approach by moving some of the “stop” decision to “consider” decision so that the chance of directly terminating the development of a potentially valuable drug can be reduced. As Bayesian analysis has certain flexibilities and can borrow historical information through an inferential prior, we apply the Bayesian analysis to the trial planning and decision making. Via a design prior, we can also calculate the probabilities of various decision outcomes in relationship with the sample size and the other parameters to help the study design. An example and a series of computations are used to illustrate the applications, assess the operating characteristics, and compare the performances of different approaches.     

Gender and Power: Sex Segregation in American and Polish Higher Education as a Case Study

This article presents a comparative case study of the manifestation of sex segregation in higher education in the United States and in Poland from the end of the 19th century to the 1930s. The study is guided by a theoretical framework, which is organized around a concept of power and derived from The Sources of Social Power by Michael Mann (1986). In the United States, well-developed capitalism, democracy, and the ideology of separate spheres underlay the high collective power of men, their distributive power over women and—consequently—high levels of sex segregation in higher education. Contrastly, in Poland, weak capitalism and lack of democracy meant less collective and distributive power of men, which produced lower levels of educational sex segregation.     

英国近代早期农业研究两种史学观点的考察

国内外对英国近代早期的农业发展问题的研究从研究方法和着重点上看可分为两种观点:一是马克思主义史学观,运用宏观分析方法,把土地所有权关系的变革作为农业变迁的核心内容.二是资产阶级史学观,多采用微观、个案研究,把近代早期英国农业发展、农业革命的中心内容局限在耕作方法和生产技术的变化上.借鉴两种观点,将会进一步深化该领域的研究.     

神游冥想理解同情--《清初诗坛:卓尔堪与〈遗民诗〉研究》序

历史真相只有一个,而对于历史的评价,却是随着时过事迁,而言人人殊.对于研究者来说,首要的是追寻历史真相.这就要重建一种历史存在情境和社会生活情境,为我们全面准确理解历史真相与先人感情提供坚实的基础.     

对知识经济时代无形资产会计计量的探讨

知识经济时代 ,无形资产地位日益上升 ,现行的无形资产会计计量在计量范围、计量方法及计量基础方面均受到了挑战 ,本文通过对各种计量属性的比较 ,探讨了无形资产理想的计量属性 ,并提出了现实可行的计量方法