Operating Characteristics for Group Sequential Trials Monitored Under Fractional Brownian Motion

Brownian motion has been used to derive stopping boundaries for group sequential trials, however, when we observe dependent increment in the data, fractional Brownian motion is an alternative to be considered to model such data. In this article we compared expected sample sizes and stopping times for different stopping boundaries based on the power family alpha spending function under various values of Hurst coefficient. Results showed that the expected sample sizes and stopping times will decrease and power increases when the Hurst coefficient increases. With same Hurst coefficient, the closer the boundaries are to that of O'Brien-Fleming, the higher the expected sample sizes and stopping times are; however, power has a decreasing trend for values start from H = 0.6 (early analysis), 0.7 (equal space), 0.8 (late analysis). We also illustrate study design changes using results from the BHAT study.     

公正的网络道德审判是否可能?——基于旁观者视角

网络道德审判是对传统道德审判的继承与发展,存在着显著的伦理困境：它理应通过激发正向羞耻感来促进对行为者的伦理教化,但在诸多情况中却因引发负向羞耻感而产生对行为者的伦理排斥。网络道德审判作为一种典型的道德评价形态,可以利用情感主义伦理学中的旁观者视角来加以考察。据此可发现,网络旁观者的同情、想象、事实判断能力存在着诸多困境,同时其群体性特征又进一步加剧了潜在的风险。实现公正的网络道德审判,需要汲取和借鉴“公正的旁观者”的多重意蕴来构建可能的伦理进路。     

“新户改”背景下农民工户籍转换意愿的影响因素研究

基于2019年从广州、福州、郑州和武汉四个城市实地收集的764份数据,以农民工为研究对象,构建理论假设,并采用多元Logistic回归模型探析“新户改”背景下农民工群体户籍转换意愿生成的影响因素。研究发现：农民工越符合经济理性、权利歧视规避和承认渴望的动机特征,其愿意转换为城镇户籍的可能性越大;相反,对这些动力作用机制的偏离或“抑制性”越强,其保留农业户籍的倾向性越高。该发现证明经济、社会和文化三个层面的动力机制在农民工户籍转换意愿形成中的基础性地位和作用,突出作为具有经济人和社会人双重属性的农民工个体在户籍选择中所表现出来的利益追逐导向、权利维护诉求、社会承认渴望的逻辑行为特征,反映农民工市民化的多元动力结构和复杂价值逻辑。     

峰市副榜炉设计文化的传承与保护

永定峰市才子童祖宠设计的副榜炉,注重客家传统生活理念、生态意识、人文因素的融合与协调,是客家民系一笔宝贵的文化财富,承载着客家民众对传统生活的深刻记忆。选材因地制宜精于考究、功能便利实用类型规范、结构科学合理严谨细致、造型朴素大方敦实厚重、色彩简洁淡雅不事雕琢,这些是其鲜明特色。峰市副榜炉设计文化的传承与保护应注重文化理念、工艺技能、人文精神、功能设计四个方面。     

Child Care Arrangements,Division of Household Labor and Other Employment Based Familial Predictors of Marital Adjustment Among Husbands of Employed Females in Pakistan

The primary purpose of the current study was to investigate the influence of division of household labor, child care arrangements, wife’s financial contribution, work-schedule of wife, perception of wife employment and wife’s work preference were contributing to marital adjustment of husbands of working married women. Additionally, it explored the role of wife’s financial contribution, perception of wife’s employment and wife’s work preference in formation of marital adjustment among husbands of working women. The data were collected through a self-structured questionnaire from 283 husbands of employed married women with one year of marital duration and at least one child. The data were collected from the city of Gujrat, province of Punjab, Pakistan. Factor analysis was run for reliability and validity analysis was executed to examine the validity of the existing scales used in the current study. Multiple linear regression analysis was used for model fit. Division of household labor, child care arrangements, wife’s financial contributions, wife’s work-schedule, the perception of wife’s employment, and wife’s work preferences contributed to the marital adjustment of husbands of working married women. Our results seemed to reflect fluctuating dimensions of gender role ideologies among families. Incorporating new predictors of marital adjustment into literature of marriage and family has been a sociological significance of the current study.     

Bayesian sample size determination for phase IIA clinical trials using historical data and semi‐parametric prior's elicitation

The Simon's two‐stage design is the most commonly applied among multi‐stage designs in phase IIA clinical trials. It combines the sample sizes at the two stages in order to minimize either the expected or the maximum sample size. When the uncertainty about pre‐trial beliefs on the expected or desired response rate is high, a Bayesian alternative should be considered since it allows to deal with the entire distribution of the parameter of interest in a more natural way. In this setting, a crucial issue is how to construct a distribution from the available summaries to use as a clinical prior in a Bayesian design. In this work, we explore the Bayesian counterparts of the Simon's two‐stage design based on the predictive version of the single threshold design. This design requires specifying two prior distributions: the analysis prior, which is used to compute the posterior probabilities, and the design prior, which is employed to obtain the prior predictive distribution. While the usual approach is to build beta priors for carrying out a conjugate analysis, we derived both the analysis and the design distributions through linear combinations of B‐splines. The motivating example is the planning of the phase IIA two‐stage trial on anti‐HER2 DNA vaccine in breast cancer, where initial beliefs formed from elicited experts' opinions and historical data showed a high level of uncertainty. In a sample size determination problem, the impact of different priors is evaluated.     

Linking Decision Theory and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: Tradeoffs Between Compliance and Efficacy for Waterborne Disease Interventions

Achieving health gains from the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals of universal coverage for water and sanitation will require interventions that can be widely adopted and maintained. Effectiveness—how an intervention performs based on actual use—as opposed to efficacy will therefore be central to evaluations of new and existing interventions. Incomplete compliance—when people do not always use the intervention and are therefore exposed to contamination—is thought to be responsible for the lower‐than‐expected risk reductions observed from water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions based on their efficacy at removing pathogens. We explicitly incorporated decision theory into a quantitative microbial risk assessment model. Specifically, we assume that the usability of household water treatment (HWT) devices (filters and chlorine) decreases as they become more efficacious due to issues such as taste or flow rates. Simulations were run to examine the tradeoff between device efficacy and usability. For most situations, HWT interventions that trade lower efficacy (i.e., remove less pathogens) for higher compliance (i.e., better usability) contribute substantial reductions in diarrheal disease risk compared to devices meeting current World Health Organization efficacy guidelines. Recommendations that take into account both the behavioral and microbiological properties of treatment devices are likely to be more effective at reducing the burden of diarrheal disease than current standards that only consider efficacy.     

我国民事证据交换制度的反思与完善

证据交换制度作为我国民事审判方式改革进程中的重要内容,对于完善审理结构、提高诉讼效率和质量、实现集中审理具有重要意义.在推进以审判为中心的诉讼制度改革的背景下,针对司法实践中证据交换制度适用率较低的现状,需要进一步完善证据交换制度的程序设计,明确证据交换的实施主体、组织方式及法律效果,从而更好地发挥证据交换制度的作用.     

刑事侦查模式与审判模式的机制冲突

修改后的《刑事诉讼法》第一次出现了'公正审判'一词,在刑事审判阶段大量吸收英美法系当事人主义的审判模式内容,使校辩双方地位趋于平等化。但侦查阶段,我国始终奉行的是职权主义模式,几千年义务本位的法文化背景直接或间接地使犯罪嫌疑人和被告人地位的实际客体化,从而使犯罪嫌疑人和辩护人与国家侦查机关的地位不平等,没有达到'公正侦查',以至于形成'控'、'辩'前提条件不完备的诉讼结构失衡,我们所期待的公正审判将只能是一座空中楼阁。因此笔者试图在我国侦查阶段引入以'弹劾制'侦查现为支撑的当事人主义侦查摸式,使其与当事人主义趋向的庭审相适应、并且适当做好侦查与庭审之间的衔接工作,以完善我国刑事诉讼运行体制。