文天祥判词特点探析

文天祥是南宋著名的民族英雄和杰出的爱国诗人,学人们对他的生平传记、年谱、文学成就乃至戏剧、故事、书法、文物等等青睐有加,研究成果丰硕,而对他于咸淳九年任湖南提刑时所作的5篇判词似无人加以研究。其实,文天祥的判词都是用散文体写成的实判,它们具有事实叙述清楚、理由论述充分、语言简洁明快、表意严谨通俗、论述理由常引经据典等特点,从中可以看出文天祥杰出的司法才能和高明的制判水平,透过判词这面镜子,我们对这位民族英雄、不事二君的忠臣,会有更为深入的理解。     

The Effect of Chair Yoga on Biopsychosocial Changes in English- and Spanish-Speaking Community-Dwelling Older Adults with Lower-Extremity Osteoarthritis

Chair yoga (CY), a mind-body therapy, is a safe nonpharmacological approach for managing osteoarthritis (OA) in older adults who cannot participate in standing exercise. However, there is no linguistically tailored CY program for those with limited English proficiency (LEP). This 2-arm randomized controlled trial compared the effects of a linguistically tailored yoga program (English and Spanish versions) on the outcomes of pain, physical function, and psychosocial factors compared to the effects of a linguistically tailored Health Education Program (HEP; English and Spanish versions). Participants with lower-extremity OA, recruited from 2 community sites, completed the Spanish (n = 40) or English (n = 60) version of twice-weekly 45-min CY or HEP sessions for 8 weeks. Data were collected at baseline, 4 weeks, 8 weeks, and 1- and 3-month follow-ups. English and Spanish CY groups (but neither HEP language group) showed significant decreases in pain interference. Measures of OA symptoms, balance, depression, and social activities were not significantly different between English and Spanish versions of CY and English and Spanish versions of HEP. It was concluded that the Spanish and English versions of CY and HEP were equivalent. Linguistically tailored CY could be implemented in aging-serving communities for persons with LEP.     

Material hardship and depression among low‐income households in South Korea: Differences by household type

With the recent trend of growing poverty in South Korea, low‐income households, particularly elderly‐ and single‐headed households, are at high risk of experiencing material hardship and depression. However, less is known about the association between material hardship and depression by household type in Korea. Using data (N = 2,913) from the Korean Welfare Panel Study and employing several methodological approaches to address the omitted variables bias, this study examined: (i) the association between material hardship and depression among low‐income households, and (ii) whether the association differed by household type. We found that experiencing material hardship was associated with a higher likelihood of being depressed. In addition, we also found that the association between material hardship and depression differed by household type. The magnitude of the association was most pronounced in single‐ and elderly‐headed households. Policy implications to improve well‐being among low‐income households were discussed.     

Estimation of Stratified Mark‐Specific Proportional Hazards Models with Missing Marks

Abstract. An objective of randomized placebo‐controlled preventive HIV vaccine efficacy trials is to assess the relationship between the vaccine effect to prevent infection and the genetic distance of the exposing HIV to the HIV strain represented in the vaccine construct. Motivated by this objective, recently a mark‐specific proportional hazards (PH) model with a continuum of competing risks has been studied, where the genetic distance of the transmitting strain is the continuous ‘mark’ defined and observable only in failures. A high percentage of genetic marks of interest may be missing for a variety of reasons, predominantly because rapid evolution of HIV sequences after transmission before a blood sample is drawn from which HIV sequences are measured. This research investigates the stratified mark‐specific PH model with missing marks where the baseline functions may vary with strata. We develop two consistent estimation approaches, the first based on the inverse probability weighted complete‐case (IPW) technique, and the second based on augmenting the IPW estimator by incorporating auxiliary information predictive of the mark. We investigate the asymptotic properties and finite‐sample performance of the two estimators, and show that the augmented IPW estimator, which satisfies a double robustness property, is more efficient.     

A Hybrid Geometric Phase II/III Clinical Trial Design based on Treatment Failure Time and Toxicity

The problem of comparing several experimental treatments to a standard arises frequently in medical research. Various multi-stage randomized phase II/III designs have been proposed that select one or more promising experimental treatments and compare them to the standard while controlling overall Type I and Type II error rates. This paper addresses phase II/III settings where the joint goals are to increase the average time to treatment failure and control the probability of toxicity while accounting for patient heterogeneity. We are motivated by the desire to construct a feasible design for a trial of four chemotherapy combinations for treating a family of rare pediatric brain tumors. We present a hybrid two-stage design based on two-dimensional treatment effect parameters. A targeted parameter set is constructed from elicited parameter pairs considered to be equally desirable. Bayesian regression models for failure time and the probability of toxicity as functions of treatment and prognostic covariates are used to define two-dimensional covariate-adjusted treatment effect parameter sets. Decisions at each stage of the trial are based on the ratio of posterior probabilities of the alternative and null covariate-adjusted parameter sets. Design parameters are chosen to minimize expected sample size subject to frequentist error constraints. The design is illustrated by application to the brain tumor trial.     

Testing bioequivalence for multiple formulations with power and sample size calculations

Bioequivalence (BE) trials play an important role in drug development for demonstrating the BE between test and reference formulations. The key statistical analysis for BE trials is the use of two one‐sided tests (TOST), which is equivalent to showing that the 90% confidence interval of the relative bioavailability is within a given range. Power and sample size calculations for the comparison between one test formulation and the reference formulation has been intensively investigated, and tables and software are available for practical use. From a statistical and logistical perspective, it might be more efficient to test more than one formulation in a single trial. However, approaches for controlling the overall type I error may be required. We propose a method called multiplicity‐adjusted TOST (MATOST) combining multiple comparison adjustment approaches, such as Hochberg's or Dunnett's method, with TOST. Because power and sample size calculations become more complex and are difficult to solve analytically, efficient simulation‐based procedures for this purpose have been developed and implemented in an R package. Some numerical results for a range of scenarios are presented in the paper. We show that given the same overall type I error and power, a BE crossover trial designed to test multiple formulations simultaneously only requires a small increase in the total sample size compared with a simple 2 × 2 crossover design evaluating only one test formulation. Hence, we conclude that testing multiple formulations in a single study is generally an efficient approach. The R package MATOST is available at https://sites.google.com/site/matostbe/ . Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

环境退化地区家庭人口对土地利用的影响研究——以中国西北毛乌素沙地为例

微观层面模型对于区分不同的人口群体以更好地明确环境退化的责任主体及其原因具有重要价值,对不同的土地利用方式进行经济区分是联接家庭人口特征与土地覆盖结果的重要手段。基于扩展的恰亚诺夫理论框架,文章利用2007—2008年两次调查所获293个农户样本数据,采用OLS和logit多变量模型实证分析毛乌素沙地家庭人口和其他因素对土地利用的影响。研究结果表明:(1)家庭人口因素对毛乌素沙地农户的土地利用产生重要影响;(2)毛乌素沙地主要土地利用的环境影响也遵循家庭生命周期的过程;(3)毛乌素沙地农户在减少有助于土壤修复利用活动的同时面临上升的退化风险。     

基于户籍制度视角的农村劳动力返流现象分析

在城市化快速发展过程中,农村劳动力返流现象受到社会各界的关注。基于当前劳动力返流的现状,从户籍制度的视角分析我国劳动力返流的演进历程,建立农村劳动力返流的理论分析框架,并且解析户籍制度政策效应对农村劳动力返流的影响,最后从减少返流与安置两个角度提出应对我国农村劳动力返流的对策建议。     

现代司法目标与中国法院审判组织改革

中国司法在法院审判组织方面改革的核心问题,就是以确立现代司法为目的和根本要求,将法院内部与现代司法原则相悖的审判组织关系结构变革为以保障审判组织和法官独立行使审判权为目标的审判组织关系结构。应该按照审判独立的要求建构合议庭内部与外部的合理关系结构,以真正有效发挥合议庭的审判功能;应该在法院审判组织改革的整体性框架下,选择更宽阔的视野讨论审判委员会的职能和作用,以符合现代司法的建构与运作要求实现审判委员会自身的制度变革。     

我国城市住宅能源消费特征研究

通过对我国城市住宅能源消费情况的定量研究发现, 自1995-2010年, 我国城市住宅的能源消费量从1 936.72PJ上升至3 742.68PJ;能源结构也发生了较大变化:固体能源比重逐年降低, 从45.6%下降到9.8%, 电力和气体能源比重快速上升, 其中电力由10.7%上升到28.7%, 气体能源由3.9%上升到23.5%。构建城市住宅能源消费结构的数值分析模型, 对我国城市住宅能源消费结构及能源消费效率进行了研究, 在1995-2010年间, 我国城市住宅能源消费结构发生了较大变化, 1995年的能源消费结构中, 厨房·热水占66%, 采暖占26%, 制冷占1%, 照明占2%, 家用电器占6%;2010年的能源消费结构中, 厨房·热水占56%, 采暖占25%, 制冷占6%, 照明占3%, 家用电器占10%。1995-2010年, 我国城市住宅有效能源消费量大幅增长, 从878.64 PJ增至2 445.19 PJ, 住宅能源利用效率提高明显, 从45%上升至65%。