Family Benefits and Fertility: An Econometric Analysis

A population's growth potential is significantly underestimated by conventional calculations of population momentum which assume an immediate drop to replacement level fertility. Here we assume that the growth rate of births linearly declines to zero over a specified time interval, and find simple and intuitively meaningful expressions for the size of the ultimate birth cohort and the resultant population momentum. In particular, we find that the increase in the number of births over the transition is equal to growth at the initial rate for half the time needed to attain a constant birth level. Thus our formula readily calculates the growth potential of a population under a gradual approach to stationarity without the need for a numerical projection. Calculations for actual and hypothetical populations are presented to show the demographic impact of such gradual approaches to zero growth.     

地方公共品供给、人口迁移与户籍制度--Tiebout 理论体系的地方性经验解释

Tiebout 模型是地方财政学的经典理论,后世从自利动机、财政外部性和公共品资本化等角度对其进行的拓展和修正,极大丰富了该理论的内涵,形成了一个对现实具有强解释力的理论体系。中国经济的发展,使国内地方公共品供给、人口迁移等问题越来越接近这一理论体系所勾勒的情形。本文利用其对江西的地方性经验进行解释,揭示了国内居民跨城市落户的投资移民性质,以及城市户籍管理和人口极差化流动的制度诱因。     

China’s Household Tradition and Its Rural Development Path: With Reference to Traditional Russian and Indian Village Communities

Sources of tradition that produce a lasting influence upon modern society are fundamental to that society’s development. Among Eastern sources of tradition, the village systems of Russia and India are very unlike the Chinese household system, a system that served as the foundation for China’s unique path of rural development. This system includes the following features: the organization of agricultural operations on the basis of household operations; an economy where agriculture, industry and commerce complement each other on the basis of their integration at the household level; forms of agricultural cooperation based on mutual assistance and cooperation among households; and a system of rural governance based on the joint governance by household and state. In China’s rural development process, the household system, though at one time discarded, still constitutes the institutional backdrop for current and future rural development.     

Registered domestic partnerships among gay men and lesbians: the role of economic factors

In this paper, we predict the demand for a marriage-like status—registered domestic partnership–among same-sex couples. Domestic partnership in the state of California now comes with almost all of the rights and responsibilities of marriage that a state can provide. We use the LGBT (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender) Tobacco Use Survey conducted by the California Department of Health and the Field Research Corporation in 2003. From this telephone survey, we use a probability sample of 1,002 lesbian and gay individuals in California. Using multinomial probit models of partnership status (single, not cohabiting, cohabiting, or registered), we find limited evidence of economic motivations in the choice to register. Gay men’s likelihood of registration rises with income; lesbians’ probability of registration rises with age. Couples with longer duration are more likely to register, suggesting that registration and duration are complementary signals of commitment and possibly of the need for rights and benefits of registration.

农户家庭储蓄借贷行为的实证分析--以湖北监利县178户调查为例

农户的储蓄目的相当明确--为了社会保障.民间借贷行为是正规金融组织弱化农村信贷服务功能的结果.民间借贷尽管以"亲情"和"友情"等借贷为主,借贷中"立字据"与"付息"比例也不占优,但不少的付息的案例表明"高利贷"行为在农村相当普遍.乡村干部和村级组织在其中扮演极不光彩的角色,已成为"高利贷"放贷主体.农民在求贷的途径选择上,优先选择"高利贷",是因为求贷的成功率与高利息相比,成功率更为重要.     

“民工荒”现象成因及对策分析

从去年下半年开始出现的“民工荒”打破了我国劳动力“无限供给”的神话,对我国未来经济增长产生了不容忽视的影响。本文对“民工荒”之所以出现作了原因分析,认为当前宏观经济形势和新的二元社会结构是导致“民工荒”的深层次原因,并对此提出了相应的对策。     

户籍制度改革:一个合作博弈框架内的分析

尽管已经有很多人研究了户籍制度改革 ,但是这项研究仍然有待深入。与已经有的研究不同 ,本文认为户籍制度的改革过程就是一个改革所涉及的利益各方博弈的过程。目前 ,户籍制度改革出现了看似矛盾的现象 :一方面 ,全国范围内尤其是中小城镇的户籍制度改革进展相当快 ;另一方面 ,大城市的户籍制度改革却举步维艰。不同的地区户籍制度改革进展的差异显然需要更有力的解释 ,而不是一味指责。因此 ,本文试图在一个合作博弈的框架内对户籍制度改革中的问题做出合理的解释     

我国空巢老人家庭状态

据全国第五次人口普查资料 ,本文研究了我国空巢老人年龄性别、户口、婚姻及地区构成 ,探索了空巢老人家庭产生的问题和形成的原因 ,提出了空巢老人家庭生活照料对策和建议。     

Trajectories of Fertility and Household Composition in the Demographic Profile of the Czech Republic

The household composition matrix is a representation of the demographic structure of households, specific to age groups of household members and household heads. As such, the matrix reflects also the environmental conditions, housing in particular, that mould households' demographic structure. By specifically depicting the presence of children in households, household composition could be viewed as gauging fertility within the context of housing conditions. This stance is examined in an application to Czech census data for the year 1991, at the commencement of an intense process of socio-economic transformation that accompanied the collapse of communism across Eastern Europe. Within this process, housing had an inadvertent impact upon the structure of households in general, and upon fertility decline in particular. By using the standard matrix representation of household composition, correspondence between trajectories of age-specific fertility and household composition emerge throughout the Czech Republic. This correspondence illustrates the potential household composition analysis carries for fertility measurement and estimation in rapidly changing economic environments.     

论独生子女家庭人力资本投资的性别偏好

家庭是孩子人力资本投资的主要单位,人力资本理论存在性别盲点,忽略了人力资本投资的社会性别因素。本文从社会性别视角研究独生子女家庭人力资本投资行为,分析了影响独生子女家庭人力资本投资的人口因素、经济因素和社会性别文化因素。研究发现,独生子女家庭中女孩人力资本投资得到了积极的改善,但社会性别仍然影响着家庭人力资本投资的性别偏好,独生子女家庭通过人力资本投资“表现社会性别”。