农户金融需求影响因素及其差异性——基于Probit模型和陕西286户农户调查数据的分析

以陕西省铜川市286户农户调查数据为基础,运用Probit计量经济模型,对农户金融需求的影响因素及其差异性进行了实证分析。结果显示:户主特征、家庭特征、生产经营特征、收支情况及农村金融供给市场特征等因素对农户的金融需求都有不同程度的影响,不同特征组农户金融需求的影响因素差异性显著。论文认为:应鼓励社会资本向农村金融市场转移,充分调动正规金融机构和非正规金融的积极性;在农村金融供给上,要针对不同特征农户金融需求特点,优化供给资源,提高农村金融市场效率。     

论中国国家豁免立法中的初审法院——由“中铁刚果(金)案”谈起

中铁刚果(金)案经香港两级法院历时三年四次审理,最终于2011年9月8日尘埃落定,香港终审法院作出最终判决,遵循全国人大常委会释法结果,刚果(金)具有绝对外交豁免权,其在香港免于偿还欠款。对任何国家而言,涉及外国国家之诉通常十分复杂,其影响力远大于普通的涉外民商事争议。涉外国国家案件的重要性决定其应当由较高级别法院进行初审,在我国,中级人民法院因其法官自身法律知识储备不足和涉外审判经验欠缺等原因决定其不适宜作为初审管辖法院,最高院现有的受案规模及其主要职能和两审制的司法原则也决定其不应成为初审法院,中国在国家豁免立法时应确定由高级人民法院对涉外国国家案件进行初审管辖。     

刑事速裁案件宜实行有限二审制——基于1 055份裁判文书的实证分析

刑事速裁程序首选效率价值，但公正价值的基础性地位不能抛弃。基于被告人认罪认罚的实质，速裁案件的对抗性极小，被告人不服一审判决而上诉的可能性也应该微乎其微。但在实践中，被告人以量刑过重为由上诉或空白上诉后又撤回上诉，随意否认认罪认罚协议，这些程序滥用的行为降低了刑事速裁程序的效率。与此同时，速裁案件一审判决中的错误应当允许通过第二审程序得到纠正。一审终审制观点重视效率价值但忽视公正价值，其理论根据与实践基础不足。两审终审制观点将速裁程序的效率优位限于一审、排除于二审，对上诉权滥用行为予以容忍。速裁案件宜实行有限二审制，在保留检察机关抗诉权的同时，改无因上诉为有因上诉，对上诉理由进行审查，从而避免无实质性错误的案件进入二审，以保持速裁程序的效率优势。     

Designing cancer immunotherapy trials with delayed treatment effect using maximin efficiency robust statistics

The indirect mechanism of action of immunotherapy causes a delayed treatment effect, producing delayed separation of survival curves between the treatment groups, and violates the proportional hazards assumption. Therefore using the log‐rank test in immunotherapy trial design could result in a severe loss efficiency. Although few statistical methods are available for immunotherapy trial design that incorporates a delayed treatment effect, recently, Ye and Yu proposed the use of a maximin efficiency robust test (MERT) for the trial design. The MERT is a weighted log‐rank test that puts less weight on early events and full weight after the delayed period. However, the weight function of the MERT involves an unknown function that has to be estimated from historical data. Here, for simplicity, we propose the use of an approximated maximin test, the V₀ test, which is the sum of the log‐rank test for the full data set and the log‐rank test for the data beyond the lag time point. The V₀ test fully uses the trial data and is more efficient than the log‐rank test when lag exits with relatively little efficiency loss when no lag exists. The sample size formula for the V₀ test is derived. Simulations are conducted to compare the performance of the V₀ test to the existing tests. A real trial is used to illustrate cancer immunotherapy trial design with delayed treatment effect.     

南京市地铁站名的社会语言学分析

地铁站名往往能彰显一座城市的历史民俗风貌和社会文化特色，南京地铁站名的语言文化研究对于理解南京地铁站名及其文化内涵具有重要意义。文章主要以南京地铁8条路线的145个站名为研究对象，对这些站名进行社会语言学分析，并认为：南京市地铁站的命名以道路标识、居住地、景点、商圈、交通枢纽站和知名高校为主要参照，其中三、四、五字音节居多，有着指位性强、简洁明了和易识易记的特点。南京地铁站名承载了南京的历史、经济、宗教和社会文化，体现了南京城发展历史性与时代性的交融。     

Optimal composite scores for longitudinal clinical trials under the linear mixed effects model

Clinical trials of chronic, progressive conditions use rate of change on continuous measures as the primary outcome measure, with slowing of progression on the measure as evidence of clinical efficacy. For clinical trials with a single prespecified primary endpoint, it is important to choose an endpoint with the best signal‐to‐noise properties to optimize statistical power to detect a treatment effect. Composite endpoints composed of a linear weighted average of candidate outcome measures have also been proposed. Composites constructed as simple sums or averages of component tests, as well as composites constructed using weights derived from more sophisticated approaches, can be suboptimal, in some cases performing worse than individual outcome measures. We extend recent research on the construction of efficient linearly weighted composites by establishing the often overlooked connection between trial design and composite performance under linear mixed effects model assumptions and derive a formula for calculating composites that are optimal for longitudinal clinical trials of known, arbitrary design. Using data from a completed trial, we provide example calculations showing that the optimally weighted linear combination of scales can improve the efficiency of trials by almost 20% compared with the most efficient of the individual component scales. Additional simulations and analytical results demonstrate the potential losses in efficiency that can result from alternative published approaches to composite construction and explore the impact of weight estimation on composite performance. Copyright © 2016. The Authors. Pharmaceutical Statistics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Household‐Level Coastal Adaptation and Its Drivers: A Systematic Case Study Review

Evidence‐based information on household‐level adaptation is an important element of integrated management of vulnerable coastal regions. A growing number of empirical studies deal with household‐level adaptation at the coast in different regions. This article provides a systematic review of these studies. We analyze studies according to how households in different parts of the world are currently adapting, or how they are intending to adapt, and identify explanatory factors for adaptation behavior and intention. We find that households implement a broad range of adaptation measures and that adaptation behavior is explained by individual factors such as socioeconomic and cognitive variables, experience, and perceived responsibilities. Nonpersonal characteristics have also been used to explain adaptation behavior and intention but have not been extensively investigated. Few studies employ qualitative research methods and use inductive approaches as well as models stemming from behavioral economics. Our findings suggest that coastal risk management policies should communicate the efficacy of household‐level adaptation, in addition to information about flood risk, in order to encourage coastal households in their adaptation activities. In this context, we discuss the role of resources and responsibility of households for their adaptation behavior. We describe the lessons learnt and formulate a research agenda on household‐level adaptation to coastal flood risk. In practice, coastal risk management policies should further promote individually driven adaptation by integrating it in adaptation strategies and processes.     

区县电视台办好舆论监督节目的路径及启示——以重庆市永川区电视台《城市扫描》栏目为例

舆论导向本身就包含舆论监督。作为基层媒体的区县电视台，不能以“覆盖面积小、监督者与被监督者容易见面、害怕家丑外扬”等为借口放弃舆论监督。区县电视台当然也能够办好舆论监督栏目的节目。重庆市永川电视台从2007年5月起开设的《城市扫描》栏目，秉承“扫描城市空间，关注百姓生活，针砭陈风陋习，提升城市品质”的宗旨，勇于承担媒体责任，其成功实践可以充分地说明区县电视台有能力办好舆论监督节目。     

和谐视野下我国刑事审判监督程序的完善

随着我国市场经济和民主政治的发展,我国刑事审判监督程序存在着诉讼理念落后于时代发展,启动事由和启动主体规定的过于宽泛等诸多问题.因此,应从更新司法理念,取消人民法院主动提起刑事再审程序的资格,合理界定启动我国刑事审判监督程序的理由,提高再审程序审理法院的级别,限制再审次数等方面加以完善,使之最大限度地维护司法公正,保护...     

论未成年人取保候审的风险评估机制

通过建立未成年人取保候审的风险评估机制,可以有效降低诉讼成本,实现司法公正。对于风险评估的主体、方式、内容和形式进行制度设计,并与取保候审的保证方式相衔接,充分保障未成年人的合法权益,实现司法公正和权威。