反向抵押贷款:养老保障新视角

我国正快速步入老龄化社会,养老压力日益突出,传统养老模式已不能满足市场经济条件下人们对养老的需求。作为避免老龄化危机的有效途径,反向抵押贷款在美国取得了巨大的成功。文章分析了在我国实施反向抵押贷款的必要性和可行性,并指出了存在的风险。     

房价上涨对我国人口出生率的影响——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

人口数量和结构是影响我国可持续发展的关键因素,住房是人民群众安居乐业的刚需。近年来,我国人口出生率持续下降。为了实现经济高质量发展,缓解人口危机是当前亟待解决的重要问题。为了探究房价上涨对于我国人口出生率的影响,利用31个省级行政区2010—2019年的面板数据和加权最小二乘法进行实证分析,结果表明：房价上涨对人口出生率产生显著的负向影响,住房价格平均上涨1%将导致人口出生率下降0.13%~0.22%;房价上涨对人口出生率的影响在东部省份以挤出效应为主、在中西部省份是以财富效应为主。当前,通过遏制住房投资投机性需求、给予“刚需”人群购房贷款优惠、适量增加东部省份土地供给等手段,可以助力解决我国当前的人口问题。     

现代信用风险度量模型的实证比较与适用性分析

本文通过实证比较分析发现,现代信用风险度量模型对银行贷款的违约率、贷款损失和损失率的预测结果的差异性较大;但信用监测模型和信用风险附加法所预测的经济资本配置比例不仅符合巴塞尔协议对银行贷款经济资本的要求,也略大于实际应该配置的比例,实证表明了它们对度量我国商业银行贷款组合的信用风险具有较好的适用性.此外,本文也充分验证了借款人信用等级的不同,银行贷款经济资本配置的比例会有显著性的差异.     

不同规模农地抵押贷款可得性研究

以南阳市427户农户调查数据为样本,运用二元Logit回归模型对三类不同土地规模农户的农地抵押贷款可得性及其影响因素进行分析。结果发现,户主年龄、文化程度、家庭收入、房屋价值、社会资本、对贷款政策了解度及土地规模差异均对农户农地抵押贷款可得性具有显著影响。其中,家庭收入与房屋价值是影响不同土地规模农户农地抵押贷款可得性的共同因素,土地规模是影响农地抵押贷款可得性最为直接的关键性因素,随着土地规模增加,金融机构贷款审批更注重农户个人信用程度、社会资本和风险保障措施。     

促进小额贷款公司健康发展的政策体系研究

小额贷款是金融制度的创新,是对现代金融体系的提升和扬弃。小额贷款公司等微型金融是国家金融系统的必要组成部分,是国家普惠金融体系的一个特殊机构。小额贷款公司的出现延伸了金融服务的广度和深度,在一定程度上缓冲了银行的信贷风险,也使得金融体系更具包容性,从而完善了金融支持经济的功能。小额信贷不仅能促进一国的经济增长,也会丰富金融体系和金融监管的内涵。应设计出更加符合发展需求的政策体系,使小贷公司有更好的发展愿景。     

Postdisaster Housing Stages: A Markov Chain Approach to Model Sequences and Duration Based on Social Vulnerability

Housing recovery is an unequal and complex process presumed to occur in four stages: emergency shelter, temporary shelter, temporary housing, and permanent housing. This work questions the four-stage typology and examines how different types of shelter align with multiple housing recovery stages given different levels of social vulnerability. This article also presents a Markov chain model of the postdisaster housing recovery process that focuses on the experience of the household. The model predicts the sequence and timing of a household going through housing recovery, capturing households that end in either permanent housing or a fifth possible stage of failure. The probability of a household transitioning through the stages is computed using a transition probability matrix (TPM). The TPM is assembled using proposed transition probability models that vary with the social vulnerability of the household. Monte Carlo techniques are applied to demonstrate the range of sequences and timing that households experience going through the housing recovery process. A set of computational rules are established for sending a household to the fifth stage, representing a household languishing in unstable housing. This predictive model is exemplified on a virtual community, Centerville, where following a severe earthquake scenario, differences in housing recovery times exceed four years. The Centerville analysis results in nearly 5% of households languishing in unstable housing, thereby failing to reach housing recovery. These findings highlight the disparate trajectories experienced by households with different levels of social vulnerability. Recommendations are provided at the end for more equitable postdisaster recovery policies.     

The misunderstood consequences of Shelley v. Kraemer

Shelley v. Kraemer (1948) was a landmark civil rights ruling, in which the Supreme Court held that private racial covenants could not be enforced by the state to evict black buyers of “restricted” homes. Fair housing scholars have generally dismissed or downplayed the practical effects of Shelley, since other forms of housing discrimination remained very powerful. Using spatial lag models and detailed geographic data on the location of covenants and patterns of intra-urban black migration, we compare the role of Shelley with other forces shaping mid-century neighborhood change. We find that Shelley precipitated white-to-black neighborhood transitions after 1948 and changed the nature of the dual housing market in important ways. We also show that increased black mobility produced a sharp increase in intra-black economic segregation during the 1950s and 1960s.     

‘Growing Old’ in Shelters and ‘On the Street’: Experiences of Older Homeless People

Homelessness among older people in Canada is both a growing concern, and an emerging field of study. This article reports thematic results of qualitative interviews with 40 people aged 46 to 75, carried out as part of a mixed-methods study of older people who are homeless in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Our participants included people with histories of homelessness (n = 14) and persons new to homelessness in later life (n = 26). Interviews focused on experiences at the intersections of aging and homelessness including social relationships, the challenges of living on the streets and in shelters in later life, and the future. This article outlines the 5 main themes that capture the experience of homelessness for our participants: age exacerbates worries; exclusion and isolation; managing significant challenges; shifting needs and realities; and resilience, strength, and hope. Together, these findings underscore the need for specific programs geared to the unique needs of older people who are homeless.     

Housing hardship and energy insecurity among native-born and immigrant low-income families with children in the United States

The costs for rent and utilities account for the largest share of living expenses, yet these two critical dimensions of material hardship have seldom been examined concurrently in population-based studies. This paper employs multivariate statistical analysis using American Community Survey data to demonstrate the relative risk ratio of low-income renter-occupied households with children experiencing ‘rent burden', ‘energy insecurity', or a ‘double burden’ as opposed to no burden. Findings suggest that low-income households are more likely to experience these economic hardships in general but that specific groups are disproportionately burdened in different ways. For instance, whereas immigrants are more likely to experience rental burden, they are less likely to experience energy insecurity and are also spared from the double burden. In contrast, native-born African Americans are more likely than all other groups to experience the double burden. These results may be driven by the housing stock available to certain groups due to racial residential segregation, decisions regarding the quality of housing low-income householders are able to afford, as well as home-country values, such as modest living and energy conservation practices, among immigrant families. This paper also points to important policy gaps in safety net benefits related to housing and energy targeting low-income households.     

浙江农村青年创业小额贷款项目在基层的实施效果研究———以乐清市为例

浙江农村青年创业小额贷款项目自推出以来受到浙江基层创业青年广泛关注,该项小额贷款制度申请程序简便、担保形式灵活、政府扶持力度逐年加大,已逐步发展成为基层创业青年融资的主要途径之一.近年来,在浙江“两创”总战略鼓励下,农村青年创业小额贷款项目发展前景广阔、发展势头良好,同时在担保、风险控制、贷款覆盖面等方面也不乏矛盾和困惑